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A Filippov model describing the effects of media coverage and quarantine on the spread of human influenza

Chen C, Chong NS, Smith R

Math Biosci, 2018 02;296:98-112.
PMID: 29273381 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2017.12.002

Mass-media reports on an epidemic or pandemic have the potential to modify human behaviour and affect social attitudes. Here we construct a Filippov model to evaluate the effects of media coverage and quarantine on the transmission dynamics of influenza. We first choose a piecewise smooth incidence rate to represent media reports being triggered once the number of infected individuals exceeds a certain critical level [Formula: see text] . Further, if the number of infected cases increases and exceeds another larger threshold value [Formula: see text] ( [Formula: see text] ), we consider that the incidence rate tends to a saturation level due to the protection measures taken by individuals; meanwhile, we begin to quarantine susceptible individuals when the number of susceptible individuals is larger than a threshold value Sc. Then, for each susceptible threshold value Sc, the global properties of the Filippov model with regard to the existence and stability of all possible equilibria and sliding-mode dynamics are examined, as we vary the infected threshold values [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] . We show generically that the Filippov system stabilizes at either the endemic equilibrium of the subsystem or the pseudoequilibrium on the switching surface or the endemic equilibrium [Formula: see text] depending on the choice of the threshold values. The findings suggest that proper combinations of infected and susceptible threshold values can maintain the number of infected individuals either below a certain threshold level or at a previously given level.

Matched MeSH terms: Influenza, Human/transmission*
Introduction: Avian influenza: from basic biology to pandemic planning

Loh LC, Hui DS, Beasley R

Respirology, 2008 Mar;13 Suppl 1:S1.
PMID: 18366520 DOI: 10.1111/j.1440-1843.2008.01245.x
Matched MeSH terms: Influenza, Human/transmission
Representations of swine flu: perspectives from a Malaysian pig farm

Goodwin R, Haque S, Hassan SB, Dhanoa A

Public Underst Sci, 2011 Jul;20(4):477-90.
PMID: 21936262

Novel influenza viruses are seen, internationally, as posing considerable health challenges, but public responses to such viruses are often rooted in cultural representations of disease and risk. However, little research has been conducted in locations associated with the origin of a pandemic. We examined representations and risk perceptions associated with swine flu amongst 120 Malaysian pig farmers. Thirty-seven per cent of respondents felt at particular risk of infection, two-thirds were somewhat or very concerned about being infected. Those respondents who were the most anxious believed particular societal "out-groups" (homosexuals, the homeless and prostitutes) to be at higher infection risk. Although few (4%) reported direct discrimination, 46% claimed friends had avoided them since the swine flu outbreak. Findings are discussed in the context of evolutionary, social representations and terror management theories of response to pandemic threat.

Matched MeSH terms: Influenza, Human/transmission
Preventive behaviours towards influenza A(H1N1) and factors associated with the intention to take influenza A(H1N1) vaccination

Naing C, Tan RY, Soon WC, Parakh J, Sanggi SS

J Infect Public Health, 2012 Dec;5(6):412-9.
PMID: 23287612 DOI: 10.1016/j.jiph.2012.07.005

PURPOSE: (i) To determine knowledge of, and self-protecting preventive behaviours towards influenza A(H1N1) and (ii) to identify the factors influencing intention to take influenza A(H1N1) vaccination among the study population.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is a cross-sectional survey carried out in Mantin Town, a semi-urban area of Malaysia. A structured questionnaire consisted of sociodemographic characteristics, knowledge of pandemic influenza symptoms, mode of transmission, self-protecting preventive behaviours, and intention to receive the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine was used for face-to-face interviews with the household members.
RESULTS: Of 230 who heard about pandemic influenza A(H1N1), 86% had misconception about mode of transmission of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, and 52% had sufficient self-protecting behaviours. A majority (58.3%; 134/230) had intended to receive the vaccine. In the multivariate analysis, the intention to get vaccinated was significantly higher among 'those who trusted in efficacy of vaccine for prevention of influenza A(H1N1)' (p<0.001), 'those who were equipped with higher education level' (p=0.015) and 'those who worry about themselves contracting illness' (p=0.008).
CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight the need to scale up the community's knowledge regarding influenza A(H1N1). Recognizing the factors affecting the acceptance of vaccination documented in this study will allow decision makers to devise effective and efficient vaccination strategies.

Matched MeSH terms: Influenza, Human/transmission
Fulltext A returning migrant worker with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus infection in Guizhou, China: a case report

Wang D, Tang G, Huang Y, Yu C, Li S, Zhuang L, et al.

