METHODS: In this geospatial modelling analysis, we developed an integrated database containing information on the distribution of Nipah virus infections in humans and animals from 1998 to 2021. We conducted phylodynamic analysis to examine the evolution and migration pathways of the virus and meta-analyses to estimate the adjusted case-fatality rate. We used two boosted regression tree models to identify the potential ecological drivers of Nipah virus occurrences in spillover events and endemic areas, and mapped potential risk areas for Nipah virus endemicity.
FINDINGS: 749 people and eight bat species across nine countries were documented as being infected with Nipah virus. On the basis of 66 complete genomes of the virus, we identified two clades-the Bangladesh clade and the Malaysia clade-with the time of the most recent common ancestor estimated to be 1863. Adjusted case-fatality rates varied widely between countries and were higher for the Bangladesh clade than for the Malaysia clade. Multivariable meta-regression analysis revealed significant relationships between case-fatality rate estimates and viral clade (p=0·0021), source country (p=0·016), proportion of male patients (p=0·036), and travel time to health-care facilities (p=0·036). Temperature-related bioclimate variables and the probability of occurrence of Pteropus medius were important contributors to both the spillover and the endemic infection models.
INTERPRETATION: The suitable niches for Nipah virus are more extensive than previously reported. Future surveillance efforts should focus on high-risk areas informed by updated projections. Specifically, intensifying zoonotic surveillance efforts, enhancing laboratory testing capacity, and implementing public health education in projected high-risk areas where no human cases have been reported to date will be crucial. Additionally, strengthening wildlife surveillance and investigating potential modes of transmission in regions with documented human cases is needed.
FUNDING: The Key Research and Development Program of China.
METHODOLOGY: PubMed was queried with the keywords of Nelson Bay orthoreovirus OR Pteropine orthoreovirus OR Melaka orthoreovirus OR Kampar orthoreovirus, and returned 17 hits.
RESULTS: Based on prevalence studies, the presence of PRV has been reported in Malaysia and Vietnam, both developing countries. Other case reports also provide further evidence of the presence of PRV in the Southeast Asian region. Despite the absence of PRV in their home countries, travellers from Hong Kong and Japan to Indonesia have returned to their countries ill with this virus, indicating that local communities in Indonesia might be affected by this virus.
CONCLUSIONS: This work aims to bring to light this emerging zoonotic respiratory virus circulating among developing countries in Southeast Asia. To improve the understanding of PRV of the medical and scientific community in the Southeast Asian region, this work introduces the general features of PRV, reports of imported PRV, prevalence, and clinical features of PRV. Gaps in knowledge about PRV have also been identified in this work, and we hope that future studies can be undertaken to improve our understanding of this virus.