METHODS: A total of 1402 ACLF patients, enrolled in the APASL-ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) with 90-day follow-up, were analyzed. An ACLF score was developed in a derivation cohort (n = 480) and was validated (n = 922).
RESULTS: The overall survival of ACLF patients at 28 days was 51.7%, with a median of 26.3 days. Five baseline variables, total bilirubin, creatinine, serum lactate, INR and hepatic encephalopathy, were found to be independent predictors of mortality, with AUROC in derivation and validation cohorts being 0.80 and 0.78, respectively. AARC-ACLF score (range 5-15) was found to be superior to MELD and CLIF SOFA scores in predicting mortality with an AUROC of 0.80. The point scores were categorized into grades of liver failure (Gr I: 5-7; II: 8-10; and III: 11-15 points) with 28-day cumulative mortalities of 12.7, 44.5 and 85.9%, respectively. The mortality risk could be dynamically calculated as, with each unit increase in AARC-ACLF score above 10, the risk increased by 20%. A score of ≥11 at baseline or persisting in the first week was often seen among nonsurvivors (p = 0.001).
CONCLUSIONS: The AARC-ACLF score is easy to use, dynamic and reliable, and superior to the existing prediction models. It can reliably predict the need for interventions, such as liver transplant, within the first week.
AIM: To study factors associated with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and advanced fibrosis, and medical treatment of biopsy-proven nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) patients.
METHODS: Retrospective study of biopsy-proven NAFLD patients from centres in the GO ASIA Workgroup. Independent factors associated with NASH and with advanced fibrosis on binary logistic regression analyses in a training cohort were used for the development of their corresponding risk score, which were validated in a validation cohort.
RESULTS: We included 1008 patients from nine centres across eight countries (NASH 62.9%, advanced fibrosis 17.2%). Independent predictors of NASH were body mass index ≥30 kg/m2 , diabetes mellitus, dyslipidaemia, alanine aminotransferase ≥88 U/L and aspartate aminotransferase ≥38 U/L, constituting the Asia Pacific NASH risk score. A high score has a positive predictive value of 80%-83% for NASH. Independent predictors of advanced fibrosis were age ≥55 years, diabetes mellitus and platelet count <150 × 109 /L, constituting the Asia-Pacific NAFLD advanced fibrosis risk score. A low score has a negative predictive value of 95%-96% for advanced fibrosis. Only 1.7% of patients were referred for structured lifestyle program, 4.2% were on vitamin E, and 2.4% were on pioglitazone.
CONCLUSIONS: More severe liver disease can be suspected or ruled out based on factors identified in this study. Utilisation of structured lifestyle program, vitamin E and pioglitazone was limited despite this being a cohort of biopsy-proven NAFLD patients with majority of patients having NASH.
METHODS: We identified drugs as precipitants of ACLF among prospective cohort of patients with ACLF from the Asian Pacific Association of Study of Liver (APASL) ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) database. Drugs were considered precipitants after exclusion of known causes together with a temporal association between exposure and decompensation. Outcome was defined as death from decompensation.
RESULTS: Of the 3,132 patients with ACLF, drugs were implicated as a cause in 329 (10.5%, mean age 47 years, 65% men) and other nondrug causes in 2,803 (89.5%) (group B). Complementary and alternative medications (71.7%) were the commonest insult, followed by combination antituberculosis therapy drugs (27.3%). Alcoholic liver disease (28.6%), cryptogenic liver disease (25.5%), and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) (16.7%) were common causes of underlying liver diseases. Patients with drug-induced ACLF had jaundice (100%), ascites (88%), encephalopathy (46.5%), high Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) (30.2), and Child-Turcotte-Pugh score (12.1). The overall 90-day mortality was higher in drug-induced (46.5%) than in non-drug-induced ACLF (38.8%) (P = 0.007). The Cox regression model identified arterial lactate (P < 0.001) and total bilirubin (P = 0.008) as predictors of mortality.
DISCUSSION: Drugs are important identifiable causes of ACLF in Asia-Pacific countries, predominantly from complementary and alternative medications, followed by antituberculosis drugs. Encephalopathy, bilirubin, blood urea, lactate, and international normalized ratio (INR) predict mortality in drug-induced ACLF.
METHODS: We abstracted the data of 1008 patients with NAFLD from nine centers across eight countries. Characteristics of elderly and non-elderly patients with NAFLD were compared using 1:3 sex-matched analysis.
RESULTS: Of the 1008 patients, 175 were elderly [age 64 (62-67) years], who were matched with 525 non-elderly patients [46 (36-54) years]. Elderly patients were more likely to have advanced fibrosis (35.4% vs. 13.3%; p