Bluetongue virus (BTV) is the 'type' species of the genus Orbivirus within the family Reoviridae. The BTV genome is composed of ten linear segments of double-stranded RNA (dsRNA), each of which codes for one of ten distinct viral proteins. Previous phylogenetic comparisons have evaluated variations in genome segment 3 (Seg-3) nucleotide sequence as way to identify the geographical origin (different topotypes) of BTV isolates. The full-length nucleotide sequence of genome Seg-3 was determined for thirty BTV isolates recovered in the eastern Mediterranean region, the Balkans and other geographic areas (Spain, India, Malaysia and Africa). These data were compared, based on molecular variability, positive-selection-analysis and maximum-likelihood phylogenetic reconstructions (using appropriate substitution models) to 24 previously published sequences, revealing their evolutionary relationships. These analyses indicate that negative selection is a major force in the evolution of BTV, restricting nucleotide variability, reducing the evolutionary rate of Seg-3 and potentially of other regions of the BTV genome. Phylogenetic analysis of the BTV-4 strains isolated over a relatively long time interval (1979-2000), in a single geographic area (Greece), showed a low level of nucleotide diversity, indicating that the virus can circulate almost unchanged for many years. These analyses also show that the recent incursions into south-eastern Europe were caused by BTV strains belonging to two different major-lineages: representing an 'eastern' (BTV-9, -16 and -1) and a 'western' (BTV-4) group/topotype. Epidemiological and phylogenetic analyses indicate that these viruses originated from a geographic area to the east and southeast of Greece (including Cyprus and the Middle East), which appears to represent an important ecological niche for the virus that is likely to represent a continuing source of future BTV incursions into Europe.
Nipah virus (NiV) is an emerging bat-borne zoonotic virus that causes near-annual outbreaks of fatal encephalitis in South Asia-one of the most populous regions on Earth. In Bangladesh, infection occurs when people drink date-palm sap contaminated with bat excreta. Outbreaks are sporadic, and the influence of viral dynamics in bats on their temporal and spatial distribution is poorly understood. We analyzed data on host ecology, molecular epidemiology, serological dynamics, and viral genetics to characterize spatiotemporal patterns of NiV dynamics in its wildlife reservoir, Pteropus medius bats, in Bangladesh. We found that NiV transmission occurred throughout the country and throughout the year. Model results indicated that local transmission dynamics were modulated by density-dependent transmission, acquired immunity that is lost over time, and recrudescence. Increased transmission followed multiyear periods of declining seroprevalence due to bat-population turnover and individual loss of humoral immunity. Individual bats had smaller host ranges than other Pteropus species (spp.), although movement data and the discovery of a Malaysia-clade NiV strain in eastern Bangladesh suggest connectivity with bats east of Bangladesh. These data suggest that discrete multiannual local epizootics in bat populations contribute to the sporadic nature of NiV outbreaks in South Asia. At the same time, the broad spatial and temporal extent of NiV transmission, including the recent outbreak in Kerala, India, highlights the continued risk of spillover to humans wherever they may interact with pteropid bats and the importance of limiting opportunities for spillover throughout Pteropus's range.
Host-virus associations have co-evolved under ecological and evolutionary selection pressures that shape cross-species transmission and spillover to humans. Observed virus-host associations provide relevant context for newly discovered wildlife viruses to assess knowledge gaps in host-range and estimate pathways for potential human infection. Using models to predict virus-host networks, we predicted the likelihood of humans as hosts for 513 newly discovered viruses detected by large-scale wildlife surveillance at high-risk animal-human interfaces in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Predictions indicated that novel coronaviruses are likely to infect a greater number of host species than viruses from other families. Our models further characterize novel viruses through prioritization scores and directly inform surveillance targets to identify host ranges for newly discovered viruses.