The impact of climate variables on marine fish production: an empirical evidence from Bangladesh based on autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach

Several studies have highlighted the significant impact of climate change on agriculture. However, there have been little empirical enquiries into the impact of climate change on marine fish production, particularly in Bangladesh. Hence, this study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on marine fish production in Bangladesh using data from 1961 to 2019. Data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization, Bangladesh Meteorological Department, the World Development Indicators, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was used to describe the dynamic link between CO2 emissions, average temperature, Sea Surface Temperature (SST), rainfall, sunshine, wind and marine fish production. The ARDL approach to cointegration revealed that SST (β = 0.258), rainfall (β =0.297), and sunshine (β =0.663) significantly influence marine fish production at 1% and 10% levels in the short run and at 1% level in the long run. The results also found that average temperature has a significant negative impact on fish production in both short and long runs. On the other hand, CO2 emissions have a negative impact on marine fish production in the short run. Specifically, for every 1% rise in CO2 emissions, marine fish production will decline by 0.11%. The findings of this study suggest that policymakers formulate better policy frameworks for climate change adaptation and sustainable management of marine fisheries at the national level. Research and development in Bangladesh's fisheries sector should also focus on marine fish species that can resist high sea surface temperatures, CO2 emissions, and average temperatures.