DESIGN: We measured serum IGF-I and IGFBP-3 levels in a group of Malaysian aborigine children from three jungle settlements; Sinderut and Pos Lanai are known for iodine deficiency and endemic goitre, and Gombak is an iodine replete area with better socioeconomic status.
PATIENTS: A total of 246 children were studied, 188 in the age group 4-10 years and 88 in the age group 11-15 years.
MEASUREMENTS: All children were assessed anthropometrically and height standard deviation score (SDS) were calculated using the CDC Anthropometric Software package. Malnutrition was confirmed clinically and according to the WHO definition of malnutrition. IGF-I and IGFBP-3 were determined by radioimmunoassay, and T4 and TSH by immunoradiometric assay.
RESULTS: Based on the height SDS, Sinderut and Pos Lanai children were significantly more malnourished and stunted than the Gombak children P = 0.0001). T4 levels were significantly lower (P = 0.0001) amongst the 4-10-years old Sinderut (81 +/- 2 nmol/l) than in Pos Lanai (101 +/- 3 nmol/l) or Gombak (123 +/- 3 nmol/l) children. Similar findings were also seen in the older children; mean T4 levels of those from Sinderut and Pos Lanai (83 +/- 3 and 88 +/- 4 nmol/l respectively), were low (P = 0.0001) compared to Gombak (118 +/- 3 nmol/l). Conversely, TSH levels in both age groups of Sinderut children were significantly elevated (P = 0.0001) (3.5 +/- 0.2 and 3.9 +/- 0.3 mU/l respectively) compared to age-matched groups from Pos Lanal (2.1 +/- 0.1 and 2.2 +/- 0.2 mU/l respectively) and Gombak (1.5 +/- 0.1 and 1.5 +/- 0.2 mU/l respectively). IGF-I and IGFBP-3 correlated significantly with the height SDS of the children, In both the 4-10 (r = 0.400, P = 0.0001 and r = 0.365, P = 0.0001 respectively) and 11-15 years age groups (r = 0.324, P = 0.002 and r = 0.533, P = 0.0001 respectively). Correlation between IGFBP-3 and T4 levels was more significant in the younger children (r = 0.412, P = 0.0001). Association between IGF-I and T4 levels was significant only in the 4-10 years age group (r = 0.237, P = 0.001).
CONCLUSIONS: Varying duration and degree of exposure to malnutrition and iodine deficiency resulted in different mean levels of T4, TSH, IGF-I and IGFBP-3 in the three areas. The strong positive associations between IGF-I and IGFBP-3 levels and height SDS suggest that these biochemical measurements are indeed useful indicators of growth and nutritional status in children. The significant correlations between T4 and IGFBP-3 and IGF-1 suggests the importance of thyroid hormones in regulating the synthesis of these growth factors. The age-related increase of these growth factors even amongst malnourished, iodine deficient children implies that age-matched reference ranges are essential for proper evaluation of laboratory results.
METHODS: Patients were followed from 5 years after ART until the earlier of their 25th birthday, last visit, death, or LTFU. We used Cox regression to assess predictors of mortality and competing risk regression to assess factors associated with LTFU.
RESULTS: In total, 4488 children and adolescents initiating ART between 1997 and 2016 were included in the analysis, with a median follow-up time of 5.2 years. Of these, 107 (2.2%) died and 271 (6.0%) were LTFU. Mortality rate was 4.35 and LTFU rate 11.01 per 1000 person-years. Increased mortality was associated with AIDS diagnosis (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.71; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.24-2.37), current CD4 count <350 cells/mm3 compared with ≥500 (highest aHR 13.85; 95% CI 6.91-27.76 for CD4 <200), viral load ≥10 000 copies/mL compared with <400 (aHR 3.28; 95% CI 1.90-5.63), and exposure to more than one ART regimen (aHR 1.51; 95% CI 1.14-2.00). Factors associated with LTFU were male sex (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio [asHR] 1.29; 95% CI 1.04-1.59), current viral load >1000 copies/mL compared with <400 (highest asHR 2.36; 95% CI 1.19-4.70 for viral load 1000-9999), and ART start after year 2005 compared with ≤2005 (highest asHR 5.96; 95% CI 1.98-17.91 for 2010-2016).
CONCLUSION: For children and adolescents surviving 5 years on ART, both current CD4 and viral load remained strong indicators that help to keep track of their treatment outcomes. More effort should be made to monitor patients who switch treatments.
