METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using in silico tools, we designed and expressed four novel P. knowlesi protein products to address the distinct lack of suitable serosurveillance tools: PkSERA3 antigens 1 and 2, PkSSP2/TRAP and PkTSERA2 antigen 1. Antibody prevalence to these antigens was determined by ELISA for three time-points post-treatment from a hospital-based clinical treatment trial in Sabah, East Malaysia (n = 97 individuals; 241 total samples for all time points). Higher responses were observed for the PkSERA3 antigen 2 (67%, 65/97) across all time-points (day 0: 36.9% 34/92; day 7: 63.8% 46/72; day 28: 58.4% 45/77) with significant differences between the clinical cases and controls (n = 55, mean plus 3 SD) (day 0 p<0.0001; day 7 p<0.0001; day 28 p<0.0001). Using boosted regression trees, we developed models to classify P. knowlesi exposure (cross-validated AUC 88.9%; IQR 86.1-91.3%) and identified the most predictive antibody responses.

METHODS: A multi-host, multi-site transmission model was developed, taking into account the three areas (forest, farm, and village) where transmission is thought to occur. Latin hypercube sampling of model parameters was used to identify parameter sets consistent with possible prevalence in macaques and humans inferred from observed data. We then explore the consequences of increasing human-macaque contact in the farm, the likely impact of rapid treatment, and the use of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) in preventing wider spread of this emerging infection.

RESULTS: Identified model parameters were consistent with transmission being sustained by the macaques with spill over infections into the human population and with high overall basic reproduction numbers (up to 2267). The extent to which macaques forage in the farms had a non-linear relationship with human infection prevalence, the highest prevalence occurring when macaques forage in the farms but return frequently to the forest where they experience higher contact with vectors and hence sustain transmission. Only one of 1,046 parameter sets was consistent with sustained human-to-human transmission in the absence of macaques, although with a low human reproduction number (R(0H) = 1.04). Simulations showed LLINs and rapid treatment provide personal protection to humans with maximal estimated reductions in human prevalence of 42% and 95%, respectively.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: After reviewing the published literature we identified potential host and vector species and ranked these based on how informative they are for the presence of an infectious parasite reservoir, based on current evidence. We collated spatial data on parasite occurrence and the ranges of the identified host and vector species. The ranked spatial data allowed us to assign an evidence score to 475 subnational areas in 19 countries and we present the results on a map of the Southeast and South Asia region.