Displaying publications 1 - 20 of 25 in total

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  1. Ibrahim HM, Reilly S, Kilpatrick N
    Cleft Palate Craniofac J, 2012 Sep;49(5):e61-3.
    PMID: 21787239 DOI: 10.1597/11-001
    To establish normative nasalance scores for a set of newly developed stimuli in Malay.
  2. Abdul Rahman HI, Shah SA, Alias H, Ibrahim HM
    Asian Pac J Cancer Prev, 2008 Oct-Dec;9(4):649-52.
    PMID: 19256754
    BACKGROUND: In Malaysia, acute leukemia is the most common cancer among children below the age of 15. A case-control study was here conducted for cases from the Klang Valley, Malaysia, who received treatment at the National University of Malaysia Hospital (HUKM) and Kuala Lumpur General Hospital (GHKL). The main objective was to determine any association with environmental factors.

    METHODS: Case subjects were children aged below 15 years and diagnosed with acute leukemia in HUKM and GHKL between January 1, 2001 and May 30, 2007. Control subjects were children aged below 15 years who were diagnosed with any non-cancerous acute illnesses in these hospitals. A total of 128 case subjects and 128 control subjects were enrolled in this study. The information was collected using a structured questionnaire and a global positioning system (GPS) device. All factors were analyzed using unmatched logistic regression.

    RESULTS: The analysis showed that the occurrence of acute leukemia among children was strongly determined by the following factors: family income (odds ratio (OR) 0.19, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.09-0.42), father with higher social contact (OR 7.61, 95% CI: 3.78-15.4), number of elder siblings (OR 0.36, 95% CI: 0.18-0.77), father who smokes (OR 2.78, 95% CI: 1.49-5.16), and the distance of the house from a power line (OR 2.30, 95% CI: 1.18-4.49).

