An application of the backcalculation method to estimate past HIV infection rates in Malaysia

The method of backcalculation estimates past HIV infection rates from available AIDS incidence data and an estimate of the incubation period. The method is used on the Malaysian data to model the AIDS epidemic because it makes use of the Malaysian AIDS incidence data which is fairly reliable and is more reflective of the trend of the epidemic as compared to the HIV infection rate recorded. An application is made on the monthly AIDS incidence data in Malaysia from January 1995 until August 1996 released by the Ministry of Health, Malaysia using the backcalculation program from Bacchetti et al and the incubation period distribution from Brookmeyer to generate the current HIV infection rate for Malaysia (until August 1996).