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Low seroprevalence rates of Zika virus in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Sam IC, Montoya M, Chua CL, Chan YF, Pastor A, Harris E

Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg, 2019 11 01;113(11):678-684.
PMID: 31294807 DOI: 10.1093/trstmh/trz056

BACKGROUND: Zika virus (ZIKV) is believed to be endemic in Southeast Asia. However, there have been few Zika cases reported to date in Malaysia, which could be due to high pre-existing levels of population immunity.
METHODS: To determine Zika virus (ZIKV) seroprevalence in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 1085 serum samples from 2012, 2014-2015 and 2017 were screened for anti-ZIKV antibodies using a ZIKV NS1 blockade-of-binding assay. Reactive samples were confirmed using neutralization assays against ZIKV and the four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes. A sample was possible ZIKV seropositive with a ZIKV 50% neutralization (NT50) titre ≥20. A sample was probable ZIKV seropositive if, in addition, all DENV NT50 titres were <20 or the ZIKV NT50 titre was >4-fold greater than the highest DENV NT50 titre.
RESULTS: We found low rates of possible ZIKV seropositivity (3.3% [95% confidence interval {CI} 2.4 to 4.6]) and probable ZIKV seropositivity (0.6% [95% CI 0.3 to 1.4]). Possible ZIKV seropositivity was independently associated with increasing age (odds ratio [OR] 1.04 [95% CI 1.02 to 1.06], p<0.0001) and male gender (OR 3.5 [95% CI 1.5 to 8.6], p=0.005).
CONCLUSIONS: The low ZIKV seroprevalence rate, a proxy for population immunity, does not explain the low incidence of Zika in dengue-hyperendemic Kuala Lumpur. Other factors, such as the possible protective effects of pre-existing flavivirus antibodies or reduced transmission by local mosquito vectors, should be explored. Kuala Lumpur is at high risk of a large-scale Zika epidemic.
Fulltext Approaches to refining estimates of global burden and economics of dengue

Shepard DS, Undurraga EA, Betancourt-Cravioto M, Guzmán MG, Halstead SB, Harris E, et al.

PLoS Negl Trop Dis, 2014 Nov;8(11):e3306.
PMID: 25412506 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003306

Dengue presents a formidable and growing global economic and disease burden, with around half the world's population estimated to be at risk of infection. There is wide variation and substantial uncertainty in current estimates of dengue disease burden and, consequently, on economic burden estimates. Dengue disease varies across time, geography and persons affected. Variations in the transmission of four different viruses and interactions among vector density and host's immune status, age, pre-existing medical conditions, all contribute to the disease's complexity. This systematic review aims to identify and examine estimates of dengue disease burden and costs, discuss major sources of uncertainty, and suggest next steps to improve estimates. Economic analysis of dengue is mainly concerned with costs of illness, particularly in estimating total episodes of symptomatic dengue. However, national dengue disease reporting systems show a great diversity in design and implementation, hindering accurate global estimates of dengue episodes and country comparisons. A combination of immediate, short-, and long-term strategies could substantially improve estimates of disease and, consequently, of economic burden of dengue. Suggestions for immediate implementation include refining analysis of currently available data to adjust reported episodes and expanding data collection in empirical studies, such as documenting the number of ambulatory visits before and after hospitalization and including breakdowns by age. Short-term recommendations include merging multiple data sources, such as cohort and surveillance data to evaluate the accuracy of reporting rates (by health sector, treatment, severity, etc.), and using covariates to extrapolate dengue incidence to locations with no or limited reporting. Long-term efforts aim at strengthening capacity to document dengue transmission using serological methods to systematically analyze and relate to epidemiologic data. As promising tools for diagnosis, vaccination, vector control, and treatment are being developed, these recommended steps should improve objective, systematic measures of dengue burden to strengthen health policy decisions.
Fulltext Descriptive Epidemiology of Somatising Tendency: Findings from the CUPID Study

Vargas-Prada S, Coggon D, Ntani G, Walker-Bone K, Palmer KT, Felli VE, et al.

PLoS One, 2016;11(4):e0153748.
PMID: 27128094 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0153748

Somatising tendency, defined as a predisposition to worry about common somatic symptoms, is importantly associated with various aspects of health and health-related behaviour, including musculoskeletal pain and associated disability. To explore its epidemiological characteristics, and how it can be specified most efficiently, we analysed data from an international longitudinal study. A baseline questionnaire, which included questions from the Brief Symptom Inventory about seven common symptoms, was completed by 12,072 participants aged 20-59 from 46 occupational groups in 18 countries (response rate 70%). The seven symptoms were all mutually associated (odds ratios for pairwise associations 3.4 to 9.3), and each contributed to a measure of somatising tendency that exhibited an exposure-response relationship both with multi-site pain (prevalence rate ratios up to six), and also with sickness absence for non-musculoskeletal reasons. In most participants, the level of somatising tendency was little changed when reassessed after a mean interval of 14 months (75% having a change of 0 or 1 in their symptom count), although the specific symptoms reported at follow-up often differed from those at baseline. Somatising tendency was more common in women than men, especially at older ages, and varied markedly across the 46 occupational groups studied, with higher rates in South and Central America. It was weakly associated with smoking, but not with level of education. Our study supports the use of questions from the Brief Symptom Inventory as a method for measuring somatising tendency, and suggests that in adults of working age, it is a fairly stable trait.
Fulltext Classification of neck/shoulder pain in epidemiological research: a comparison of personal and occupational characteristics, disability, and prognosis among 12,195 workers from 18 countries

Sarquis LMM, Coggon D, Ntani G, Walker-Bone K, Palmer KT, Felli VE, et al.

Pain, 2016 May;157(5):1028-1036.
PMID: 26761390 DOI: 10.1097/j.pain.0000000000000477

To inform case definition for neck/shoulder pain in epidemiological research, we compared levels of disability, patterns of association, and prognosis for pain that was limited to the neck or shoulders (LNSP) and more generalised musculoskeletal pain that involved the neck or shoulder(s) (GPNS). Baseline data on musculoskeletal pain, disability, and potential correlates were collected by questionnaire from 12,195 workers in 47 occupational groups (mostly office workers, nurses, and manual workers) in 18 countries (response rate = 70%). Continuing pain after a mean interval of 14 months was ascertained through a follow-up questionnaire in 9150 workers from 45 occupational groups. Associations with personal and occupational factors were assessed by Poisson regression and summarised by prevalence rate ratios (PRRs). The 1-month prevalence of GPNS at baseline was much greater than that of LNSP (35.1% vs 5.6%), and it tended to be more troublesome and disabling. Unlike LNSP, the prevalence of GPNS increased with age. Moreover, it showed significantly stronger associations with somatising tendency (PRR 1.6 vs 1.3) and poor mental health (PRR 1.3 vs 1.1); greater variation between the occupational groups studied (prevalence ranging from 0% to 67.6%) that correlated poorly with the variation in LNSP; and was more persistent at follow-up (72.1% vs 61.7%). Our findings highlight important epidemiological distinctions between subcategories of neck/shoulder pain. In future epidemiological research that bases case definitions on symptoms, it would be useful to distinguish pain that is localised to the neck or shoulder from more generalised pain that happens to involve the neck/shoulder region.