METHODS: Using panel data from the 1999-2015 Euromonitor International, the World Bank and the World Health Organization, we applied fixed effects regression models of panel data to estimate the elasticity of cigarette prices and to simulate the effect of price fluctuations.
RESULTS: Cigarette price elasticity was the highest for countries with a per capita Gross National Income (GNI) above US$6000 (China and Malaysia), and considerably higher for other economies in the region. The administered simulation shows that with an average annual cigarette price increase of 9.51%, the average annual cigarette consumption would decrease by 3.56%, and the average annual tobacco tax revenue would increase by 16.20%. The number of averted smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) would be the highest in China, followed by Indonesia and India. In total, over 17.96 million lives could be saved by tax increases.
CONCLUSION: Excise tax increases have a significant effect on the reduction of smoking prevalence and the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths. Middle- and upper-middle income countries would be most affected by high-taxation policies.
OBJECTIVES: First, this study aims to document, using data from the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project (ITC), levels and trends in cigarette users' tax avoidance and tax evasion behaviour in a sample of 16 low-, middle- and high-income countries. Second, this study explores factors associated with cigarette tax avoidance and evasion.
METHODS: We used data from ITC surveys conducted in 16 countries to estimate the extent and type of cigarette tax avoidance/evasion between countries and across time. We used self-reported information about the source of a smoker's last purchase of cigarettes or self-reported packaging information, or similar information gathered by the interviewers during face-to-face interviews to measure tax avoidance/evasion behaviours. We used generalised estimating equations to explore individual-level factors that may affect the likelihood of cigarette tax avoidance or evasion in Canada, the USA, the UK and France.
FINDINGS: We found prevalence estimates of cigarette tax avoidance/evasion vary substantially between countries and across time. In Canada, France and the UK, more than 10% of smokers reported last purchasing cigarettes from low or untaxed sources, while in Malaysia some prevalence estimates suggested substantial cigarette tax avoidance/evasion. We also found important associations between household income and education and the likelihood to engage in tax avoidance/evasion. These associations, however, varied both in direction and magnitude across countries.
METHODS: We analysed Demographic and Health Survey data on tobacco use collected from large nationally representative samples of men and women in 54 LMICs. We estimated the weighted prevalence of any current tobacco use (including smokeless tobacco) in each country for 4 educational groups and 4 wealth groups. We calculated absolute and relative measures of inequality, that is, the slope index of inequality (SII) and relative index of inequality (RII), which take into account the distribution of prevalence across all education and wealth groups and account for population size. We also calculated the aggregate SII and RII for low-income (LIC), lower-middle-income (lMIC) and upper-middle-income (uMIC) countries as per World Bank classification.
FINDINGS: Male tobacco use was highest in Bangladesh (70.3%) and lowest in Sao Tome (7.4%), whereas female tobacco use was highest in Madagascar (21%) and lowest in Tajikistan (0.22%). Among men, educational inequalities varied widely between countries, but aggregate RII and SII showed an inverse trend by country wealth groups. RII was 3.61 (95% CI 2.83 to 4.61) in LICs, 1.99 (95% CI 1.66 to 2.38) in lMIC and 1.82 (95% CI 1.24 to 2.67) in uMIC. Wealth inequalities among men varied less between countries, but RII and SII showed an inverse pattern where RII was 2.43 (95% CI 2.05 to 2.88) in LICs, 1.84 (95% CI 1.54 to 2.21) in lMICs and 1.67 (95% CI 1.15 to 2.42) in uMICs. For educational inequalities among women, the RII varied much more than SII varied between the countries, and the aggregate RII was 14.49 (95% CI 8.87 to 23.68) in LICs, 3.05 (95% CI 1.44 to 6.47) in lMIC and 1.58 (95% CI 0.33 to 7.56) in uMIC. Wealth inequalities among women showed a pattern similar to that of men: the RII was 5.88 (95% CI 3.91 to 8.85) in LICs, 1.76 (95% CI 0.80 to 3.85) in lMIC and 0.39 (95% CI 0.09 to 1.64) in uMIC. In contrast to men, among women, the SII was pro-rich (higher smoking among the more advantaged) in 13 of the 52 countries (7 of 23 lMIC and 5 of 7 uMIC).
INTERPRETATION: Our results confirm that socioeconomic inequalities tobacco use exist in LMIC, varied widely between the countries and were much wider in the lowest income countries. These findings are important for better understanding and tackling of socioeconomic inequalities in health in LMIC.
METHODS: Score sheet based on WHO FCTC Article 5.3 Guidelines sent to correspondents in seven Southeast Asian countries, using a scoring system designed with the help of tobacco control experts and validated through focused group discussions.
RESULTS: The seven countries ranked from the lowest level of interference to the highest are Brunei, Thailand, Lao PDR, Cambodia, Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia. Countries that face high levels of unnecessary interaction with the tobacco industry also face high levels of tobacco industry influence in policy development. Most governments do not allow any tobacco industry representatives on their delegation to sessions of the Conference of the Parties or its subsidiary bodies nor accept their sponsorship for delegates, but most governments still accept or endorse offers of assistance from the tobacco industry in implementing tobacco control policies. Most governments also receive tobacco industry contributions (monetary or in kind) or endorse industry corporate social responsibility activities. Governments do not have a procedure for disclosing interactions with the tobacco industry, but Lao PDR, Philippines and Thailand have instituted measures to prevent or reduce industry interference.
CONCLUSIONS: This Tobacco Industry Interference Index, based on the WHO FCTC Article 5.3 Guidelines, is a useful advocacy tool for identifying both progress and gaps in national efforts at implementing WHO FCTC Article 5.3.