    CONCLUSIONS: Some socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental factors are strong predictors of the occurrence of acute leukemia among children in Klang Valley, Malaysia. In terms of environmental factors, it is recommended that future housing areas should be developed at least 200 m away from power lines.
  3. Ismail A, Campbell MJ, Ibrahim HM, Jones GL
    PMID: 16813662
    Health Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) studies on children with chronic illness such as thalassaemia are limited. We conducted the first study to investigate if children with thalassaemia have a lower quality of life in the four dimensions as measured using the PedsQL 4.0 generic Scale Score: physical, emotional, social and role (school) functioning compared to the healthy controls allowing for age, gender, ethnicity and household income.
  4. Van Dort S, Coyle J, Wilson L, Ibrahim HM
    Int J Speech Lang Pathol, 2013 Feb;15(1):90-5.
    PMID: 23323823 DOI: 10.3109/17549507.2012.757707
    The lead article by Wylie, McAllister, Davidson, and Marshall (2013) puts forward pertinent issues facing the speech-language pathology profession raised by the World Report on Disability. This paper continues the discussion by reporting on a capacity building action research study on the development, implementation, and evaluation of a new approach to early intervention speech-language pathology through clinical education in Malaysia. This research evaluated a student-led service in community-based rehabilitation that supplemented existing and more typical institution-based services. A Malaysian community-based rehabilitation project was chosen due to its emphasis on increasing the equitability and accessibility of services for people with disabilities which was a catalyst for this research. Also, expanding awareness-building, education, and training activities about communication disability was important. The intention was to provide students with experience of working in such settings, and facilitate their development as advocates for broadening the scope of practice of speech-language pathology services in Malaysia. This article focuses on the findings pertaining to the collaborative process and the learning experiences of the adult participants. Through reflection on the positive achievements, as well as some failures, it aims to provide deeper understanding of the use of such a model.
  5. Mohd Khairuddin KA, Ahmad K, Ibrahim HM, Yan Y
    J Voice, 2022 Jan;36(1):106-112.
    PMID: 32456835 DOI: 10.1016/j.jvoice.2020.04.027
    Ideally, an analysis method for laryngeal high-speed videoendoscopy (LHSV) based on the glottal area waveforms (GAW) requires images of a complete view of the glottis to ensure findings that are representatives of the vibratory behaviors of the whole vocal folds. However, in practice, the preferred images may not be obtained at all times. Often, the only available images that a clinician has to work with consist of a partial view of the glottis. This study aims to examine the effects of using images of a partial view of the glottis (ie, posterior-middle, anterior-middle, or middle) on the LHSV-based measures (ie, fundamental frequency (F0GAW), frequency perturbation (jitterGAW), amplitude perturbation (shimmerGAW), open quotient (OQGAW), and Nyquist plot). The participants consisted of 9 young normophonic females. The procedures involved LHSV recording of the vibration of the vocal folds. The images of the complete view of the glottis were analyzed to obtain the LHSV-based measures. The same images were used to simulate the images of partial views of the glottis by changing the outline of the region of interest to include only either the posterior-middle, anterior-middle, or middle parts of the glottis. The LHSV-based measures from the images of the partial views were then compared to those with the complete view . The results showed that all LHSV-based measures from the images of the posterior-middle view were similar to those of the complete view. However, only the F0GAW, jitterGAW, and shimmerGAW from the images of the anterior-middle and middle views were similar to those of the complete view. Lower OQGAW and different Nyquist plots than those of the complete view were generated by the images of the anterior-middle and middle views. In conclusion, all LHSV-based measures from the images of the posterior-middle view of the glottis, and only the F0GAW, jitterGAW, and shimmerGAW from the images of the anterior-middle and middle views of the glottis reflect the vibratory behaviors of the whole vocal folds. The same conclusion could not be applied to the OQGAW and Nyquist plots of the images of the anterior-middle and middle views of the glottis. A possible effect of the presence or absence of a posterior glottal gap on the findings warrants further confirmation.
  6. Gan G, Teh A, Chan L, Cheong S, Chang K, Ibrahim H
    Bone Marrow Transplant, 2008 Aug;42 Suppl 1:S103-S105.
    PMID: 18724278 DOI: 10.1038/bmt.2008.129
    Malaysia conducted the first BMT in the country in 1987. Since then, there have been 1155 transplantations performed in a total of eight transplant centres. A majority of the transplantations were allogeneic, including myeloablative and nonmyeloablative. A vast majority of donors are HLA identical siblings. The mean age of transplanted patients was 26 years. The major reason for transplantation was hematological malignancies. The overall survival was 60% for allogeneic transplantation and 52% for autologous transplantation. The most common cause of death in transplanted patients was the underlying disease followed by infection-related complications. Currently, the government is expanding the existing public cord blood bank as well as the local donor registry.
  7. Yusof MS, Ibrahim HM, Bressmann T, Hasbi AM
    Clin Linguist Phon, 2024 Apr 18.
    PMID: 38637977 DOI: 10.1080/02699206.2024.2341304
    This study explores the perceptions of facilitators, barriers to communication and strategies in Malaysian school-aged children with non-syndromic cleft lip and palate (CL/P), parents, and teachers. Fourteen children with non-syndromic CL/P aged 7 to 12 years, their parents (n = 16), and their teachers (n = 10) were recruited via purposive sampling. Participants were selected based on resilience scores (RS-10; (Wagnild, 2015) distinguishing low (<34) from high resilience (35-40) (Wagnild, 2015). Individual in-depth interviews were conducted online and evaluated qualitatively. The analyses were conducted utilising the guidelines by Braun and Clarke (2006). Inductive thematic analysis was performed. Facilitators for communication identified by children, parents and teachers were the child's personal attributes, common interests, and helping others. Barriers that were identified were unfamiliar conversation partners, and insensitive comments or questions. Children used passive (e.g. ignored) and active (e.g. retorted, explained the condition) strategies to address social communication issues. Children with high resilience responded more actively than children with low resilience. Strategies that were described by the parents included accepting the child, empowering themselves, following the cleft management plan, and empowering the child. Teachers adopted general approaches such as giving encouragement, increasing confidence, and teaching empathy. The presence of face masks was perceived as both a facilitator and a barrier to communication. The study provides information on challenges encountered and coping mechanisms used by children with non-syndromic CL/P, their parents and their teachers. This knowledge may help the development of targeted interventions to support the communication of children with non-syndromic CL/P in school.
  8. Fathelrahman AI, Awang R, Bashir AA, Taha IA, Ibrahim HM
    Pharm World Sci, 2008 Dec;30(6):759-63.
    PMID: 18704750 DOI: 10.1007/s11096-008-9245-0
    OBJECTIVE: The services of the Ministry of Health Drug Information Center--Khartoum State were evaluated by assessing users' satisfaction.