METHODS: We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 analytical framework to compute age-sex-specific HIV mortality, incidence, and prevalence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021). We aimed to analyse all available data sources, including data on the provision of HIV programmes reported to UNAIDS, published literature on mortality among people on antiretroviral therapy (ART) identified by a systematic review, household surveys, sentinel surveillance antenatal care clinic data, vital registration data, and country-level case report data. We calibrated a mechanistic simulation of HIV infection and natural history to available data to estimate HIV burden from 1990 to 2021 and generated forecasts to 2050 through projection of all simulation inputs into the future. Historical outcomes (1990-2021) were simulated at the 1000-draw level to support propagation of uncertainty and reporting of uncertainty intervals (UIs). Our approach to forecasting utilised the transmission rate as the basis for projection, along with new rate-of-change projections of ART coverage. Additionally, we introduced two new metrics to our reporting: prevalence of unsuppressed viraemia (PUV), which represents the proportion of the population without a suppressed level of HIV (viral load <1000 copies per mL), and period lifetime probability of HIV acquisition, which quantifies the hypothetical probability of acquiring HIV for a synthetic cohort, a simulated population that is aged from birth to death through the set of age-specific incidence rates of a given time period.
FINDINGS: Global new HIV infections decreased by 21·9% (95% UI 13·1-28·8) between 2010 and 2021, from 2·11 million (2·02-2·25) in 2010 to 1·65 million (1·48-1·82) in 2021. HIV-related deaths decreased by 39·7% (33·7-44·5), from 1·19 million (1·07-1·37) in 2010 to 718 000 (669 000-785 000) in 2021. The largest declines in both HIV incidence and mortality were in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. However, super-regions including central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and north Africa and the Middle East experienced increasing HIV incidence and mortality rates. The number of people living with HIV reached 40·0 million (38·0-42·4) in 2021, an increase from 29·5 million (28·1-31·0) in 2010. The lifetime probability of HIV acquisition remains highest in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region, where it declined from its 1995 peak of 21·8% (20·1-24·2) to 8·7% (7·5-10·7) in 2021. Four of the seven GBD super-regions had a lifetime probability of less than 1% in 2021. In 2021, sub-Saharan Africa had the highest PUV of 999·9 (857·4-1154·2) per 100 000 population, but this was a 64·5% (58·8-69·4) reduction in PUV from 2003 to 2021. In the same period, PUV increased in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia by 116·1% (8·0-218·2). Our forecasts predict a continued global decline in HIV incidence and mortality, with the number of people living with HIV peaking at 44·4 million (40·7-49·8) by 2039, followed by a gradual decrease. In 2025, we projected 1·43 million (1·29-1·59) new HIV infections and 615 000 (567 000-680 000) HIV-related deaths, suggesting that the interim 2025 targets for reducing these figures are unlikely to be achieved. Furthermore, our forecasted results indicate that few countries will meet the 2030 target for reducing HIV incidence and HIV-related deaths by 90% from 2010 levels.
INTERPRETATION: Our forecasts indicate that continuation of current levels of HIV control are not likely to attain ambitious incidence and mortality reduction targets by 2030, and more than 40 million people globally will continue to require lifelong ART for decades into the future. The global community will need to show sustained and substantive efforts to make the progress needed to reach and sustain the end of AIDS as a public threat.
FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
METHODS: Retrospective data were collected on 1148 children with biopsy-proven IgAVN between 2005 and 2019 from 41 international paediatric nephrology centres across 25 countries and analysed using multivariate analysis. The primary outcome was estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and persistent proteinuria at last follow-up.
RESULTS: The median follow-up was 3.7 years (interquartile range 2-6.2). At last follow-up, 29% of patients had an eGFR <90 mL/min/1.73 m2, 36% had proteinuria and 3% had chronic kidney disease stage 4-5. Older age, lower eGFR at onset, hypertension and histological features of tubular atrophy and segmental sclerosis were predictors of poor outcome. There was no evidence to support any specific second-line immunosuppressive regimen being superior to others, even when further analysing subgroups of children with reduced kidney function, nephrotic syndrome or hypoalbuminemia at onset. Delayed start of immunosuppressive treatment was associated with a lower eGFR at last follow-up.
CONCLUSION: In this large retrospective cohort, key features associated with disease outcome are highlighted. Importantly, there was no evidence to support that any specific immunosuppressive treatments were superior to others. Further discovery science and well-conducted clinical trials are needed to define accurate treatment and improve outcomes of IgAVN.