METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: For eight destination countries (Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, India, Malaysia, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, and Singapore), we collected age-dependent seroepidemiological data. We also retrieved the number of imported cases, who were notified to the Japanese government, as well as the total number of travelers to each destination. Using a mathematical model, we estimated the force of infection in each destination country with seroepidemiological data while jointly inferring the reporting coverage of DENV infections among Japanese travelers from datasets of imported cases and travelers. Assuming that travelers had a risk of infection that was identical to that of the local population during travel, the reporting coverage of dengue appeared to range from 0.6% to 4.3%. The risk of infection per journey ranged from 0.02% to 0.44%.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We found that the actual number of imported cases of DENV infection among Japanese travelers could be more than 20 times the notified number of imported cases. This finding may be attributed to the substantial proportion of asymptomatic and under-ascertained infections.
METHODS: Using Singapore Malaysia Hospital-Based Breast Cancer Registry, clinical information was retrieved from 7064 stage I to III breast cancer patients who were diagnosed between 1990 and 2011 and underwent surgery. Predicted and observed probabilities of positive nodes and survival were compared for each subgroup. Calibration was assessed by plotting observed value against predicted value for each decile of the predicted value. Discrimination was evaluated by area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with 95 % confidence interval (CI).
RESULTS: The median predicted probability of positive lymph nodes is 40.6 % which was lower than the observed 43.6 % (95 % CI, 42.5 %-44.8 %). The calibration plot showed underestimation for most of the groups. The AUC was 0.71 (95 % CI, 0.70-0.72). Cancermath predicted and observed overall survival probabilities were 87.3 % vs 83.4 % at 5 years after diagnosis and 75.3 % vs 70.4 % at 10 years after diagnosis. The difference was smaller for patients from Singapore, patients diagnosed more recently and patients with favorable tumor characteristics. Calibration plot also illustrated overprediction of survival for patients with poor prognosis. The AUC for 5-year and 10-year overall survival was 0.77 (95 % CI: 0.75-0.79) and 0.74 (95 % CI: 0.71-0.76).
CONCLUSIONS: The discrimination and calibration of CancerMath were modest. The results suggest that clinical application of CancerMath should be limited to patients with better prognostic profile.
METHODS: Using panel data from the 1999-2015 Euromonitor International, the World Bank and the World Health Organization, we applied fixed effects regression models of panel data to estimate the elasticity of cigarette prices and to simulate the effect of price fluctuations.
RESULTS: Cigarette price elasticity was the highest for countries with a per capita Gross National Income (GNI) above US$6000 (China and Malaysia), and considerably higher for other economies in the region. The administered simulation shows that with an average annual cigarette price increase of 9.51%, the average annual cigarette consumption would decrease by 3.56%, and the average annual tobacco tax revenue would increase by 16.20%. The number of averted smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) would be the highest in China, followed by Indonesia and India. In total, over 17.96 million lives could be saved by tax increases.
CONCLUSION: Excise tax increases have a significant effect on the reduction of smoking prevalence and the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths. Middle- and upper-middle income countries would be most affected by high-taxation policies.
METHOD: The APLC cohort is an ongoing, prospective longitudinal cohort. Adult patients who meet either the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) Modified Classification Criteria for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), or the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) Classification Criteria, and provide informed consent are recruited into the cohort. Patients are routinely followed up at 3- to 6-monthly intervals. Information on demographics, clinical manifestations, treatment, pathology results, outcomes, and patient-reported quality of life (Short-form 36 version 2) are collected using a standardized case report form. Each site is responsible for obtaining local ethics and governance approval, patient recruitment, data collection, and data transfer into a centralized APLC database.
RESULTS: The latest APLC cohort comprises 2160 patients with >12 000 visits from Australia, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand. The APLC has proposed the Lupus Low Disease Activity State (LLDAS) as a treat-to-target (T2T) endpoint, and reported several retrospective and cross-sectional analyses consistent with the validity of LLDAS. Longitudinal validation of LLDAS as a T2T endpoint is currently underway.
CONCLUSION: The APLC cohort is one of the largest contemporary SLE patient cohorts in the world. It is the only cohort with substantial representation of Asian patients. This cohort represents a unique resource for future clinical research including evaluation of other endpoints and quality of care.