    METHOD: Four hundred and twenty-three subjects were recruited from center records using a systematic random sampling technique. Subjects who consented were interviewed by telephone using a specially designed semi-structured questionnaire. Descriptive as well as comparative analyses were carried out. Differences between groups were tested using the Chi-square test when applicable.

    RESULTS: The majority of users surveyed (89.6%) had called the center from within Khartoum State and 10.4% of users had called from other states. Of the enquiries, 36.1% were from pharmacists, 29.5% from physicians, and 22.3% from laypersons. The vast majority (93.1%) of respondents were educated to degree level or higher. Approximately one fifth, one half, and one third of the users surveyed had consulted the center >5 times, 2-5 times, and once, respectively. More than 90% of users rated the services provided as good to excellent and 94.7% declared their probable intention to continue utilizing the center in the future.

    CONCLUSION: The center succeeded in satisfying and retaining its users by providing an acceptable quality of service.

  9. Shafie AA, Wong JHY, Ibrahim HM, Mohammed NS, Chhabra IK
    Orphanet J Rare Dis, 2021 04 07;16(1):157.
    PMID: 33827621 DOI: 10.1186/s13023-021-01791-8
    BACKGROUND: Transfusion-dependent thalassaemia (TDT) is a hereditary blood disorder in which blood transfusion is the mainstay treatment to prolong survival and improve quality of life. Patients with this disease require blood transfusion at more than 100 ml/kg annually and iron-chelating therapy (ICT) to prevent iron overload (IOL) complications. There are substantial numbers of TDT patients in Malaysia, but limited data are available regarding the economic burden associated with this disease. The purpose of this study was to determine the lifetime cost of TDT from a societal perspective and identify potential factors increasing patient and family expenditures among thalassaemia populations.

    METHODS: The total lifetime cost per TDT patient (TC1) is the sum of lifetime healthcare cost (TC2) and lifetime patient and family healthcare expenditure (TC3). TC2 was simulated using the Markov model, taking into account all costs subsidized by the government, and TC3 was estimated through a cross-sectional health survey approach. A survey was performed using a two-stage sampling method in 13 thalassaemia centres covering all regions in Malaysia.

    RESULTS: A TDT patient is expected to incur TC2 of USD 561,208. ICT was the main driver of cost and accounted for 56.9% of the total cost followed by blood transfusion cost at 13.1%. TC3 was estimated to be USD 45,458. Therefore, the estimated TC1 of a TDT patient was USD 606,665. Sensitivity analyses showed that if all patients were prescribed oral ICT deferasirox for their lifetime, the total healthcare cost would increase by approximately 65%. Frequency of visits to health facilities for blood transfusion/routine monitoring and patients who were prescribed desferrioxamine were observed to be factors affecting patient and family monthly expenses.

    CONCLUSION: The lifetime cost per TDT patient was USD 606,665, and this result may be useful for national health allocation planning. An estimation of the economic burden will provide additional information to decision makers on implementing prevention interventions to reduce the number of new births and medical service reimbursement.

  10. Amran F, Aziz MN, Ibrahim HM, Atiqah NH, Parameswari S, Hafiza MR, et al.
    J Med Microbiol, 2011 Sep;60(Pt 9):1312-1316.
    PMID: 21459913 DOI: 10.1099/jmm.0.027631-0
    The in vitro antifungal susceptibilities of 159 clinical isolates of Candida species from patients with invasive candidiasis in Kuala Lumpur Hospital, Malaysia, were determined against amphotericin B, fluconazole, voriconazole, itraconazole and caspofungin. The most common species were Candida albicans (71 isolates), Candida parapsilosis (42 isolates), Candida tropicalis (27 isolates) and Candida glabrata (12 isolates). The susceptibility tests were carried out using an E-test. The MIC breakpoints were based on Clinical Laboratory Standards Institute criteria. Amphotericin B and voriconazole showed the best activities against all the isolates tested, with MIC(90) values of ≤1 µg ml(-1) for all major species. Only one Candida lusitaniae isolate was resistant to amphotericin B, and all the isolates were susceptible to voriconazole. In total, six isolates were resistant to fluconazole, comprising two isolates of C. albicans, two of C. parapsilosis, one C. tropicalis and one C. glabrata, and all of these isolates showed cross-resistance to itraconazole. The MIC(90) of itraconazole was highest for C. glabrata and C. parapsilosis. Caspofungin was active against most of the isolates except for five isolates of C. parapsilosis. The MIC(90) of caspofungin against C. parapsilosis was 3 µg ml(-1). In conclusion, amphotericin B remains the most active antifungal agent against most Candida species except for C. lusitaniae. Voriconazole is the best alternative for fluconazole- or itraconizole-resistant isolates. Although five of the C. parapsilosis isolates showed in vitro resistance to caspofungin, more clinical correlation studies need to be carried out to confirm the significance of these findings. Currently, despite the increase in usage of antifungals in our hospitals, especially in the management of febrile neutropenia patients, the antifungal-resistance problem among clinically important Candida isolates in Kuala Lumpur Hospital is not yet worrying. However, continued antifungal-susceptibility surveillance needs to be conducted to monitor the antifungal-susceptibility trends of Candida species and other opportunistic fungal pathogens.
  11. Shafie AA, Chhabra IK, Wong JHY, Mohammed NS, Ibrahim HM, Alias H
    Health Qual Life Outcomes, 2020 May 14;18(1):141.
    PMID: 32408899 DOI: 10.1186/s12955-020-01381-5
    BACKGROUND: The treatment of children with transfusion-dependent thalassemia (TDT) in Malaysia has progressed since 2005. This study provides an updated health-related quality of life (HRQoL) assessment for children with the disorder and the factors affecting the HRQoL.

