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Asymmetric impact of temperature on COVID-19 spread in India: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression approach

Irfan M 1 , Razzaq A 2 , Suksatan W 3 , Sharif A 4 , Madurai Elavarasan R 5 , Yang C 6 Show all authors , Hao Y 7 , Rauf A 8

Affiliations 

  • 1 School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China; Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China. Electronic address: irfansahar@bit.edu.cn
  • 2 School of Management & Economics, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, PR China; Department of Business Administration, ILMA University, Karachi, Pakistan. Electronic address: asifrazzaq@yahoo.com
  • 3 HRH Princess Chulabhorn College of Medical Science, Chulabhorn Royal Academy, Bangkok, 10210, Thailand. Electronic address: wanich.suk@pccms.ac.th
  • 4 Othman Yeop Abdullah Graduate School of Business, Universiti Utara Malaysia, 06010, Sintok, Kedah, Malaysia. Electronic address: arshian.aslam@gmail.com
  • 5 Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Thiagarajar College of Engineering, Madurai 625015, India; Research and Development Division (Power& Energy), Nestlives Pvt Ltd, Chennai 600091, India. Electronic address: rajvikram787@gmail.com
  • 6 School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China; Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China. Electronic address: yangchuxiao1991@hotmail.com
  • 7 School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China; Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China; Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management, Beijing, 100081, China; Sustainable Development Research Institute for Economy and Society of Beijing, Beijing, 100081, China; Collaborative Innovation Center of Electric Vehicles in Beijing, Beijing, 100081, China. Electronic address: haoyuking@bit.edu.cn
  • 8 School of Management Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), No.219 Ningliu Road, Nanjing City, Jiangsu Province, China. Electronic address: abdulrauf@seu.edu.cn
J Therm Biol, 2022 Feb;104:103101.
PMID: 35180949 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtherbio.2021.103101

Abstract

The emergence of new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has become a significant public health issue worldwide. Some researchers have identified a positive link between temperature and COVID-19 cases. However, no detailed research has highlighted the impact of temperature on COVID-19 spread in India. This study aims to fill this research gap by investigating the impact of temperature on COVID-19 spread in the five most affected Indian states. Quantile-on-Quantile regression (QQR) approach is employed to examine in what manner the quantiles of temperature influence the quantiles of COVID-19 cases. Empirical results confirm an asymmetric and heterogenous impact of temperature on COVID-19 spread across lower and higher quantiles of both variables. The results indicate a significant positive impact of temperature on COVID-19 spread in the three Indian states (Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka), predominantly in both low and high quantiles. Whereas, the other two states (Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh) exhibit a mixed trend, as the lower quantiles in both states have a negative effect. However, this negative effect becomes weak at middle and higher quantiles. These research findings offer valuable policy recommendations.

* Title and MeSH Headings from MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine.

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