OBJECTIVE: First, we aimed to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction of the pandemic in East Asia and the Pacific region when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the COVID-19 public health emergency of international concern on May 5, 2023. Second, we used dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the dynamic history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Finally, we aimed to provide historical context for the course of the pandemic in East Asia and the Pacific region.
METHODS: In addition to updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study, this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-sided t test to determine whether the regional weekly speed was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the sample period.
RESULTS: Several countries in East Asia and the Pacific region had COVID-19 transmission rates above an outbreak threshold at the point of the WHO declaration (Brunei, New Zealand, Australia, and South Korea). However, the regional transmission rate had remained below the outbreak threshold for 4 months. In the rolling 6-month window t test for regional outbreak status, the final P value ≤.10 implies a rejection of the null hypothesis (at the α=.10 level) that the region as a whole was not in an outbreak for the period from November 5, 2022, to May 5, 2023. From January 2022 onward, nearly every sequenced SARS-CoV-2 specimen in the region was identified as the Omicron variant.
CONCLUSIONS: While COVID-19 continued to circulate in East Asia and the Pacific region, transmission rates had fallen below outbreak status by the time of the WHO declaration. Compared to other global regions, East Asia and the Pacific region had the latest outbreaks driven by the Omicron variant. COVID-19 appears to be endemic in the region, no longer reaching the threshold for a pandemic definition. However, the late outbreaks raise uncertainty about whether the pandemic was truly over in the region at the time of the WHO declaration.
METHODS: A steering committee identified three areas to address: (1) burden of disease and diagnosis of reflux disease; (2) proton pump inhibitor-refractory reflux disease; (3) Barrett's oesophagus. Three working groups formulated draft statements with supporting evidence. Discussions were done via email before a final face-to-face discussion. We used a Delphi consensus process, with a 70% agreement threshold, using Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) criteria to categorise the quality of evidence and strength of recommendations.
RESULTS: A total of 32 statements were proposed and 31 were accepted by consensus. A rise in the prevalence rates of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease in Asia was noted, with the majority being non-erosive reflux disease. Overweight and obesity contributed to the rise. Proton pump inhibitor-refractory reflux disease was recognised to be common. A distinction was made between refractory symptoms and refractory reflux disease, with clarification of the roles of endoscopy and functional testing summarised in two algorithms. The definition of Barrett's oesophagus was revised such that a minimum length of 1 cm was required and the presence of intestinal metaplasia no longer necessary. We recommended the use of standardised endoscopic reporting and advocated endoscopic therapy for confirmed dysplasia and early cancer.
CONCLUSIONS: These guidelines standardise the management of patients with refractory gastro-oesophageal reflux disease and Barrett's oesophagus in the Asia-Pacific region.