    METHODS: A cross-sectional HRQoL survey of Malaysian children with TDT was conducted using the PedsQL™ 4.0 Generic Core Scales. Patients with non-transfusion dependent thalassemia and other haemoglobinopathies were excluded. Parent-proxy and self-reported HRQoL scores were obtained using a multi-stage convenient sampling. The relationship between HRQoL scores and demographic factors were tested using association, correlation and regression analysis.

    RESULTS: A total of 368 patients were recruited. The mean (SD) Total Summary Score (TSS) was 80.12(13.87). Predictors for a lower TSS was an increasing age group and the use of dual chelating agents (R2 = 0.057, F (4, 359) = 5.40, p = 

  12. Shafie AA, Chhabra IK, Hui Yi JW, Mohammed NS, Ibrahim HM
    Value Health Reg Issues, 2021 May;24:47-56.
    PMID: 33508751 DOI: 10.1016/j.vhri.2020.08.003
    OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to examine the cross-sectional convergent and known-group validity of the Malay-language EQ-5D-3L instrument in children and adults with transfusion-dependent thalassemia (TDT).

    METHODS: A cross-sectional health-related quality of life survey involving TDT patients from 12 different treatment centers across Malaysia was conducted using the Malay PedsQL 4.0 Generic Core Scales and the Malay EQ-5D-3L questionnaire. Patients with non-TDT and other hemoglobinopathies were excluded. Convergent, discriminant, and known-group validity of the EQ-5D-3L was assessed against the PedsQL 4.0 Generic Core Scales in children. In the adult population, known-group validity of the EQ-5D-3L was assessed using an a priori hypothesis between patients' demographic characteristics and health outcomes obtained from literature.

    RESULTS: A total of 370 children and 225 adults were sampled. The mean (standard deviation) EQ-5D-3L scores of the children were 0.892 (0.082) and the adults were 0.887 (0.085). Convergent and discriminant validity was identified when correlated with the PedsQL domain in children. In both groups, known-group validity was evident when comparing groups of patients with reported problems to the group of patients with no reported problems on the EQ-5D-3L domains based on the a priori hypothesis derived from literature.

    CONCLUSION: This study found convergent, discriminant, and known-group validity of the Malay EQ-5D-3L in a population-based sample of patients with TDT. Hence, the instrument is valid for the assessment of health-related quality of life in children and adults with TDT in Malaysia.

  13. Shafie AA, Mohammed NS, See KF, Ibrahim HM, Wong JHY, Chhabra IK
    Health Econ Rev, 2022 Jan 26;12(1):9.
    PMID: 35080678 DOI: 10.1186/s13561-021-00351-x
    BACKGROUND: Optimizing efficiency has become increasingly critical with the growing demand for finite healthcare resources driven by population growth and an ageing society. Hence, policymakers are urgently finding more efficient ways to deliver health services. Thalassemia is a complex inherited blood disorder with significant prevalence in Malaysia. The high number of patients put substantial strain on the healthcare system. This study aims to evaluate the technical efficiency of thalassaemia care centres throughout Malaysia and the determinants that affect the efficiency.

