The recent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has drawn global attention, affecting millions, disrupting economies and healthcare modalities. With its high infection rate, COVID-19 has caused a colossal health crisis worldwide. While information on the comprehensive nature of this infectious agent, SARS-CoV-2, still remains obscure, ongoing genomic studies have been successful in identifying its genomic sequence and the presenting antigen. These may serve as promising, potential therapeutic targets in the effective management of COVID-19. In an attempt to establish herd immunity, massive efforts have been directed and driven toward developing vaccines against the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen. This review, in this direction, is aimed at providing the current scenario and future perspectives in the development of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2.
The conventional susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model tends to magnify the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases, and thus the estimated total infections and immunized population may be higher than the threshold required for infection control and eradication. The study developed a new SIR framework that allows the transmission rate of infectious diseases to decline along with the reduced risk of contact infection to overcome the limitations of the conventional SIR model. Two new SIR models were formulated to mimic the declining transmission rate of infectious diseases at different stages of transmission. Model A utilized the declining transmission rate along with the reduced risk of contact infection following infection, while Model B incorporated the declining transmission rate following recovery. Both new models and the conventional SIR model were then used to simulate an infectious disease with a basic reproduction number (r0) of 3.0 and a herd immunity threshold (HIT) of 0.667 with and without vaccination. Outcomes of simulations were assessed at the time when the total immunized population reached the level predicted by the HIT, and at the end of simulations. Further, all three models were used to simulate the transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza in the United States and disease burdens were projected and compared with estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. For the simulated infectious disease, in the initial phase of the outbreak, all three models performed expectedly when the sizes of infectious and recovered populations were relatively small. As the infectious population increased, the conventional SIR model appeared to overestimate the infections even when the HIT was achieved in all scenarios with and without vaccination. For the same scenario, Model A appeared to attain the level predicted by the HIT and in comparison, Model B projected the infectious disease to be controlled at the level predicted by the HIT only at high vaccination rates. For infectious diseases with high r0, and at low vaccination rates, the level at which the infectious disease was controlled cannot be accurately predicted by the current theorem. Transmission dynamics of infectious diseases with herd immunity can be accurately modelled by allowing the transmission rate of infectious diseases to decline along with the reduction of contact infection risk after recovery or vaccination. Model B provides a credible framework for modelling infectious diseases with herd immunity in a randomly mixed population.
The first case of COVID-19 in Yemen was confirmed on 10 April 2020. Having faced with a six-year long conflict that has destroyed half of its healthcare facilities and displaced millions, predictions of infections and mortality in Yemen suggested a looming healthcare catastrophe. Difficulty in implementing coordinated lockdowns and preventive measures due to the daily labor working nature of the majority of the population, provided the perfect breeding ground for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. However, official figures of infections and mortality are very low and there have not been confirmed reports of excess mortality. This could indicate that Yemen is silently marching towards forced herd immunity. Seroprevalence studies will provide useful insight into the COVID-19 transmission trajectory in Yemen, which can serve as a guide in planning vaccine distribution strategies and allocating the limited funds wisely.
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is one of the biggest public health threats in the 21st century. Nearly every country in the world has been affected by COVID-19. The magnitude of the problem, with over 179 million confirmed cases and 3.8 million deaths worldwide, has driven researchers to search for vaccines to combat the disease. The discovery and development of a new vaccine, from the initial stage to the vaccine finally reaching the patients, usually take many years. However, given the urgency of the situation, many clinical trials on the COVID-19 vaccines have been conducted at extraordinary speed, whereas several vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 are being administered worldwide. This article gives an overview of the different types of COVID-19 vaccines, with a focus on those with promising results and are commonly used worldwide. It also gives an overview of herd immunity and discusses the challenges in achieving herd immunity through the global vaccination campaigns. Last but not least, some strategies that may be used to address these challenges are discussed.
Dengue virus type 3 genotype III (DENV-3/III) is widely distributed in most dengue-endemic regions. It emerged in Malaysia in 2008 and autochthonously spread in the midst of endemic DENV-3/I circulation. The spread, however, was limited and the virus did not cause any major outbreak. Spatiotemporal distribution study of DENV-3 over the period between 2005 and 2011 revealed that dengue cases involving DENV-3/III occurred mostly in areas without pre-existing circulating DENV-3. Neutralisation assays performed using sera of patients with the respective infection showed that the DENV-3/III viruses can be effectively neutralised by sera of patients with DENV-3 infection (50% foci reduction neutralisation titres (FRNT50) > 1300). Sera of patients with DENV-1 infection (FRNT50 ⩾ 190), but not sera of patients with DENV-2 infection (FRNT50 ⩽ 50), were also able to neutralise the virus. These findings highlight the possibility that the pre-existing homotypic DENV-3 and the cross-reacting heterotypic DENV-1 antibody responses could play a role in mitigating a major outbreak involving DENV-3/III in the Klang Valley, Malaysia.