J Med Case Rep, 2015;9:109.
PMID: 25962780 DOI: 10.1186/s13256-015-0580-1

Human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus was first reported on March, 2013 in the Yangtze River Delta region of China. The majority of human cases were detected in mainland China; other regions out of mainland China reported imported human cases, including Hong Kong SAR, Taiwan (the Republic of China) and Malaysia, due to human transportation. Here, we report the first human case of H7N9 infection imported into Guizhou Province during the Spring Festival travel season in January 2014.

Matched MeSH terms: Influenza, Human/transmission
Fulltext The association between pre-morbid conditions and respiratory tract manifestations amongst Malaysian Hajj pilgrims

Deris ZZ, Hasan H, Ab Wahab MS, Sulaiman SA, Naing NN, Othman NH

Trop Biomed, 2010 Aug;27(2):294-300.
PMID: 20962728 MyJurnal

In a very closed and overcrowding environment, influenza transmission during Hajj season is almost inevitable. The aim of this study was to determine the association between pre-morbid conditions and influenza-like illness (ILI) amongst Hajj pilgrims. A cross-sectional study was conducted amongst Malaysian Hajj pilgrims in year 2007. Survey forms were distributed at Madinatul-Hujjaj, Jeddah and Tabung Haji Clinic, Medina, Saudi Arabia where pilgrims stay on transit before returning to Malaysia. Allergic rhinitis was significantly associated with sore throat (p=0.047), longer duration of cough (p=0.017) and runny nose (p=0.016). Pilgrims who suffered from chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD) had significant association with longer duration of cough (p=0.041) and those with diabetes mellitus had significant association with longer duration of sore throat (p=0.048). Underlying asthma was significantly associated with severe influenza like illness requiring admission to hospital for further treatment of respiratory symptoms (p=0.016). Based on these findings, we suggest those with underlying asthma should be discouraged from participating in the hajj and they should seek early treatment if they develop respiratory symptoms.

Matched MeSH terms: Influenza, Human/transmission
Fulltext Investigation of a potential zoonotic transmission of orthoreovirus associated with acute influenza-like illness in an adult patient

Chua KB, Voon K, Yu M, Keniscope C, Abdul Rasid K, Wang LF

PLoS One, 2011;6(10):e25434.
PMID: 22022394 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0025434

Bats are increasingly being recognized as important reservoir hosts for a large number of viruses, some of them can be highly virulent when they infect human and livestock animals. Among the new bat zoonotic viruses discovered in recent years, several reoviruses (respiratory enteric orphan viruses) were found to be able to cause acute respiratory infections in humans, which included Melaka and Kampar viruses discovered in Malaysia, all of them belong to the genus Orthoreovirus, family Reoviridae. In this report, we describe the isolation of a highly related virus from an adult patient who suffered acute respiratory illness in Malaysia. Although there was no direct evidence of bat origin, epidemiological study indicated the potential exposure of the patient to bats before the onset of disease. The current study further demonstrates that spillover events of different strains of related orthoreoviruses from bats to humans are occurring on a regular basis, which calls for more intensive and systematic surveillances to fully assess the true public health impact of these newly discovered bat-borne zoonotic reoviruses.

Matched MeSH terms: Influenza, Human/transmission*
Fulltext The prevalence of acute respiratory symptoms and role of protective measures among Malaysian hajj pilgrims

Deris ZZ, Hasan H, Sulaiman SA, Wahab MS, Naing NN, Othman NH

J Travel Med, 2010 Mar-Apr;17(2):82-8.
PMID: 20412173 DOI: 10.1111/j.1708-8305.2009.00384.x

BACKGROUND: Respiratory symptoms including cough, runny nose, sore throat, and fever are the most common clinical manifestations faced by hajj pilgrims in Mecca. The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence of respiratory symptoms among Malaysian hajj pilgrims and the effect of a few protective measures taken by hajj pilgrims to reduce respiratory symptoms.
METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted by distributing survey forms to Malaysian hajj pilgrims at transit center before flying back to Malaysia. The recruitment of respondents to the survey was on a voluntary basis.
RESULTS: A total of 387 survey forms were available for analysis. The mean age was 50.4 +/- 11.0 years. The common respiratory symptoms among Malaysian hajj pilgrims were: cough 91.5%, runny nose 79.3%, fever 59.2%, and sore throat 57.1%. The prevalence of hajj pilgrims with triad of cough, subjective fever, and sore throat were 40.1%. The symptoms lasted less than 2 weeks in the majority of cases. Only 3.6% did not suffer from any of these symptoms. Seventy-two percent of hajj pilgrims received influenza vaccination before departure and 72.9% wore facemasks. Influenza vaccination was not associated with any of respiratory symptoms but it was significantly associated with longer duration of sore throat. Wearing masks was significantly associated with sore throat and longer duration of sore throat and fever.
CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of respiratory symptoms was high among Malaysian hajj pilgrims and the current protective measures seemed inadequate to reduce it. Beside standardization of the term used in hajj studies, more collaborative effort should be taken to reduce respiratory symptoms. The hajj authority should prepare for the challenge of pandemic influenza by providing more healthcare facilities and implementation of more strict measures to reduce the transmission of pandemic influenza strain among hajj pilgrims.

