Methods: We developed a non-invasive test named the acNASH index that combines serum creatinine and aspartate aminotransferase levels in a derivation cohort of 390 Chinese NAFLD patients admitted to the hepatology center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University (China) between December 2016 and September 2019 and subsequently validated in five external cohorts of different ethnicities of patients with biopsy-confirmed NAFLD (pooled n=1,089).

Findings: The performance of the acNASH index for identifying NASH (defined as NAFLD activity score ≥5 with score of ≥1 for each steatosis, lobular inflammation and ballooning) was good in the derivation cohort with an area under receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) of 0·818 (95%CI 0·777-0·860). A cutoff of acNASH index <4·15 gave a sensitivity (Se) of 91%, a specificity (Sp) of 48% and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 83% for ruling-out NASH, conversely, a cutoff of acNASH >7·73 gave a Sp of 91%, Se of 53% and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 85% for ruling-in NASH. In the pooled validation cohort (n=1,089), the diagnostic performance of the index was also good with AUROC=0·805 (95%CI 0·780-0·830), NPV of 93% for ruling-out NASH and PPV of 73% for ruling-in NASH. Subgroup analyses showed similar performance in patients with diabetes or subjects with normal serum transaminase levels.

Interpretation: The acNASH index shows promising utility as a simple non-invasive biomarker for diagnosing NASH among adults with biopsy-proven NAFLD of different ethnicities from different countries.

METHODS: This prospective study included a derivation cohort before validation in multiple international cohorts. The derivation cohort was a cross-sectional, multicentre study of patients aged 18 years or older, scheduled to have a liver biopsy for suspicion of NAFLD at seven tertiary care liver centres in England. This was a prespecified secondary outcome of a study for which the primary endpoints have already been reported. Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography and controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) measured by FibroScan device were combined with aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), or AST:ALT ratio. To identify those patients with NASH, an elevated NAS, and significant fibrosis, the best fitting multivariable logistic regression model was identified and internally validated using boot-strapping. Score calibration and discrimination performance were determined in both the derivation dataset in England, and seven independent international (France, USA, China, Malaysia, Turkey) histologically confirmed cohorts of patients with NAFLD (external validation cohorts). This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01985009.

FINDINGS: Between March 20, 2014, and Jan 17, 2017, 350 patients with suspected NAFLD attending liver clinics in England were prospectively enrolled in the derivation cohort. The most predictive model combined LSM, CAP, and AST, and was designated FAST (FibroScan-AST). Performance was satisfactory in the derivation dataset (C-statistic 0·80, 95% CI 0·76-0·85) and was well calibrated. In external validation cohorts, calibration of the score was satisfactory and discrimination was good across the full range of validation cohorts (C-statistic range 0·74-0·95, 0·85; 95% CI 0·83-0·87 in the pooled external validation patients' cohort; n=1026). Cutoff was 0·35 for sensitivity of 0·90 or greater and 0·67 for specificity of 0·90 or greater in the derivation cohort, leading to a positive predictive value (PPV) of 0·83 (84/101) and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 0·85 (93/110). In the external validation cohorts, PPV ranged from 0·33 to 0·81 and NPV from 0·73 to 1·0.

INTERPRETATION: The FAST score provides an efficient way to non-invasively identify patients at risk of progressive NASH for clinical trials or treatments when they become available, and thereby reduce unnecessary liver biopsy in patients unlikely to have significant disease.

METHODS: A total of 1924 patients with biopsy-proven nonalcoholic fatty liver disease from 10 centers in Asia, Australia, and Europe were included. The blood test MACK-3 was calculated for all patients. FibroScan-aspartate aminotransferase score (FAST), an elastography-based test for fibrotic NASH, also was available in a subset of 655 patients. Fibrotic NASH was defined as the presence of NASH on liver biopsy with a Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Activity Score of 4 or higher and fibrosis stage of F2 or higher according to the NASH Clinical Research Network scoring system.

