A noticeable increase in drought frequency and severity has been observed across the globe due to climate change, which attracted scientists in development of drought prediction models for mitigation of impacts. Droughts are usually monitored using drought indices (DIs), most of which are probabilistic and therefore, highly stochastic and non-linear. The current research investigated the capability of different versions of relatively well-explored machine learning (ML) models including random forest (RF), minimum probability machine regression (MPMR), M5 Tree (M5tree), extreme learning machine (ELM) and online sequential-ELM (OSELM) in predicting the most widely used DI known as standardized precipitation index (SPI) at multiple month horizons (i.e., 1, 3, 6 and 12). Models were developed using monthly rainfall data for the period of 1949-2013 at four meteorological stations namely, Barisal, Bogra, Faridpur and Mymensingh, each representing a geographical region of Bangladesh which frequently experiences droughts. The model inputs were decided based on correlation statistics and the prediction capability was evaluated using several statistical metrics including mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (R), Willmott's Index of agreement (WI), Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and Legates and McCabe Index (LM). The results revealed that the proposed models are reliable and robust in predicting droughts in the region. Comparison of the models revealed ELM as the best model in forecasting droughts with minimal RMSE in the range of 0.07-0.85, 0.08-0.76, 0.062-0.80 and 0.042-0.605 for Barisal, Bogra, Faridpur and Mymensingh, respectively for all the SPI scales except one-month SPI for which the RF showed the best performance with minimal RMSE of 0.57, 0.45, 0.59 and 0.42, respectively.
Rapid industrialization, urbanization, global warming, and climate change are compromising surface water quality across the globe. Consequently, water conservation is essential for both environmental sustainability and human survival. This study assesses the water quality of the Jamuna River in Bangladesh at five distinct sites during wet and dry seasons. It employs six global water quality indices (WQIs) and contrasts the results with Bangladesh's Environmental Quality Standard (EQS) and the Department of Environment (DoE) criteria. The WQI models used are the Weighted Arithmetic WQI (WAWQI), British Columbia WQI (BCWQI), Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment WQI (CWQI), Assigned WQI (AWQI), Malaysian WQI (MWQI), and Oregon WQI (OWQI). Fifteen physicochemical parameters were analyzed according to each WQI model's guidelines. The findings reveal that most parameters surpass the standard permissible values. The WQI model results indicate that the average water quality across the five sites falls into the lowest category. A comparison of the WQI models suggests potential correlations between WAWQI and AWQI, as well as between MWQI and OWQI. The straightforward presentation of the WQI models indicates that while the river water requires treatment for household and drinking use, it remains suitable for irrigation. The decline in water quality is likely attributable to human activities, urbanization, municipal waste disposal, and industrial effluents. Authorities must prioritize regular monitoring and assessment of water quality to address the identified challenges. Restoring the water to an acceptable standard will become increasingly difficult without proactive measures.
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) is one of the latest technologies for high spatial resolution 3D modeling of the Earth. The objectives of this study are to assess low-cost UAV data using image radiometric transformation techniques and investigate its effects on global and local accuracy of the Digital Surface Model (DSM). This research uses UAV Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) data from 80 meters and UAV Drone data from 300 and 500 meters flying height. RAW UAV images acquired from 500 meters flying height are radiometrically transformed in Matrix Laboratory (MATLAB). UAV images from 300 meters flying height are processed for the generation of 3D point cloud and DSM in Pix4D Mapper. UAV LIDAR data are used for the acquisition of Ground Control Points (GCP) and accuracy assessment of UAV Image data products. Accuracy of enhanced DSM with DSM generated from 300 meters flight height were analyzed for point cloud number, density and distribution. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) value of Z is enhanced from ±2.15 meters to 0.11 meters. For local accuracy assessment of DSM, four different types of land covers are statistically compared with UAV LIDAR resulting in compatibility of enhancement technique with UAV LIDAR accuracy.