    METHOD: Data from 30 public hospitals with thalassaemia care centres were collected. A double bootstrap data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach is used with the assumption of input-oriented and variable-to-scale DEA models to generate technical efficiency scores. Bootstrap truncated regression was later conducted to identify the factors affecting the efficiency scores.

    RESULTS: The mean bias-corrected technical efficiency score has improved to 0.75 in 2017 from 0.71 in 2016. In both years, more than 50% of thalassaemia care centres showed good efficiency scores (0.8-1.0). Management factors that affect the efficiency scores include separation of patient management (β = 0.0653) and budget (β = 0.0843), where they are found to positively affect the efficiency scores. In contrast, having longer operating hours is found to inversely influence the performance levels (β = - 0.4023).

    CONCLUSIONS: The study provides a pioneering framework to evaluate the technical efficiency of thalassaemia treatment centres in public healthcare settings and could provide a useful guide for policymaker and thalassaemia care centre managers to improve efficiency in service delivery to thalassaemia patients and their caregivers without compromising quality of care.

  14. Ibrahim HM, Awang IP, Alexander DJ, Manvell RJ, Aini I, Ibrahim AL
    Vet Rec, 1990 Nov 24;127(21):528.
    PMID: 2281590
  15. Hui LH, Ling EY, Rusli YA, See GB, Ibrahim HM
    PLoS One, 2024;19(4):e0299095.
    PMID: 38648208 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0299095
    Previous research on children with cleft lip and palate (CLP) reported unequivocal findings with regard to language skills, with the majority suggesting persistent difficulties in early childhood. While expressive language deficits improved with age, receptive language skills were consistently lower than peers. Further study investigating the long term and persistent impact of language deficits amongst school-aged children with CLP is warranted. This was a cross-sectional study, aimed to determine the language abilities and explore the associated risk factors in Malay speaking children with CLP in Malaysia. Fifty-two children with CLP aged 7- to 12-year-old participated in this study. Language skills were assessed using the Malay Preschool Language Assessment Tool and the adapted Subway-School-age Language & Assessment Measures. Findings revealed that 14 (26.92%) school-aged children with CLP demonstrated language deficits. Children with CLP performed significantly poorer in reading comprehension (p = 0.031) and narrative (p = 0.026) skills. It was found that the age significantly influenced total receptive language score (β = 0.421, p = 0.003) and total expressive language score (β = 0.477, p = 0.000). Findings suggested that children with CLP may continue to have persistent language deficits into their school-age years. Recommendations for regular monitoring of language performance especially for those from younger age groups is warranted to help maximize school attainment.
  16. Klamroth R, Windyga J, Radulescu V, Collins PW, Stasyshyn O, Ibrahim HM, et al.
    Blood, 2021 04 01;137(13):1818-1827.
    PMID: 33150384 DOI: 10.1182/blood.2020005673
    Rurioctocog alfa pegol prophylaxis targeting factor VIII (FVIII) troughs ≥1% has shown to be efficacious with an acceptable safety profile in people with hemophilia A (PwHA). The PROPEL trial compared safety and efficacy of 2 target FVIII troughs in PwHA aged 12 to 65 years, with severe disease, annualized bleeding rate ≥2, and previous FVIII treatment. PwHA were randomized to 12 months' pharmacokinetic (PK)-guided rurioctocog alfa pegol prophylaxis targeting FVIII troughs of 1% to 3% (reference arm) or 8% to 12% (elevated arm); first 6 months was treatment-adjustment period. The primary endpoint was absence of bleeds during the second 6 months, analyzed using multiple imputations (full analysis set [FAS]). In the 1% to 3% and 8% to 12% arms, respectively, point estimates (95% confidence interval) of proportions of PwHA with zero total bleeds were 42% (29% to 55%) and 62% (49% to 75%) in FAS (N = 115; P = .055) and 40% (27% to 55%) and 67% (52% to 81%) in per-protocol analysis set (N = 95; P = .015). Dosing frequency and consumption varied in each arm. Adverse events (AEs) occurred in 70/115 (60.9%) PwHA; serious AEs in 7/115 (6%) PwHA, including 1 treatment-related in 8% to 12% arm (transient anti-FVIII inhibitor). There were no deaths, serious thrombotic events, or AE-related discontinuations. PK-guided prophylaxis was achievable and efficacious in both arms. No new safety signals were observed in the 8% to 12% arm. These results demonstrate elevated FVIII troughs can increase the proportion of PwHA with zero bleeds and emphasize the importance of personalized treatment. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT02585960.
  17. Md Zamri ASS, Singh S, Ghazali SM, Herng LC, Dass SC, Aris T, et al.
    Epidemiol Health, 2021 Sep 23.
    PMID: 34607399 DOI: 10.4178/epih.e2021073
    Objectives: Since March 2020, several phases of the movement control measures were instituted in Malaysia to break the COVID-19 chain of transmission. In this study, we developed Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) models to examine the effects of the various movement control phases on the disease transmissibility and case trends during the third COVID-19 wave in Malaysia.