RESULTS: The area under the receiver operating characteristic of MACK-3 for fibrotic NASH was 0.791 (95% CI 0.768-0.814). Sensitivity at the previously published MACK-3 threshold of less than 0.135 was 91% and specificity at a greater than 0.549 threshold was 85%. The MACK-3 area under the receiver operating characteristic was not affected by age, sex, diabetes, or body mass index. MACK-3 and FAST results were well correlated (Spearman correlation coefficient, 0.781; P < .001). Except for an 8% higher rate of patients included in the grey zone, MACK-3 provided similar accuracy to that of FAST. Both tests included 27% of patients in their rule-in zone, with 85% specificity and 35% false positives (screen failure rate).

METHODS: Individual data were collected from 14 registry centers on patients with biopsy-proven non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), and in all patients, circulating CK-18 M30 levels were measured. Individuals with a NAFLD activity score (NAS) ≥5 with a score of ≥1 for each of steatosis, ballooning, and lobular inflammation were diagnosed as having definite NASH; individuals with a NAS ≤2 and no fibrosis were diagnosed as having non-alcoholic fatty liver (NAFL).

METHODS: This international study included seven adult cohorts with suspected NAFLD who underwent liver biopsy, LSM and blood sampling during routine clinical practice or screening for trials. The population was randomly divided into a training set and an internal validation set, on which the best-fitting logistic regression model was built, and performance and goodness of fit were assessed, respectively. Furthermore, both scores were externally validated on two large cohorts. Cut-offs for high sensitivity and specificity were derived in the training set to rule-out and rule-in cirrhosis or AF and then tested in the validation set and compared to FIB-4 and LSM.

RESULTS: Each score combined LSM, AST/ALT ratio, platelets, sex and diabetes status, as well as age for Agile 3+. Calibration plots for Agile 4 and Agile 3+ indicated satisfactory to excellent goodness of fit. Agile 4 and Agile 3+ outperformed FIB-4 and LSM in terms of AUROC, percentage of patients with indeterminate results and positive predictive value to rule-in cirrhosis or AF.

CONCLUSIONS: The two novel non-invasive scores improve identification of cirrhosis or AF among individuals with NAFLD attending liver clinics and reduce the need for liver biopsy in this population.

OBJECTIVE: To study the prognostic implications of baseline levels and dynamic changes of the vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE)-based scores developed for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis (Agile 3+) and cirrhosis (Agile 4) in patients with MASLD.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cohort study included data from a natural history cohort of patients with MASLD who underwent VCTE examination at 16 tertiary referral centers in the US, Europe, and Asia from February 2004 to January 2023, of which the data were collected prospectively at 14 centers. Eligible patients were adults aged at least 18 years with hepatic steatosis diagnosed by histologic methods (steatosis in ≥5% of hepatocytes) or imaging studies (ultrasonography, computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, or controlled attenuation parameter ≥248 dB/m by VCTE).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was liver-related events (LREs), defined as hepatocellular carcinoma or hepatic decompensation (ascites, variceal hemorrhage, hepatic encephalopathy, or hepatorenal syndrome), liver transplant, and liver-related deaths. The Agile scores were compared with histologic and 8 other noninvasive tests.

RESULTS: A total of 16 603 patients underwent VCTE examination at baseline (mean [SD] age, 52.5 [13.7] years; 9600 [57.8%] were male). At a median follow-up of 51.7 (IQR, 25.2-85.2) months, 316 patients (1.9%) developed LREs. Both Agile 3+ and Agile 4 scores classified fewer patients between the low and high cutoffs than most fibrosis scores and achieved the highest discriminatory power in predicting LREs (integrated area under the time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.89). A total of 10 920 patients (65.8%) had repeated VCTE examination at a median interval of 15 (IQR, 11.3-27.7) months and were included in the serial analysis. A total of 81.9% of patients (7208 of 8810) had stable Agile 3+ scores and 92.6% of patients (8163 of 8810) had stable Agile 4 scores (same risk categories at both assessments). The incidence of LREs was 0.6 per 1000 person-years in patients with persistently low Agile 3+ scores and 30.1 per 1000 person-years in patients with persistently high Agile 3+ scores. In patients with high Agile 3+ score at baseline, a decrease in the score by more than 20% was associated with substantial reduction in the risk of LREs. A similar trend was observed for the Agile 4 score, although it missed more LREs in the low-risk group.

