A statistical model to predict and analyze air surface temperature based on remotely sensed observations

Air surface temperature (AST) is a crucial importance element for many applications such as hydrology, agriculture, and climate change studies. The aim of this study is to develop regression equation for calculating AST and to analyze and investigate the effects of atmospheric parameters (O3, CH4, CO, H2Ovapor, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)) on the AST value in Iraq. Dataset retrieved from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) at EOS Aqua Satellite, spanning the years of 2003 to 2016, and multiple linear regression were used to achieve the objectives of the study. For the study period, the five atmospheric parameters were highly correlated (R, 0.855-0.958) with predicted AST. Statistical analyses in terms of β showed that OLR (0.310 to 1.053) contributes significantly in enhancing AST values. Comparisons among selected five stations (Mosul, Kanaqin, Rutba, Baghdad, and Basra) for the year 2010 showed a close agreement between the predicted and observed AST from AIRS, with values ranging from 0.9 to 1.5 K and for ground stations data, within 0.9 to 2.6 K. To make more complete analysis, also, comparison between predicted and observed AST from AIRS for four selected month in 2016 (January, April, July, and October) has been carried out. The result showed a high correlation coefficient (R, 0.87 and 0.95) with less variability (RMSE ≤ 1.9) for all months studied, indicating model's capability and accuracy. In general, the results indicate the advantage of using the AIRS data and the regression analysis to investigate the impact of the atmospheric parameters on AST over the study area.