    Methods: Three SEIR models were developed using the R programming software ODIN interface based on COVID-19 case data from 1 September 2020 to 29 March 2021. The models were validated and subsequently used to provide forecasts of daily cases from 14 October 2020 to 29 March 2021 based on three movement control phases.

    Results: We found that the R values had reduced by 59.1% from an initial high of 2.2 during the Nationwide Recovery Movement Control Order (RMCO) to 0.9 during the Movement Control Order (MCO) and Conditional MCO (CMCO) phases. In addition, the observed cumulative and daily highest cases were much lower compared to the forecast cumulative and daily highest cases at 64.4% to 98.9% and 68.8% to 99.8%, respectively.

    Conclusion: We conclude that the movement control measures were able to progressively reduce the R values during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, more stringent movement control measures such as the MCO and CMCO were effective in reducing the R values and case numbers further during the third wave of COVID-19 outbreak in Malaysia due to their higher stringency levels compared to the Nationwide RMCO.

  18. Razali RH, Noorizhab MNF, Jamari H, James RJ, Teh KH, Ibrahim HM, et al.
    Pediatr Hematol Oncol, 2020 Apr;37(3):185-197.
    PMID: 31870219 DOI: 10.1080/08880018.2019.1705949
    Studies had shown that genetic polymorphism plays a significant role in the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics variation of high dose methotrexate (MTX), 5000 mg/m2 regimen. The objective of this study was to investigate the genetic variations associated with the serum level and toxicity of MTX in Malaysian children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). Thirty-eight patients were genotyped for rs717620 (ABCC2), rs4948496 (ARID5B), rs1801133 (MTHFR) and rs4149056 (SLCO1B1). Serum levels of MTX at 48 h post 24 h of intravenous infusion were analyzed by high-performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. The ABCC2 genotype was significantly associated with the serum levels of MTX at 48 h after treatment (p = 0.017). Patients with CT and TT of rs717620 (ABCC2) and TC and CC of rs4948496 (ARID5B) were significantly associated with leukopenia grade I-IV (Fisher Exact Test; p = 0.03 and 0.02, respectively). The three most common MTX related toxicities were leukopenia (60.5%), increased alanine aminotransferase enzyme (47.4%), and thrombocytopenia (47.4%). Our results demonstrate that by prescreening of patients for ABCC2 and ARID5B associated with the serum levels and adverse effects of MTX would identify patients at risk and therefore help a pediatric oncologist to personalize chemotherapy drugs for precision health.
  19. Tan CV, Singh S, Lai CH, Zamri ASSM, Dass SC, Aris TB, et al.
    PMID: 35162523 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19031504
    With many countries experiencing a resurgence in COVID-19 cases, it is important to forecast disease trends to enable effective planning and implementation of control measures. This study aims to develop Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models using 593 data points and smoothened case and covariate time-series data to generate a 28-day forecast of COVID-19 case trends during the third wave in Malaysia. SARIMA models were developed using COVID-19 case data sourced from the Ministry of Health Malaysia's official website. Model training and validation was conducted from 22 January 2020 to 5 September 2021 using daily COVID-19 case data. The SARIMA model with the lowest root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAE) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) was selected to generate forecasts from 6 September to 3 October 2021. The best SARIMA model with a RMSE = 73.374, MAE = 39.716 and BIC = 8.656 showed a downward trend of COVID-19 cases during the forecast period, wherein the observed daily cases were within the forecast range. The majority (89%) of the difference between the forecasted and observed values was well within a deviation range of 25%. Based on this work, we conclude that SARIMA models developed in this paper using 593 data points and smoothened data and sensitive covariates can generate accurate forecast of COVID-19 case trends.
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