METHODS: This was an individual participant data meta-analysis for the performance of NITs against liver biopsy for MASH+F2-4, MASH+F2-3 and MASH+F4. Index tests were the FibroScan-AST (FAST) score, liver stiffness measured using vibration-controlled transient elastography (LSM-VCTE), the fibrosis-4 score (FIB-4) and the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS). Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) and thresholds including those that achieved 34% SFR were reported.

RESULTS: We included 2281 unique cases. The prevalence of MASH+F2-4, MASH+F2-3 and MASH+F4 was 31%, 24% and 7%, respectively. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curves for MASH+F2-4 were .78, .75, .68 and .57 for FAST, LSM-VCTE, FIB-4 and NFS. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curves for MASH+F2-3 were .73, .67, .60, .58 for FAST, LSM-VCTE, FIB-4 and NFS. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curves for MASH+F4 were .79, .84, .81, .76 for FAST, LSM-VCTE, FIB-4 and NFS. The sequential combination of FIB-4 and LSM-VCTE for the detection of MASH+F2-3 with threshold of .7 and 3.48, and 5.9 and 20 kPa achieved SFR of 67% and sensitivity of 60%, detecting 15 true positive cases from a theoretical group of 100 participants at the prevalence of 24%.

METHODS AND RESULTS: This was an individual patient data meta-analysis of 1780 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD and T2D. The index tests of interest were FIB-4, NAFLD Fibrosis Score (NFS), aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography, and AGILE 3+. The target conditions were advanced fibrosis, NASH, and fibrotic NASH(NASH plus F2-F4 fibrosis). The diagnostic performance of noninvasive tests. individually or in sequential combination, was assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and by decision curve analysis. Comparison with 2278 NAFLD patients without T2D was also made. In NAFLD with T2D LSM and AGILE 3+ outperformed, both NFS and FIB-4 for advanced fibrosis (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve:LSM 0.82, AGILE 3+ 0.82, NFS 0.72, FIB-4 0.75, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index 0.68; p < 0.001 of LSM-based versus simple serum tests), with an uncertainty area of 12%-20%. The combination of serum-based with LSM-based tests for advanced fibrosis led to a reduction of 40%-60% in necessary LSM tests. Decision curve analysis showed that all scores had a modest net benefit for ruling out advanced fibrosis at the risk threshold of 5%-10% of missing advanced fibrosis. LSM and AGILE 3+ outperformed both NFS and FIB-4 for fibrotic NASH (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve:LSM 0.79, AGILE 3+ 0.77, NFS 0.71, FIB-4 0.71; p < 0.001 of LSM-based versus simple serum tests). All noninvasive scores were suboptimal for diagnosing NASH.

DESIGN: Individual patient data meta-analysis of studies evaluating LSM-VCTE against liver histology was conducted. FIB-4 and NFS were computed where possible. Sensitivity, specificity and area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) were calculated. Biomarkers were assessed individually and in sequential combinations.

RESULTS: Data were included from 37 primary studies (n=5735; 45% women; median age: 54 years; median body mass index: 30 kg/m2; 33% had type 2 diabetes; 30% had advanced fibrosis). AUROCs of individual LSM-VCTE, FIB-4 and NFS for advanced fibrosis were 0.85, 0.76 and 0.73. Sequential combination of FIB-4 cut-offs (<1.3; ≥2.67) followed by LSM-VCTE cut-offs (<8.0; ≥10.0 kPa) to rule-in or rule-out advanced fibrosis had sensitivity and specificity (95% CI) of 66% (63-68) and 86% (84-87) with 33% needing a biopsy to establish a final diagnosis. FIB-4 cut-offs (<1.3; ≥3.48) followed by LSM cut-offs (<8.0; ≥20.0 kPa) to rule out advanced fibrosis or rule in cirrhosis had a sensitivity of 38% (37-39) and specificity of 90% (89-91) with 19% needing biopsy.