Digital elevation model (DEM) plays a vital role in hydrological modelling and environmental studies. Many essential layers can be extracted from this land surface information, including slope, aspect, rivers, and curvature. Therefore, DEM quality and accuracy will affect the extracted features and the whole process of modeling. Despite freely available DEMs from various sources, many researchers generate this information for their areas from various observations. Sentinal-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images are among the best Earth observations for DEM generation thanks to their availabilities, high-resolution, and C-band sensitivity to surface structure. This paper presents a comparative study, from a hydrological point of view, on the quality and reliability of the DEMs generated from Sentinel-1 data and DEMs from other sources such as AIRSAR, ALOS-PALSAR, TanDEM-X, and SRTM. To this end, pair of Sentinel-1 data were acquired and processed using the SAR interferometry technique to produce a DEM for two different study areas of a part of the Cameron Highlands, Pahang, Malaysia, a part of Sanandaj, Iran. Based on the estimated linear regression and standard errors, generating DEM from Sentinel-1 did not yield promising results. The river streams for all DEMs were extracted using geospatial analysis tool in a geographic information system (GIS) environment. The results indicated that because of the higher spatial resolution (compared to SRTM and TanDEM-X), more stream orders were delineated from AIRSAR and Sentinel-1 DEMs. Due to the shorter perpendicular baseline, the phase decorrelation in the created DEM resulted in a lot of noise. At the same time, results from ground control points (GCPs) showed that the created DEM from Sentinel-1 is not promising. Therefore, other DEMs' performance, such as 90-meters' TanDEM-X and 30-meters' SRTM, are better than Sentinel-1 DEM (with a better spatial resolution).
Henna and walnut tree bark are widely used by Libyan women as cosmetics. They may contain lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd) and arsenic (As), which, in turn, pose a high risk to their health. This study aims to determine the levels of Pb, Cd and As in henna and walnut tree bark products sold in Libyan markets. The products were analyzed for their Pb, Cd and As content by using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) after a microwave acid digestion. The results showed a significant difference between the henna and walnut tree bark samples in terms of their heavy metals content (p < 0.05). The highest heavy metal concentrations were observed in the walnut tree bark samples whereas the lowest was observed in the henna samples. In addition, 60% of the henna and 90% of the walnut tree bark samples contained Pb levels and approximately 80% of the henna and 90% the walnut tree bark samples contained Cd levels, which are much higher than the tolerance limit. However, As concentrations in all the samples were lower. The results indicated that such cosmetics expose consumers to high levels of Pb and Cd and hence, to potential health risks. Thus, studying the sources and effects of heavy metals in such cosmetics is strongly recommended.
We used AdaBoost (AB), alternating decision tree (ADTree), and their combination as an ensemble model (AB-ADTree) to spatially predict landslides in the Cameron Highlands, Malaysia. The models were trained with a database of 152 landslides compiled using Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry, Google Earth images, and field surveys, and 17 conditioning factors (slope, aspect, elevation, distance to road, distance to river, proximity to fault, road density, river density, normalized difference vegetation index, rainfall, land cover, lithology, soil types, curvature, profile curvature, stream power index, and topographic wetness index). We carried out the validation process using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and several parametric and non-parametric performance metrics, including positive predictive value, negative predictive value, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, root mean square error, and the Friedman and Wilcoxon sign rank tests. The AB model (AUC = 0.96) performed better than the ensemble AB-ADTree model (AUC = 0.94) and successfully outperformed the ADTree model (AUC = 0.59) in predicting landslide susceptibility. Our findings provide insights into the development of more efficient and accurate landslide predictive models that can be used by decision makers and land-use managers to mitigate landslide hazards.
