Computational modelling of potentially emerging SARS-CoV-2 spike protein RBDs mutations with higher binding affinity towards ACE2: A structural modelling study

The spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 and the host ACE2 receptor plays a vital role in the entry to the cell. Among which the hotspot residue 501 is continuously subjected to positive selection pressure and induces unusual virulence. Keeping in view the importance of the hot spot residue 501, we predicted the potentially emerging structural variants of 501 residue. We analyzed the binding pattern of wild type and mutants (Spike RBD) to the ACE2 receptor by deciphering variations in the amino acids' interaction networks by graph kernels along with evolutionary, network metrics, and energetic information. Our analysis revealed that N501I, N501T, and N501V increase the binding affinity and alter the intra and inter-residue bonding networks. The N501T has shown strong positive selection and fitness in other animals. Docking results and repeated simulations (three times) confirmed the structural stability and tighter binding of these three variants, correlated with the previous results following the global stability trend. Consequently, we reported three variants N501I, N501T, and N501V could worsen the situation further if they emerged. The relations between the viral fitness and binding affinity is a complicated game thus the emergence of high affinity mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 RBD brings up the question of whether or not positive selection favours these mutations or not?