METHODS AND RESULTS: A multidisciplinary panel of fifty-two international experts comprising Hepatologists, Endocrinologists, Diabetologists, Cardiologists and Family Physicians from six continents (Asia, Europe, North America, South America, Africa and Oceania) participated in a formal Delphi survey and developed consensus statements on the association between MAFLD and the risk of CVD. Statements were developed on different aspects of CVD risk, ranging from epidemiology to mechanisms, screening, and management.

METHODS AND RESULTS: Using a Delphi-based approach, a multidisciplinary panel of 50 international experts from 26 countries reached a consensus on some of the open research questions regarding the link between MAFLD and CKD.

METHODS: This was an individual participant data meta-analysis of the prognostic performance of histologically assessed fibrosis stage (F0-4), liver stiffness measured by vibration-controlled transient elastography (LSM-VCTE), fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) in patients with NAFLD. The literature was searched for a previously published systematic review on the diagnostic accuracy of imaging and simple non-invasive tests and updated to Jan 12, 2022 for this study. Studies were identified through PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL, and authors were contacted for individual participant data, including outcome data, with a minimum of 12 months of follow-up. The primary outcome was a composite endpoint of all-cause mortality, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, or cirrhosis complications (ie, ascites, variceal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, or progression to a MELD score ≥15). We calculated aggregated survival curves for trichotomised groups and compared them using stratified log-rank tests (histology: F0-2 vs F3 vs F4; LSM: <10 vs 10 to <20 vs ≥20 kPa; FIB-4: <1·3 vs 1·3 to ≤2·67 vs >2·67; NFS: 0·676), calculated areas under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (tAUC), and performed Cox proportional-hazards regression to adjust for confounding. This study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42022312226.

FINDINGS: Of 65 eligible studies, we included data on 2518 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD from 25 studies (1126 [44·7%] were female, median age was 54 years [IQR 44-63), and 1161 [46·1%] had type 2 diabetes). After a median follow-up of 57 months [IQR 33-91], the composite endpoint was observed in 145 (5·8%) patients. Stratified log-rank tests showed significant differences between the trichotomised patient groups (p<0·0001 for all comparisons). The tAUC at 5 years were 0·72 (95% CI 0·62-0·81) for histology, 0·76 (0·70-0·83) for LSM-VCTE, 0·74 (0·64-0·82) for FIB-4, and 0·70 (0·63-0·80) for NFS. All index tests were significant predictors of the primary outcome after adjustment for confounders in the Cox regression.

INTERPRETATION: Simple non-invasive tests performed as well as histologically assessed fibrosis in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with NAFLD and could be considered as alternatives to liver biopsy in some cases.

METHODS: We analyzed data from 3004 individuals with biopsy-proven metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) across 29 Chinese and 9 international cohorts to validate the acMASH index and develop the acFibroMASH index. Additionally, we utilized the independent external data from a multi-national cohort of 9034 patients with MASLD to examine associations between the acFibroMASH index and the risk of LREs.

RESULTS: In the pooled global cohort, the acMASH index identified MASH with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.802 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.786-0.818). The acFibroMASH index (including the acMASH index plus liver stiffness measurement) accurately identified fibrotic MASH with an AUROC of 0.808 in the derivation cohort and 0.800 in the validation cohort. Notably, the AUROC for the acFibroMASH index was 0.835 (95% CI, 0.786-0.882), superior to that of the FAST score at 0.750 (95% CI, 0.693-0.800; P < .01) in predicting the 5-year risk of LREs. Patients with acFibroMASH >0.39 had a higher risk of LREs than those with acFibroMASH <0.15 (adjusted hazard ratio, 11.23; 95% CI, 3.98-31.66).