Introduction: Vaccine-preventable diseases such as pertussis are re-emerging in Malaysia during recent years.
Objective: This research aims to study the local incidence of clinical pertussis among paediatric patients admitted to Hospital Tuanku Fauziah, Perlis over two-year period.
Method: A cross-sectional study was designed in Department of Paediatrics, Hospital Tuanku Fauziah, Perlis from 1 January 2013 till 31 January 2015. Data were collected from medical and laboratory record of cases admitted for clinical pertussis. Analyses for descriptive data were done using frequency and percentage; Pearson chi-square or Fisher exact was used to test association.
Results: 81 cases of clinical pertussis were included in the study. Out of this, there were a total of 28 confirmed cases of pertussis. There was a steady increment in the incidence of pertussis throughout the study period. Cyanosis emerged as the only clinical sign significantly associated with pertussis (p = 0.011). Majority of the confirmed pertussis cases were too young to be immunized (n = 13, 46.4%).
Conclusion: Reappraisal of local health system to strengthen herd immunity in the community is warranted to control disease spread.
BACKGROUND: Malaysia still faces challenges optimizing resources to effectively eliminate measles through high immunization and herd immunity, with sporadic outbreaks of measles as evidence. The objective of this study is to determine the age-specific positive measles antibodies seroprevalence used for assessing the establishment of herd immunity against measles in different age groups. This is useful for identifying vulnerable age groups requiring supplementary immunization.
METHODS: A seroprevalence study was conducted among respondents aged 6-9 years, 15-24 years and 45-54 years attending government health clinics in Seremban between September 2014 and January 2015. A total of 1541 measles IgG antibody status were determined using ELISA technique (NovaTec Immundiagnostica GMBH) and assessment of establishment of herd immunity was based on indicators developed by Plans. Data on socio-demographic background as well as medical and medication history were also gathered.
RESULTS: Seropositive rate for all respondents were 87% (95% CI 85-89), while the rest had either indeterminate [6% (95% CI 5-7)] or negative titre [7% (95% CI 6-8)]. None of the factors analyzed except for age were significant predictors of positive measles antibodies. Seropositive rate differed by age with the highest rate seen in adults (94%; CI 92-96), followed by children (90%; 95% CI 87-94) and adolescents, and young adults (74%; 95% CI 70-78). Based on Plans' indicators, herd immunity was established in adults and children, but not in adolescents and young adults.
CONCLUSIONS: To tackle the most susceptible group in the present study, it is advisable to give booster vaccination to secondary school students and freshmen who enter colleges and universities in Malaysia.
Pneumococcal disease causes large morbidity, mortality and health care utilization and medical and non-medical costs, which can all be reduced by effective infant universal routine immunization programs with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV). We evaluated the clinical and economic benefits of such programs with either 10- or 13-valent PCVs in Malaysia and Hong Kong by using an age-stratified Markov cohort model with many country-specific inputs. The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) was calculated to compare PCV10 or PCV13 against no vaccination and PCV13 against PCV10 over a 10-year birth cohort's vaccination. Both payer and societal perspectives were used. PCV13 had better public health and economic outcomes than a PCV10 program across all scenarios considered. For example, in the base case scenario in Malaysia, PCV13 would reduce more cases of IPD (+2,296), pneumonia (+705,281), and acute otitis media (+376,967) and save more lives (+6,122) than PCV10. Similarly, in Hong Kong, PCV13 would reduce more cases of IPD cases (+529), pneumonia (+172,185), and acute otitis media (+37,727) and save more lives (+2,688) than PCV10. During the same time horizon, PCV13 would gain over 74,000 and 21,600 additional QALYs than PCV10 in Malaysia and Hong Kong, respectively. PCV13 would be cost saving when compared against similar program with PCV10, under both payer and societal perspective in both countries. PCV13 remained a better choice over PCV10 in multiple sensitivity, scenario, and probabilistic analyses. PCV13s broader serotype coverage in its formulation and herd effect compared against PCV10 were important drivers of differences in outcomes.