METHODS: The residential addresses of 3054 notified CHIKV cases in 2009-2010 were georeferenced onto a base map of Sarawak with spatial data of rivers and roads using R software. The spatiotemporal spread was determined and clusters were detected using the space-time scan statistic with SaTScan.
RESULTS: Overall CHIKV incidence was 127 per 100 000 population (range, 0-1125 within districts). The average speed of spread was 70.1 km/wk, with a peak of 228 cases/wk and the basic reproduction number (R0) was 3.1. The highest age-specific incidence rate was 228 per 100 000 in adults aged 50-54 y. Significantly more cases (79.4%) lived in rural areas compared with the general population (46.2%, p<0.0001). Five CHIKV clusters were detected. Likely spread was mostly by road, but a fifth of rural cases were spread by river travel.
CONCLUSIONS: CHIKV initially spread quickly in rural areas mainly via roads, with lesser involvement of urban areas. Delayed spread occurred via river networks to more isolated areas in the rural interior. Understanding the patterns and timings of arboviral outbreak spread may allow targeted vector control measures at key transport hubs or in large transport vehicles.
METHODS AND ANALYSIS: MERCURIAL is an ongoing multiyear prospective cohort study. Every year, for the next 5 years, a cohort of 1000 Hajj pilgrims was enrolled beginning in the 2016 Hajj pilgrimage season. Pre-Hajj and post-Hajj serum samples were obtained and serologically analysed for evidence of MERS-CoV seroconversion. Sociodemographic data, underlying medical conditions, symptoms experienced during Hajj pilgrimage, and exposure to camel and untreated camel products were recorded using structured pre-Hajj and post-Hajj questionnaires. The possible risk factors associated with the seroconversion data were analysed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. The primary outcome of this study is to better enhance our understanding of the potential threat of MERS-CoV spreading through MG beyond the Middle East.
ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has obtained ethical approval from the Medical Research and Ethics Committee (MREC), Ministry of Health Malaysia. Results from the study will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals and presented in conferences and scientific meetings.
TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NMRR-15-1640-25391.