Predictive analytics of COVID-19 cases and tourist arrivals in ASEAN based on covid-19 cases

PURPOSE: Research into predictive analytics, which helps predict future values using historical data, is crucial. In order to foresee future instances of COVID-19, a method based on the Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) model is proposed here. Additionally, the suggested model is able to predict tourist arrivals in the tourism business by factoring in COVID-19 during the pandemic. In this paper, we present a model that uses time-series analysis to predict the impact of a pandemic event, in this case the spread of the Coronavirus pandemic (Covid-19).

METHODS: The proposed approach outperformed the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Holt Winters models in all experiments for forecasting future values using COVID-19 and tourism datasets, with the lowest mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean squared error (MSE), and root mean squared error (RMSE). The SARIMA model predicts COVID-19 and tourist arrivals with and without the COVID-19 pandemic with less than 5% MAPE error.

RESULTS: The suggested method provides a dashboard that shows COVID-19 and tourism-related information to end users. The suggested tool can be deployed in the healthcare, tourism, and government sectors to monitor the number of COVID-19 cases and determine the correlation between COVID-19 cases and tourism.

CONCLUSION: Management in the tourism industries and stakeholders are expected to benefit from this study in making decisions about whether or not to keep funding a given tourism business. The datasets, codes, and all the experiments are available for further research, and details are included in the appendix.