Matched MeSH terms: Influenza, Human/transmission
Fulltext Using routine surveillance data to estimate the epidemic potential of emerging zoonoses: application to the emergence of US swine origin influenza A H3N2v virus

Cauchemez S, Epperson S, Biggerstaff M, Swerdlow D, Finelli L, Ferguson NM

PLoS Med, 2013;10(3):e1001399.
PMID: 23472057 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001399

BACKGROUND: Prior to emergence in human populations, zoonoses such as SARS cause occasional infections in human populations exposed to reservoir species. The risk of widespread epidemics in humans can be assessed by monitoring the reproduction number R (average number of persons infected by a human case). However, until now, estimating R required detailed outbreak investigations of human clusters, for which resources and expertise are not always available. Additionally, existing methods do not correct for important selection and under-ascertainment biases. Here, we present simple estimation methods that overcome many of these limitations.
METHODS AND FINDINGS: Our approach is based on a parsimonious mathematical model of disease transmission and only requires data collected through routine surveillance and standard case investigations. We apply it to assess the transmissibility of swine-origin influenza A H3N2v-M virus in the US, Nipah virus in Malaysia and Bangladesh, and also present a non-zoonotic example (cholera in the Dominican Republic). Estimation is based on two simple summary statistics, the proportion infected by the natural reservoir among detected cases (G) and among the subset of the first detected cases in each cluster (F). If detection of a case does not affect detection of other cases from the same cluster, we find that R can be estimated by 1-G; otherwise R can be estimated by 1-F when the case detection rate is low. In more general cases, bounds on R can still be derived.
CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a simple approach with limited data requirements that enables robust assessment of the risks posed by emerging zoonoses. We illustrate this by deriving transmissibility estimates for the H3N2v-M virus, an important step in evaluating the possible pandemic threat posed by this virus. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Matched MeSH terms: Influenza, Human/transmission
INFLUENZA VACCINATION UPTAKE AMONG HEALTHCARE WORKERS AT A MALAYSIAN TEACHING HOSPITAL

Rashid ZZ, Jasme H, Liang HJ, Yusof MM, Sharani ZZ, Mohamad M, et al.

Southeast Asian J. Trop. Med. Public Health, 2015 Mar;46(2):215-25.
PMID: 26513924

Annual influenza vaccination is the most important preventive strategy against influenza illness in healthcare workers (HCWs), who could acquire influenza from and transmit influenza to patients and other HCWs. Despite the well established benefits and strong recommendations for influenza vaccination for all HCWs, influenza vaccination uptake at the Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia Medical Centre (UKMMC) for the past 3 years has been low and is decreasing. We aimed to determine the factors associated with influenza vaccination uptake among HCWs at UKMMC. We conducted a cross sectional study via questionnaire among 211 randomly selected HCWs, consisting of 106 HCWs who were vaccinated in 2011 and 105 HCWs who were not vaccinated in 2010 or 2011. We had a 100% response rate. Influenza vaccination uptake was significantly associated with age and previous vaccination history, with older HCWs being more likely to be vaccinated (adjusted OR = 12.494; 95% CI:6.278-24.863; p < 0.001) and HCWs with previous vaccination history being more likely to be vaccinated (adjusted OR = 1.038; 95% CI:1.001-1.077; p = 0.045). Influenza vaccination uptake was not associated with gender (p = 0.926) or job category (p = 0.220). Publicity at the workplace was the main source of information about the vaccine (51.2% of respondents), followed by colleagues (29.9%). Despite the low uptake, 85.3% of respondents believed influenza vaccination was important for disease prevention. The most common reason given for vaccination was protection against influenza infection (73.6%). The most common reason for not having the vaccine was time constraints (56.2%). An evidenced-based strategy needs to be developed to improve vaccine uptake or having mandatory vaccination.

Matched MeSH terms: Influenza, Human/transmission