The Impact of Meteorological Factors on Communicable Disease Incidence and Its Projection: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND: Climate change poses a real challenge and has contributed to causing the emergence and re-emergence of many communicable diseases of public health importance. Here, we reviewed scientific studies on the relationship between meteorological factors and the occurrence of dengue, malaria, cholera, and leptospirosis, and synthesized the key findings on communicable disease projection in the event of global warming.

METHOD: This systematic review was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) 2020 flow checklist. Four databases (Web of Science, Ovid MEDLINE, Scopus, EBSCOhost) were searched for articles published from 2005 to 2020. The eligible articles were evaluated using a modified scale of a checklist designed for assessing the quality of ecological studies.

RESULTS: A total of 38 studies were included in the review. Precipitation and temperature were most frequently associated with the selected climate-sensitive communicable diseases. A climate change scenario simulation projected that dengue, malaria, and cholera incidence would increase based on regional climate responses.

CONCLUSION: Precipitation and temperature are important meteorological factors that influence the incidence of climate-sensitive communicable diseases. Future studies need to consider more determinants affecting precipitation and temperature fluctuations for better simulation and prediction of the incidence of climate-sensitive communicable diseases.