METHODS: In this systematic review, meta-analysis, and modelling study, we searched PubMed, Ovid, and Web of Science for articles published from database inception until Sept 26, 2022, for prospective and retrospective cross-sectional studies that addressed serological chikungunya virus infection in any geographical region, age group, and population subgroup and for longitudinal prospective and retrospective cohort studies with data on chronic chikungunya or hospital admissions in people with chikungunya. We did a systematic review of studies on chikungunya seroprevalence and fitted catalytic models to each survey to estimate location-specific FOI (ie, the rate at which susceptible individuals acquire chikungunya infection). We performed a meta-analysis to estimate the proportion of symptomatic patients with laboratory-confirmed chikungunya who had chronic chikungunya or were admitted to hospital following infection. We used a random-effects model to assess the relationship between chronic sequelae and follow-up length using linear regression. The systematic review protocol is registered online on PROSPERO, CRD42022363102.
FINDINGS: We identified 60 studies with data on seroprevalence and chronic chikungunya symptoms done across 76 locations in 38 countries, and classified 17 (22%) of 76 locations as endemic settings and 59 (78%) as epidemic settings. The global long-term median annual FOI was 0·007 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·003-0·010) and varied from 0·0001 (0·00004-0·0002) to 0·113 (0·07-0·20). The highest estimated median seroprevalence at age 10 years was in south Asia (8·0% [95% UI 6·5-9·6]), followed by Latin America and the Caribbean (7·8% [4·9-14·6]), whereas median seroprevalence was lowest in the Middle East (1·0% [0·5-1·9]). We estimated that 51% (95% CI 45-58) of people with laboratory-confirmed symptomatic chikungunya had chronic disability after infection and 4% (3-5) were admitted to hospital following infection.
INTERPRETATION: We inferred subnational heterogeneity in long-term average annual FOI and transmission dynamics and identified both endemic and epidemic settings across different countries. Brazil, Ethiopia, Malaysia, and India included both endemic and epidemic settings. Long-term average annual FOI was higher in epidemic settings than endemic settings. However, long-term cumulative incidence of chikungunya can be similar between large outbreaks in epidemic settings with a high FOI and endemic settings with a relatively low FOI.
FUNDING: International Vaccine Institute.
OBJECTIVE: This study aims to provide an up-to-date analysis of the changing global and regional asthma prevalence, mortality, disability, and risk factors among children aged <20 years by leveraging the latest data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Findings from this study can help inform priority areas for intervention to alleviate the rising burden of childhood asthma globally.
METHODS: The study used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, concentrating on children aged 0 to 14 years with asthma. We conducted an in-depth analysis of asthma, including its age-standardized prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), across diverse demographics, such as region, age, sex, and sociodemographic index, spanning 1990 to 2019. We also projected the future burden of the disease.
RESULTS: Overall, in the Western Pacific Region, the age-standardized prevalence rate of asthma among children increased slightly, from 3898.4 cases per 100,000 people in 1990 to 3924 per 100,000 in 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate of asthma also increased slightly, from 979.2 to 994.9 per 100,000. In contrast, the age-standardized death rate of asthma decreased from 0.9 to 0.4 per 100,000 and the age-standardized DALY rate decreased from 234.9 to 189.7 per 100,000. At the country level, Japan experienced a considerable decrease in the age-standardized prevalence rate of asthma among children, from 6669.1 per 100,000 in 1990 to 5071.5 per 100,000 in 2019. Regarding DALYs, Japan exhibited a notable reduction, from 300.6 to 207.6 per 100,000. Malaysia also experienced a DALY rate reduction, from 188.4 to 163.3 per 100,000 between 1990 and 2019. We project that the burden of disease in countries other than Japan and the Philippines will remain relatively stable up to 2045.
CONCLUSIONS: The study indicates an increase in the prevalence and incidence of pediatric asthma, coupled with a decrease in mortality and DALYs in the Western Pacific Region between 1990 and 2019. These intricate phenomena appear to result from a combination of lifestyle shifts, environmental influences, and barriers to health care access. The findings highlight that nations such as Japan have achieved notable success in managing asthma. Overall, the study identified areas of improvement in view of persistent disease burden, underscoring the need for comprehensive collaborative efforts to mitigate the impact of pediatric asthma throughout the region.
Methods and analysis: This retrospective, comparative study of prospectively collected data in an ROP screening programme included infants indicated by gestational age ≤32 weeks, birth weight <1501 g, ventilation for 7 days or requiring oxygen >1 month, who underwent dilated fundoscopic examination from age 4 weeks, every 2 weeks until full retinal vascularisation. Infants with ROP were examined weekly and treated where indicated. Data were divided into two epochs. Epoch 1 oxygen saturation targets were [88-92%], epoch 2 targets [90-95% (99%)] with allowance of increase to 20% for several hours after procedures. Outcome measures included development of ROP, treatment, mortality, sepsis and intraventricular haemorrhage.
Results: A total of 651 infants underwent examination between 2003 and 2016. The incidence of ROP in epoch 1 was 29.1% and epoch 2 was 29.3% (p=0.24). ROP progression doubled in epoch 2 (5 vs 11%, p=0.006), proportion of cases treated halved (14% vs 6%, p=0.0005), sepsis was halved (78.5% vs 41.2%, p<0.0001) and intraventricular haemorrhage doubled (20.2% vs 43.8%, p=0.0001) in epoch 2. Mortality was 4% and 0% in epochs 1 and 2, respectively.
Conclusion: Incidence of ROP did not differ, although ROP cases that worsened doubled with higher oxygen targets. ROP cases requiring treatment decreased, as did sepsis and mortality. Intraventricular haemorrhage cases doubled.