Atmospheric air temperature is the most crucial metrological parameter. Despite its influence on multiple fields such as hydrology, the environment, irrigation, and agriculture, this parameter describes climate change and global warming quite well. Thus, accurate and timely air temperature forecasting is essential because it provides more important information that can be relied on for future planning. In this study, four Data-Driven Approaches, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Regression Tree (RT), Quantile Regression Tree (QRT), ARIMA, Random Forest (RF), and Gradient Boosting Regression (GBR), have been applied to forecast short-, and mid-term air temperature (daily, and weekly) over North America under continental climatic conditions. The time-series data is relatively long (2000 to 2021), 70% of the data are used for model calibration (2000 to 2015), and the rest are used for validation. The autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions have been used to select the best input combination for the forecasting models. The quality of predicting models is evaluated using several statistical measures and graphical comparisons. For daily scale, the SVR has generated more accurate estimates than other models, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE = 3.592°C), Correlation Coefficient (R = 0.964), Mean Absolute Error (MAE = 2.745°C), and Thiels' U-statistics (U = 0.127). Besides, the study found that both RT and SVR performed very well in predicting weekly temperature. This study discovered that the duration of the employed data and its dispersion and volatility from month to month substantially influence the predictive models' efficacy. Furthermore, the second scenario is conducted using the randomization method to divide the data into training and testing phases. The study found the performance of the models in the second scenario to be much better than the first one, indicating that climate change affects the temperature pattern of the studied station. The findings offered technical support for generating high-resolution daily and weekly temperature forecasts using Data-Driven Methodologies.
One of the direct and unavoidable consequences of global warming-induced rising temperatures is the more recurrent and severe heatwaves. In recent years, even countries like Malaysia seldom had some mild to severe heatwaves. As the Earth's average temperature continues to rise, heatwaves in Malaysia will undoubtedly worsen in the future. It is crucial to characterize and monitor heat events across time to effectively prepare for and implement preventative actions to lessen heatwave's social and economic effects. This study proposes heatwave-related indices that take into account both daily maximum (Tmax) and daily lowest (Tmin) temperatures to evaluate shifts in heatwave features in Peninsular Malaysia (PM). Daily ERA5 temperature dataset with a geographical resolution of 0.25° for the period 1950-2022 was used to analyze the changes in the frequency and severity of heat waves across PM, while the LandScan gridded population data from 2000 to 2020 was used to calculate the affected population to the heatwaves. This study also utilized Sen's slope for trend analysis of heatwave characteristics, which separates multi-decadal oscillatory fluctuations from secular trends. The findings demonstrated that the geographical pattern of heatwaves in PM could be reconstructed if daily Tmax is more than the 95th percentile for 3 or more days. The data indicated that the southwest was more prone to severe heatwaves. The PM experienced more heatwaves after 2000 than before. Overall, the heatwave-affected area in PM has increased by 8.98 km2/decade and its duration by 1.54 days/decade. The highest population affected was located in the central south region of PM. These findings provide valuable insights into the heatwaves pattern and impact.
The declining water level in Lake Urmia has become a significant issue for Iranian policy and decision makers. This lake has been experiencing an abrupt decrease in water level and is at real risk of becoming a complete saline land. Because of its position, assessment of changes in the Lake Urmia is essential. This study aims to evaluate changes in the water level of Lake Urmia using the space-borne remote sensing and GIS techniques. Therefore, multispectral Landsat 7 ETM+ images for the years 2000, 2010, and 2017 were acquired. In addition, precipitation and temperature data for 31 years between 1986 and 2017 were collected for further analysis. Results indicate that the increased temperature (by 19%), decreased rainfall of about 62%, and excessive damming in the Urmia Basin along with mismanagement of water resources are the key factors in the declining water level of Lake Urmia. Furthermore, the current research predicts the potential environmental crisis as the result of the lake shrinking and suggests a few possible alternatives. The insights provided by this study can be beneficial for environmentalists and related organizations working on this and similar topics.
