Illicit trade carries the potential to magnify existing tobacco-related health care costs through increased availability of untaxed and inexpensive cigarettes. What is known with respect to the magnitude of illicit trade for Vietnam is produced primarily by the industry, and methodologies are typically opaque. Independent assessment of the illicit cigarette trade in Vietnam is vital to tobacco control policy. This paper measures the magnitude of illicit cigarette trade for Vietnam between 1998 and 2010 using two methods, discrepancies between legitimate domestic cigarette sales and domestic tobacco consumption estimated from surveys, and trade discrepancies as recorded by Vietnam and trade partners. The results indicate that Vietnam likely experienced net smuggling in during the period studied. With the inclusion of adjustments for survey respondent under-reporting, inward illicit trade likely occurred in three of the four years for which surveys were available. Discrepancies in trade records indicate that the value of smuggled cigarettes into Vietnam ranges from $100 million to $300 million between 2000 and 2010 and that these cigarettes primarily originate in Singapore, Hong Kong, Macao, Malaysia, and Australia. Notable differences in trends over time exist between the two methods, but by comparison, the industry estimates consistently place the magnitude of illicit trade at the upper bounds of what this study shows. The unavailability of annual, survey-based estimates of consumption may obscure the true, annual trend over time. Second, as surveys changed over time, estimates relying on them may be inconsistent with one another. Finally, these two methods measure different components of illicit trade, specifically consumption of illicit cigarettes regardless of origin and smuggling of cigarettes into a particular market. However, absent a gold standard, comparisons of different approaches to illicit trade measurement serve efforts to refine and improve measurement approaches and estimates.
Crimes forecasting is an important area in the field of criminology. Linear models, such as regression and econometric models, are commonly applied in crime forecasting. However, in real crimes data, it is common that the data consists of both linear and nonlinear components. A single model may not be sufficient to identify all the characteristics of the data. The purpose of this study is to introduce a hybrid model that combines support vector regression (SVR) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) to be applied in crime rates forecasting. SVR is very robust with small training data and high-dimensional problem. Meanwhile, ARIMA has the ability to model several types of time series. However, the accuracy of the SVR model depends on values of its parameters, while ARIMA is not robust to be applied to small data sets. Therefore, to overcome this problem, particle swarm optimization is used to estimate the parameters of the SVR and ARIMA models. The proposed hybrid model is used to forecast the property crime rates of the United State based on economic indicators. The experimental results show that the proposed hybrid model is able to produce more accurate forecasting results as compared to the individual models.
Remarkable improvements in economic conditions and a considerable upgrade in the quality of life have been observed in many parts of Asia during the past several decades. At the same time, many mental health challenges face the people of Asia. Various social mental health indexes are reviewed here, with available data from China, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, and other Asian societies. The data are compared with data from the United States, Australia in the Pacific Rim, and some other Western countries to examine patterns of similarity or difference between East and West in the process of modernization. Common trends in mental health issues associated with rapid sociocultural change observed in different Asian societies are discussed, as well as the relative shortage of mental health personnel available in many Asian societies. It is emphasized that, in addition to expanding psychiatric services, there is an even more urgent need to promote mental health knowledge and concern through education in the general population. Mental health needs to be cultivated and maintained by social forces and cultural strengths. It is stressed that there is a challenge for Asian people to advance mental health beyond economic development in the 21st century.
Matched MeSH terms: Crime/statistics & numerical data
Environmental degradation is at an alarming level in developing economies. The present paper examines the direct and indirect impacts of corruption on environmental deterioration using the panel data of 64 developing countries. Adopting the generalized method of moments (GMM) technique, the paper finds evidence that corruption exhibits a positive impact on pollution. Subsequently, there is also evidence indicating that the level of pollution tends to be higher in countries with a higher level of corruption, eliminating the effectiveness of income effect on environmental preservation. These results also suggest that environmental degradation is monotonically increasing with higher corruption and invalidate the presence of the EKC. Hence, a policy focuses that an anti-corruption particularly in the environmental and natural resources sector needs to be emphasized and enforced in order to reduce or possibly to totally eliminate the rent for corruption.
Infant abandonment and infanticide are poorly understood in Malaysia. The information available in the public arena comes predominantly from anecdotal sources. The aim of this study was to describe the prevalence and characteristics of infanticide and illegal infant abandonment in Malaysia and to estimate annual rates for the most recent decade. Summaries of data about infanticide and illegal infant abandonment were gathered from police records; the annual number of live births was ascertained from the national registry. The estimated inferred infanticide rates for Malaysia were compared with the infanticide rates among countries of very high, high, medium, and low rankings on the Human Development, Gender Inequality, and Gini indices. From 1999 to 2011, 1,069 cases of illegal infant abandonment were recorded and 1,147 people were arrested as suspected perpetrators. The estimated inferred infanticide rate fluctuated between 4.82 and 9.11 per 100,000 live births, a moderate rate relative to the infanticide rates of other countries. There are substantial missing data, with details undocumented for about 78-87% of cases and suspected perpetrators. Of the documented cases, it appeared that more boys than girls were victims and that suspected perpetrators were predominantly Malays who were women, usually mothers of the victim; the possibility of arrest bias must be acknowledged. Economic and social inequality, particularly gender inequality, might contribute to the phenomena of infanticide and abandonment. Strategies to reduce rates of infanticide and illegal infant abandonment in Malaysia will require strengthening of the surveillance system and attention to the gender-based inequalities that underpin human development.
Matched MeSH terms: Crime/statistics & numerical data
BACKGROUND: Several studies have reported significant positive correlations between smoking during pregnancy by mothers and the involvement of their offspring in criminal/delinquent behaviour later in life, but these findings have been described as modest and the criminality based on official conviction statistics.
AIMS: We sought to verify this relationship and probe for more details on the basis of self-reported offending among college students.
METHODS: Independently completed questionnaires were collected from 6332 students and their mothers. The students provided information about their delinquent acts, if any, according to eight categories. Their mothers provided retrospective reports of their smoking habits, if any, during pregnancy.
FINDINGS: Mothers who recalled having smoked during pregnancy were significantly more likely than non-smoking mothers to have offspring who self-reported engaging in some types of delinquency. This relationship was more evident for female offspring than for male offspring and was most pronounced for illegal drug use by the offspring. There was, however, no relationship between offspring offending and estimated number of cigarettes smoked by mothers, month of pregnancy when smoked or consistency of smoking throughout pregnancy.
CONCLUSION: Overall, our study confirms that maternal smoking during pregnancy is associated with offspring involvement in delinquency, but the lack of critical timing or dose-response relationships between maternal smoking and later offspring delinquency cast doubt on the possibility that the associations are due to teratogenic effects of tobacco smoke.
Study site: college students at 20 US and two Canadian universities
Matched MeSH terms: Crime/statistics & numerical data
Southeast and East Asia has become a global hub for methamphetamine production and trafficking over the past decade. This paper describes the rise of methamphetamine supply and to what extent use of the drug is occurring in the region.
Matched MeSH terms: Crime/statistics & numerical data