DESIGN: A Stock-and-Flow simulation model was used to project smoking prevalence and mortality from 2018 to 2050 under eight different scenarios: (1) maintaining the 2018 status quo, (2) implementation of smoke-free policies, (3) tobacco use cessation programmes, (4-5) health warning about the dangers of tobacco (labels, mass media), (6) enforcement of tobacco advertising bans or (7) tobacco taxation at the highest recommended level and (8) all these interventions combined.
RESULTS: Under the status quo, the smoking prevalence in Japan will decrease from 29.6% to 15.5% in men and 8.3% to 4.7% in women by 2050. Full implementation of MPOWER will accelerate this trend, dropping the prevalence to 10.6% in men and 3.2% in women, and save nearly a quarter million deaths by 2050. This reduction implies that Japan will only attain the current national target of 12% overall smoking prevalence in 2033, 8 years earlier than it would with the status quo (in 2041), a significant delay from the national government's 2022 deadline.
CONCLUSIONS: To bring forward the elimination of tobacco smoking and substantially reduce smoking-related deaths, the government of Japan should fulfil its commitment to the FCTC and adopt stringent tobacco control measures delineated by MPOWER and beyond.
OBJECTIVE: To assess the global distribution of breast cancer stage by country, age group, calendar period, and socioeconomic status using population-based data.
DATA SOURCES: A systematic search of MEDLINE and Web of Science databases and registry websites and gray literature was conducted for articles or reports published between January 1, 2000, and June 20, 2022.
STUDY SELECTION: Reports on stage at diagnosis for individuals with primary breast cancer (C50) from a population-based cancer registry were included.
DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Study characteristics and results of eligible studies were independently extracted by 2 pairs of reviewers (J.D.B.F., A.D.A., A.M., R.S., and F.G.). Stage-specific proportions were extracted and cancer registry data quality and risk of bias were assessed. National pooled estimates were calculated for subnational or annual data sets using a hierarchical rule of the most relevant and high-quality data to avoid duplicates.
MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The proportion of women with breast cancer by (TNM Classification of Malignant Tumors or the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program [SEER]) stage group.
RESULTS: Data were available for 2.4 million women with breast cancer from 81 countries. Globally, the proportion of cases with distant metastatic breast cancer at diagnosis was high in sub-Saharan Africa, ranging from 5.6% to 30.6% and low in North America ranging from 0.0% to 6.0%. The proportion of patients diagnosed with distant metastatic disease decreased over the past 2 decades from around 3.8% to 35.8% (early 2000s) to 3.2% to 11.6% (2015 onwards), yet stabilization or slight increases were also observed. Older age and lower socioeconomic status had the largest proportion of cases diagnosed with distant metastatic stage ranging from 2.0% to 15.7% among the younger to 4.1% to 33.9% among the oldest age group, and from 1.7% to 8.3% in the least disadvantaged groups to 2.8% to 11.4% in the most disadvantaged groups.
CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Effective policy and interventions have resulted in decreased proportions of women diagnosed with metastatic breast cancer at diagnosis in high-income countries, yet inequality persists, which needs to be addressed through increased awareness of breast cancer symptoms and early detection. Improving global coverage and quality of population-based cancer registries, including the collection of standardized stage data, is key to monitoring progress.
METHODS: This is a meta-analysis of seven prospective cohort studies participating in the CHANCES consortium including 18 668 men and 24 751 women with a mean age of 62 and 63 years, respectively. Harmonised individual participant data from all seven cohorts were analysed separately and alternatively for each anthropometric indicator using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models.
RESULTS: After a median follow-up period of 12 years, 1656 first-incident obesity-related cancers (defined as postmenopausal female breast, colorectum, lower oesophagus, cardia stomach, liver, gallbladder, pancreas, endometrium, ovary, and kidney) had occurred in men and women. In the meta-analysis of all studies, associations between indicators of adiposity, per s.d. increment, and risk for all obesity-related cancers combined yielded the following summary hazard ratios: 1.11 (95% CI 1.02-1.21) for BMI, 1.13 (95% CI 1.04-1.23) for WC, 1.09 (95% CI 0.98-1.21) for HC, and 1.15 (95% CI 1.00-1.32) for WHR. Increases in risk for colorectal cancer were 16%, 21%, 15%, and 20%, respectively per s.d. of BMI, WC, HC, and WHR. Effect modification by hormone therapy (HT) use was observed for postmenopausal breast cancer (Pinteraction<0.001), where never HT users showed an ∼20% increased risk per s.d. of BMI, WC, and HC compared to ever users.
CONCLUSIONS: BMI, WC, HC, and WHR show comparable positive associations with obesity-related cancers combined and with colorectal cancer in older adults. For postmenopausal breast cancer we report evidence for effect modification by HT use.
METHODS: This is an observational multi-country study set in low- and middle-income countries. We aim to recruit over 2000 women diagnosed with ovarian cancer across multiple hospitals in 24 countries in Asia, Africa and South America. Country sample sizes have been calculated (n = 70-96 participants /country), taking account of varying national five-year disease prevalence rates. Women within five years of their diagnosis, who are in contact with participating hospitals, are invited to take part in the study. A questionnaire has been adapted from a tool previously used in high-income countries. It comprises 57 multiple choice and two open-ended questions designed to collect information on demographics, women's knowledge of ovarian cancer, route to diagnosis, access to treatments, surgery and genetic testing, support needs, the impact of the disease on women and their families, and their priorities for action. The questionnaire has been designed in English, translated into local languages and tested according to local ethics requirements. Questionnaires will be administered by a trained member of the clinical team.
CONCLUSION: This study will inform further research, advocacy, and action in low- and middle-income countries based on tailored approaches to the national, regional and global challenges and opportunities. In addition, participating countries can choose to repeat the study to track progress and the protocol can be adapted for other countries and other diseases.