METHODS: This study employs a rigorous gap analysis to measure the size of the illicit cigarette trade in Malaysia and compare it with the industry estimates.
FINDINGS: We found that in 2019, the illicit cigarette market share ranged from 38.2% to 52.5%, depending on assumptions with respect to consumption under-reporting, which is substantially less than the industry estimates. We found that the size of the illicit cigarette market was not driven by higher excise tax: doubling the excise tax rate from RM0.20 to RM0.40 per stick in November 2015 resulted in only a slight increase in the illicit cigarette market share and no increase in the number of illicit cigarettes in the market.
CONCLUSIONS: Therefore, a reduction in cigarette excise taxes, as suggested by the industry, will not solve the problem of illicit cigarette trade in Malaysia. Instead, the government should ratify the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control's Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products and implement the strategies outlined in the protocol.
METHODS: This paper use tobacco data and Macroeconomics Indicators from Euromonitor International and World Bank Data. We extend linear regression models by controlling both the serial correlation and endogeneity bias problems. We also observe the properties in the ARMA(2,2) data generating process.
RESULTS: We document that tobacco tends to affect the USA's future economy but not Indonesia. In our robustness check, we conduct a SUR analysis to control the contemporaneous correlations among Asian markets. We further document that tobacco variables tend not to affect the economy in the Asian markets.
CONCLUSION: Our results show that the contribution of tobacco commodity to the economy is overstated. Therefore, the comprehensive and massive tobacco control implementations should be undertaken hence is relevant to put into actions.
OBJECTIVE: Our study analyzed the trend of tobacco import in five countries: Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique. Also, we analyze the tobacco control policies implemented in these countries and determine some lessons learn for Indonesia.
METHODS: We conducted quantitative analyses on tobacco production, consumption, export, and import during 1990-2016 in the five countries. Data were analyzed using simple ordinary least square regressions, correcting for time series autocorrelation. We also conducted a desk review on the tobacco control policies implemented in the five countries.
RESULTS: While local production decreased by almost 20% during 1990-2016, the proportion of tobacco imports out of domestic production quadrupled from 17 to 65%. Similarly, the ratio of tobacco imports to exports reversed from 0.7 (i.e., exports were higher) to 2.9 (i.e., import were 2.9 times higher than export) in 1990 and 2016, respectively. This condition is quite different from the other four respective countries in the observation where their tobacco export is higher than the import. From the tobacco control point of view, the four other countries have ratified the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC).
CONCLUSION: The situation is unlikely for Indonesia to either reduce tobacco consumption or improve the local tobacco farmer's welfare, considering that the number of imports continued to increase. Emulating from the four countries, Indonesia must ratify the FCTC and implement stricter tobacco control policies to decrease tobacco consumption and import.
RESULTS: The result of this study shows that FCTC ratification has a negative impact on a country's smoking prevalence. While FCTC ratification positively correlates with reduced smoking prevalence, a decline in smoking prevalence is not related to a decline in GDP per capita.
CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study shows that FCTC ratification, which can be an important driver for more effective tobacco control, does not necessarily have a negative impact on the economy. Instead, FCTC ratification may be beneficial for both health and economic outcomes, as it provides comprehensive guidance for reducing smoking prevalence that take into account social and economic factors.
DESIGN: Primary and secondary documentary sources in both English and Malay were analysed to illuminate key events and decisions, and the discourse of industry and government. Sources included: speeches by Malaysian political and industry actors; tobacco industry reports, press releases and websites; government documents; World Health Organization (WHO) tobacco control literature; and press reports.
RESULTS: Malays have the highest smoking prevalence among Malaysia's major ethnic groups. The tobacco industry has consistently been promoted as furthering Malay economic development. Malays play the major role in growing and curing. Government-owned Malay development trusts have been prominent investors in tobacco corporations, which have cultivated linkages with the Malay elite. The religious element of Malay ethnicity has also been significant. All Malays are Muslim, and the National Fatwa Council has declared smoking to be haram (forbidden); however, the Government has declined to implement this ruling.
CONCLUSION: Exaggerated claims for the socio-economic benefits of tobacco production, government investment and close links between tobacco corporations and sections of the Malay elite have created a conflict of interest in public policy, limited the focus on tobacco as a health policy issue among Malays and retarded tobacco control policy. More recently, ratification of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, regional free trade policies reducing the numbers of growers, concerns about smoking from an Islamic viewpoint, and anxieties about the effects of smoking upon youth have increasingly challenged the dominant discourse that tobacco furthers Malay interests. Nevertheless, the industry remains a formidable political and economic presence in Malaysia that is likely to continue to proclaim that its activities coincide with Malay socio-economic interests.