The heterogeneous effects of urbanisation and institutional quality on greenhouse gas emissions in Belt and Road Initiative countries

The rise of urbanisation in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries that contribute to the disruption of the ecosystem, which would affect global sustainability, is a pressing concern. This study provides new evidence of the impact of urbanisation and institutional quality on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the selected 48 BRI countries from the years 1984 to 2017. The models of this study are inferred by using panel regression model and panel quantile regression model to meet the objectives of our study as it contemplates unobserved country heterogeneity. From the panel regression model, the findings indicate that although urbanisation in BRI supports the 'life effect' hypothesis that could dampen the environment quality, this effect could be reduced through better institutional quality. Using the quantile regression method, this study concludes that one-size-fits-all strategies to reduce GHG emissions in countries with different GHG emissions levels are improbable to achieve success for all. Hence, GHG emissions control procedures should be adjusted differently across high-emission, middle-emission and low-emission countries. Based on these results, this study provides novel intuitions for policymakers to wisely plan the urbanisation blueprints to eradicate unplanned urbanisation and improve institutional quality in meeting pollution mitigation goals.