METHODS: Data was collected from 13 Asian countries on patients with CLD, known or newly diagnosed, with confirmed COVID-19.
RESULTS: Altogether, 228 patients [185 CLD without cirrhosis and 43 with cirrhosis] were enrolled, with comorbidities in nearly 80%. Metabolism associated fatty liver disease (113, 61%) and viral etiology (26, 60%) were common. In CLD without cirrhosis, diabetes [57.7% vs 39.7%, OR = 2.1 (1.1-3.7), p = 0.01] and in cirrhotics, obesity, [64.3% vs. 17.2%, OR = 8.1 (1.9-38.8), p = 0.002] predisposed more to liver injury than those without these. Forty three percent of CLD without cirrhosis presented as acute liver injury and 20% cirrhotics presented with either acute-on-chronic liver failure [5 (11.6%)] or acute decompensation [4 (9%)]. Liver related complications increased (p
METHODS: DRAGON study was conducted across 9 Asian countries or regions including mainland China, India, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. Patients (N = 557) with CM (aged 18-65 years) were randomised (1:1) to receive once-monthly subcutaneous erenumab 70 mg or matching placebo for 12 weeks. The primary endpoint was the change in monthly migraine days (MMD) from baseline to the last 4 weeks of the 12-week double-blind treatment phase (DBTP). Secondary endpoints included achievement of ≥ 50% reduction in MMD, change in monthly acute headache medication days, modified migraine disability assessment (mMIDAS), and safety. Study was powered for the primary endpoint of change from baseline in MMD.
RESULTS: At baseline, the mean (SD) age was 41.7 (± 10.9) years, and 81.5% (n = 454) patients were women. The mean migraine duration was 18.0 (± 11.6) years, and the mean MMD was 19.2 (± 5.4). 97.8% (n = 545) randomised patients completed the DBTP. Overall, demographics and baseline characteristics were balanced between the erenumab and placebo groups except for a slightly higher proportion of women in the placebo group. At Week 12, the adjusted mean change from baseline in MMD was - 8.2 days for erenumab and - 6.6 days for placebo, with a statistically significant difference for erenumab versus placebo (adjusted mean difference vs placebo: - 1.57 [95%CI: - 2.83, - 0.30]; P = 0.015). A greater proportion of patients treated with erenumab achieved ≥ 50% reduction in MMD versus placebo (47.0% vs 36.7%, P = 0.014). At Week 12, greater reductions in monthly acute headache medication days (- 5.34 vs - 4.66) and mMIDAS scores (- 14.67 vs - 12.93) were observed in patients treated with erenumab versus placebo. Safety and tolerability profile of erenumab was comparable to placebo, except the incidence of constipation (8.6% for erenumab vs 3.2% for placebo).
CONCLUSION: DRAGON study demonstrated the efficacy and safety of erenumab 70 mg in patients with CM from Asia. No new safety signals were observed during the DBTP compared with the previous trials.
TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT03867201.
METHODS: This cross-sectional study utilizes data of adults ≥15 years who completed the Global Adult Tobacco Surveys. Ordered probit analysis is used to account for the smoking statuses of non-smokers, occasional smokers, and daily smokers.
RESULTS: Malaysian and Vietnamese households with more family members face lower smoking likelihoods than otherwise. Urbanites in Philippines and rural residents in Thailand and Indonesia are more likely to smoke on occasional and daily basis than others. Males are consistently more likely to smoke occasionally or daily and less likely to be non-smokers than females across all countries. Younger middle-age (retiree) individuals aged 30-35 (≥60) years in Malaysia and Thailand exhibit higher (lower) likelihoods to smoke occasionally or daily than their younger cohorts aged 15-29 years. Individuals aged 30 years and above in Indonesia, Vietnam, and Philippines display higher daily smoking propensities than others. Higher education levels dampens smoking likelihoods and increases non-smoking propensities in all countries. Non-government or self-employed workers in all countries are more likely to smoke occasionally or daily than unemployed persons. Being married is associated with higher non-smoking likelihoods in Thailand although this association is not evident in Malaysia.
CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that a portfolio of targeted interventions is necessary to meet the needs of specific subpopulations within the various countries.
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