METHOD: This is a retrospective cohort study of confirmed severe dengue patients that were admitted in 2014 to Hospital Kuala Lumpur. Data on baseline characteristics, clinical parameters, and laboratory findings at diagnosis of severe dengue were collected. The outcome of interest is death among patients diagnosed with severe dengue.
RESULTS: There were 199 patients with severe dengue included in the study. Multivariate analysis found lethargy, OR 3.84 (95% CI 1.23-12.03); bleeding, OR 8.88 (95% CI 2.91-27.15); pulse rate, OR 1.04 (95% CI 1.01-1.07); serum bicarbonate, OR 0.79 (95% CI 0.70-0.89) and serum lactate OR 1.27 (95% CI 1.09-1.47), to be statistically significant predictors of death. The regression equation to our model with the highest AUROC, 83.5 (95% CI 72.4-94.6), is: Log odds of death amongst severe dengue cases = - 1.021 - 0.220(Serum bicarbonate) + 0.001(ALT) + 0.067(Age) - 0.190(Gender).
CONCLUSION: This study showed that a large proportion of severe dengue occurred early, whilst patients were still febrile. The best prediction model to predict death at recognition of severe dengue is a model that incorporates serum bicarbonate and ALT levels.
OBJECTIVES: Our study aimed to characterize the clinical, immunological and virological features of confirmed dengue patients in Sri Lanka during the outbreak in 2017 when unusual manifestations of severe dengue were observed.
STUDY DESIGN: Sera from 295 patients who were admitted to Teaching Hospital Kandy, Kandy, Sri Lanka between March 2017- January 2018 were subjected to NS1 antigen, IgM and IgG ELISAs, virus isolation, conventional and real time RT-PCR and next generation sequencing.
RESULTS: Primary and secondary infections were detected in 48.5 % and 51.5 % of the study population, respectively. Two hundred twenty five DENV strains were isolated (219 DENV-2, one DENV-3, two DENV-4, two mixed infections of DENV-2 and -3 and one mixed infection of DENV-2 and -4). Unusual and severe manifestations such as encephalitis, encephalopathy, liver failure, kidney failure, myocarditis, Guillain-Barré syndrome and multi-organ failure were noted in 44 dengue patients with 11 deaths. The viraemia levels in patients with primary infection and unusual manifestations were significantly higher compared to those in patients with secondary infection. A new clade of DENV-2 Cosmopolitan genotype strains was observed with the strains closely related to those from China, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore and Taiwan.
CONCLUSIONS: The new clade of DENV-2 cosmopolitan genotype observed in Sri Lanka in 2017 caused an unprecedented, severe dengue outbreak. The emergence of DENV-3 and DENV-4 in the 2017 outbreak might cause future outbreaks in Sri Lanka.