METHODS: Retrospective data of 347 patients, consisting of maternal demographics and ultrasound parameters collected between the 20th and 25th gestational weeks, were studied. ML models were applied to different combinations of the parameters to predict SGA and severe SGA at birth (defined as 10th and third centile birth weight).
RESULTS: Using second-trimester measurements, ML models achieved an accuracy of 70% and 73% in predicting SGA and severe SGA whereas clinical guidelines had accuracies of 64% and 48%. Uterine PI (Ut PI) was found to be an important predictor, corroborating with existing literature, but surprisingly, so was nuchal fold thickness (NF). Logistic regression showed that Ut PI and NF were significant predictors and statistical comparisons showed that these parameters were significantly different in disease. Further, including NF was found to improve ML model performance, and vice versa.
CONCLUSION: ML could potentially improve the prediction of SGA at birth from second-trimester measurements, and demonstrated reduced NF to be an important predictor. Early prediction of SGA allows closer clinical monitoring, which provides an opportunity to discover any underlying diseases associated with SGA.
OBJECTIVE: Apply machine learning for the prediction and identification of factors associated with short and long-term mortality in Asian STEMI patients and compare with a conventional risk score.
METHODS: The National Cardiovascular Disease Database for Malaysia registry, of a multi-ethnic, heterogeneous Asian population was used for in-hospital (6299 patients), 30-days (3130 patients), and 1-year (2939 patients) model development. 50 variables were considered. Mortality prediction was analysed using feature selection methods with machine learning algorithms and compared to Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) score. Invasive management of varying degrees was selected as important variables that improved mortality prediction.
RESULTS: Model performance using a complete and reduced variable produced an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) from 0.73 to 0.90. The best machine learning model for in-hospital, 30 days, and 1-year outperformed TIMI risk score (AUC = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.846-0.910; vs AUC = 0.81, 95% CI:0.772-0.845, AUC = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.870-0.935; vs AUC = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.746-0.838, AUC = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.798-0.872; vs AUC = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.715-0.802, p < 0.0001 for all). TIMI score underestimates patients' risk of mortality. 90% of non-survival patients are classified as high risk (>50%) by machine learning algorithm compared to 10-30% non-survival patients by TIMI. Common predictors identified for short- and long-term mortality were age, heart rate, Killip class, fasting blood glucose, prior primary PCI or pharmaco-invasive therapy and diuretics. The final algorithm was converted into an online tool with a database for continuous data archiving for algorithm validation.
CONCLUSIONS: In a multi-ethnic population, patients with STEMI were better classified using the machine learning method compared to TIMI scoring. Machine learning allows for the identification of distinct factors in individual Asian populations for better mortality prediction. Ongoing continuous testing and validation will allow for better risk stratification and potentially alter management and outcomes in the future.