METHODS: Patient data from 2003-2017 were obtained from the Therapeutics, Research, Education and AIDS Training in Asia (TREAT Asia) HIV Observational Database (TAHOD). We included patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) with > 1 day of follow-up. Cumulative incidences were plotted for CVD-related, AIDS-related, non-AIDS-related, and unknown CODs, and any CVD (i.e. fatal and nonfatal). Competing risk regression was used to assess risk factors of any CVD.
RESULTS: Of 8069 patients with a median follow-up of 7.3 years [interquartile range (IQR) 4.4-10.7 years], 378 patients died [incidence rate (IR) 6.2 per 1000 person-years (PY)], and this total included 22 CVD-related deaths (IR 0.36 per 1000 PY). Factors significantly associated with any CVD event (IR 2.2 per 1000 PY) were older age [sub-hazard ratio (sHR) 2.21; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.36-3.58 for age 41-50 years; sHR 5.52; 95% CI 3.43-8.91 for ≥ 51 years, compared with < 40 years], high blood pressure (sHR 1.62; 95% CI 1.04-2.52), high total cholesterol (sHR 1.89; 95% CI 1.27-2.82), high triglycerides (sHR 1.55; 95% CI 1.02-2.37) and high body mass index (BMI) (sHR 1.66; 95% CI 1.12-2.46). CVD crude IRs were lower in the later ART initiation period and in lower middle- and upper middle-income countries.
CONCLUSIONS: The development of fatal and nonfatal CVD events in our cohort was associated with older age, and treatable risk factors such as high blood pressure, triglycerides, total cholesterol and BMI. Lower CVD event rates in middle-income countries may indicate under-diagnosis of CVD in Asian-Pacific resource-limited settings.
METHODS: Analyses were based on patients recruited to the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD), consisting of 21 sites in 12 countries. Patients on triple antiretroviral therapy (ART) were included if they were alive, without previous CVD, and had data on CVD risk factors. Annual new CVD events for 2019-2028 were estimated with the D:A:D equation, accounting for age- and sex-adjusted mortality. Modelled intervention scenarios were treatment of high total cholesterol, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL) or high blood pressure, abacavir or lopinavir substitution, and smoking cessation.
RESULTS: Of 3,703 included patients, 69% were male, median age was 46 (IQR 40-53) years and median time since ART initiation was 9.8 years (IQR 7.5-14.1). Cohort incidence rates of CVD were projected to increase from 730 per 100,000 person-years (pys) in 2019 to 1,432 per 100,000 pys in 2028. In the modelled intervention scenarios, most events can be avoided by smoking cessation, abacavir substitution, lopinavir substitution, decreasing total cholesterol, treating high blood pressure and increasing HDL.
CONCLUSIONS: Our projections suggest a doubling of CVD incidence rates in Asian HIV-positive adults in our cohort. An increase in CVD can be expected in any ageing population, however, according to our models, this can be close to averted by interventions. Thus, there is an urgent need for risk screening and integration of HIV and CVD programmes to reduce the future CVD burden.
METHODS: Incidence of malignancy after cohort enrollment was evaluated. Factors associated with development of hematological and nonhematological malignancy were analyzed using competing risk regression and survival time using Kaplan-Meier.
RESULTS: Of 7455 patients, 107 patients (1%) developed a malignancy: 34 (0.5%) hematological [0.08 per 100 person-years (/100PY)] and 73 (1%) nonhematological (0.17/100PY). Of the hematological malignancies, non-Hodgkin lymphoma was predominant (n = 26, 76%): immunoblastic (n = 6, 18%), Burkitt (n = 5, 15%), diffuse large B-cell (n = 5, 15%), and unspecified (n = 10, 30%). Others include central nervous system lymphoma (n = 7, 21%) and myelodysplastic syndrome (n = 1, 3%). Nonhematological malignancies were mostly Kaposi sarcoma (n = 12, 16%) and cervical cancer (n = 10, 14%). Risk factors for hematological malignancy included age >50 vs. ≤30 years [subhazard ratio (SHR) = 6.48, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.79 to 23.43] and being from a high-income vs. a lower-middle-income country (SHR = 3.97, 95% CI: 1.45 to 10.84). Risk was reduced with CD4 351-500 cells/µL (SHR = 0.20, 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.74) and CD4 >500 cells/µL (SHR = 0.14, 95% CI: 0.04 to 0.78), compared to CD4 ≤200 cells/µL. Similar risk factors were seen for nonhematological malignancy, with prior AIDS diagnosis showing a weak association. Patients diagnosed with a hematological malignancy had shorter survival time compared to patients diagnosed with a nonhematological malignancy.
CONCLUSIONS: Nonhematological malignancies were common but non-Hodgkin lymphoma was more predominant in our cohort. PLHIV from high-income countries were more likely to be diagnosed, indicating a potential underdiagnosis of cancer in low-income settings.