Climatic condition is triggering human health emergencies and earth's surface changes. Anthropogenic activities, such as built-up expansion, transportation development, industrial works, and some extreme phases, are the main reason for climate change and global warming. Air pollutants are increased gradually due to anthropogenic activities and triggering the earth's health. Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2), Carbon Monoxide (CO), and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) are truthfully important for air quality measurement because those air pollutants are more harmful to the environment and human's health. Earth observational Sentinel-5P is applied for monitoring the air pollutant and chemical conditions in the atmosphere from 2018 to 2021. The cloud computing-based Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform is applied for monitoring those air pollutants and chemical components in the atmosphere. The NO2 variation indicates high during the time because of the anthropogenic activities. Carbon Monoxide (CO) is also located high between two 1-month different maps. The 2020 and 2021 results indicate AQI change is high where 2018 and 2019 indicates low AQI throughout the year. The Kolkata have seven AQI monitoring station where high nitrogen dioxide recorded 102 (2018), 48 (2019), 26 (2020) and 98 (2021), where Delhi AQI stations recorded 99 (2018), 49 (2019), 37 (2020), and 107 (2021). Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai, Pune, and Chennai recorded huge fluctuations of air pollutants during the study periods, where ~ 50-60% NO2 was recorded as high in the recent time. The AOD was noticed high in Uttar Pradesh in 2020. These results indicate that air pollutant investigation is much necessary for future planning and management otherwise; our planet earth is mostly affected by the anthropogenic and climatic conditions where maybe life does not exist.
This study uses machine learning (ML) models for a high-resolution prediction (0.1°×0.1°) of air fine particular matter (PM2.5) concentration, the most harmful to human health, from meteorological and soil data. Iraq was considered the study area to implement the method. Different lags and the changing patterns of four European Reanalysis (ERA5) meteorological variables, rainfall, mean temperature, wind speed and relative humidity, and one soil parameter, the soil moisture, were used to select the suitable set of predictors using a non-greedy algorithm known as simulated annealing (SA). The selected predictors were used to simulate the temporal and spatial variability of air PM2.5 concentration over Iraq during the early summer (May-July), the most polluted months, using three advanced ML models, extremely randomized trees (ERT), stochastic gradient descent backpropagation (SGD-BP) and long short-term memory (LSTM) integrated with Bayesian optimizer. The spatial distribution of the annual average PM2.5 revealed the population of the whole of Iraq is exposed to a pollution level above the standard limit. The changes in temperature and soil moisture and the mean wind speed and humidity of the month before the early summer can predict the temporal and spatial variability of PM2.5 over Iraq during May-July. Results revealed the higher performance of LSTM with normalized root-mean-square error and Kling-Gupta efficiency of 13.4% and 0.89, compared to 16.02% and 0.81 for SDG-BP and 17.9% and 0.74 for ERT. The LSTM could also reconstruct the observed spatial distribution of PM2.5 with MapCurve and Cramer's V values of 0.95 and 0.91, compared to 0.9 and 0.86 for SGD-BP and 0.83 and 0.76 for ERT. The study provided a methodology for forecasting spatial variability of PM2.5 concentration at high resolution during the peak pollution months from freely available data, which can be replicated in other regions for generating high-resolution PM2.5 forecasting maps.
Shallow landslides damage buildings and other infrastructure, disrupt agriculture practices, and can cause social upheaval and loss of life. As a result, many scientists study the phenomenon, and some of them have focused on producing landslide susceptibility maps that can be used by land-use managers to reduce injury and damage. This paper contributes to this effort by comparing the power and effectiveness of five machine learning, benchmark algorithms-Logistic Model Tree, Logistic Regression, Naïve Bayes Tree, Artificial Neural Network, and Support Vector Machine-in creating a reliable shallow landslide susceptibility map for Bijar City in Kurdistan province, Iran. Twenty conditioning factors were applied to 111 shallow landslides and tested using the One-R attribute evaluation (ORAE) technique for modeling and validation processes. The performance of the models was assessed by statistical-based indexes including sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and area under the receiver operatic characteristic curve (AUC). Results indicate that all the five machine learning models performed well for shallow landslide susceptibility assessment, but the Logistic Model Tree model (AUC = 0.932) had the highest goodness-of-fit and prediction accuracy, followed by the Logistic Regression (AUC = 0.932), Naïve Bayes Tree (AUC = 0.864), ANN (AUC = 0.860), and Support Vector Machine (AUC = 0.834) models. Therefore, we recommend the use of the Logistic Model Tree model in shallow landslide mapping programs in semi-arid regions to help decision makers, planners, land-use managers, and government agencies mitigate the hazard and risk.