METHODS AND RESULTS: A multidisciplinary panel of fifty-two international experts comprising Hepatologists, Endocrinologists, Diabetologists, Cardiologists and Family Physicians from six continents (Asia, Europe, North America, South America, Africa and Oceania) participated in a formal Delphi survey and developed consensus statements on the association between MAFLD and the risk of CVD. Statements were developed on different aspects of CVD risk, ranging from epidemiology to mechanisms, screening, and management.
CONCULSIONS: The expert panel identified important clinical associations between MAFLD and the risk of CVD that could serve to increase awareness of the adverse metabolic and cardiovascular outcomes of MAFLD. Finally, the expert panel also suggests potential areas for future research.
METHODS AND RESULTS: Using a Delphi-based approach, a multidisciplinary panel of 50 international experts from 26 countries reached a consensus on some of the open research questions regarding the link between MAFLD and CKD.
CONCLUSIONS: This Delphi-based consensus statement provided guidance on the epidemiology, mechanisms, management and treatment of MAFLD and CKD, as well as the relationship between the severity of MAFLD and risk of CKD, which establish a framework for the early prevention and management of these two common and interconnected diseases.
METHODS: A group of 65 experts from 35 countries and six continents, including pediatricians, hepatologists, and endocrinologists, participated in a consensus development process. The process encompassed various aspects of pediatric MAFLD, including epidemiology, mechanisms, screening, and management.
FINDINGS: In round 1, we received 65 surveys from 35 countries and analyzed these results, which informed us that 73.3% of respondents agreed with 20 draft statements while 23.8% agreed somewhat. The mean percentage of agreement or somewhat agreement increased to 80.85% and 15.75%, respectively, in round 2. The final statements covered a wide range of topics related to epidemiology, pathophysiology, and strategies for screening and managing pediatric MAFLD.
CONCLUSIONS: The consensus statements and recommendations developed by an international expert panel serve to optimize clinical outcomes and improve the quality of life for children and adolescents with MAFLD. These findings emphasize the need for standardized approaches in diagnosing and treating pediatric MAFLD.
FUNDING: This work was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82070588, 82370577), the National Key R&D Program of China (2023YFA1800801), National High Level Hospital Clinical Research Funding (2022-PUMCH-C-014), the Wuxi Taihu Talent Plan (DJTD202106), and the Medical Key Discipline Program of Wuxi Health Commission (ZDXK2021007).
METHODS: A prospective-retrospective cohort of 985 patients was identified from the APASL-ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) database and the Chinese Study Group. Complications of ACLF (ascites, infection, hepatorenal syndrome, hepatic encephalopathy, upper gastrointestinal bleeding) as well as cirrhosis and the current main prognostic models were measured for their predictive ability for 28- or 90-day mortality.
RESULTS: A total of 709 patients with HBV-ACLF as defined by the AARC criteria were enrolled. Among these HBV-ACLF patients, the cirrhotic group showed significantly higher mortality and complications than the non-cirrhotic group. A total of 36.1% and 40.1% of patients met the European Association for the Study of Liver (EASL)-Chronic Liver Failure consortium (CLIF-C) criteria in the non-cirrhotic and cirrhotic groups, respectively; these patients had significantly higher rates of mortality and complications than those who did not satisfy the CLIF-C criteria. Furthermore, among patients who did not meet the CLIF-C criteria, the cirrhotic group exhibited higher mortality and complication rates than the non-cirrhotic group, without significant differences in organ failure. The Tongji prognostic predictor model score (TPPMs), which set the number of complications as one of the determinants, showed comparable or superior ability to the Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B-ACLF score (COSSH-ACLFs), APASL-ACLF Research Consortium score (AARC-ACLFs), CLIF-C organ failure score (CLIF-C OFs), CLIF-C-ACLF score (CLIF-C-ACLFs), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score (MELDs) and MELD-sodium score (MELD-Nas) in HBV-ACLF patients, especially in cirrhotic HBV--ACLF patients. Patients with two (OR 4.70, 1.88) or three (OR 8.27, 2.65) complications had a significantly higher risk of 28- or 90-day mortality, respectively.
CONCLUSION: The presence of complications is a major risk factor for mortality in HBV-ACLF patients. TPPM possesses high predictive ability in HBV-ACLF patients, especially in cirrhotic HBV-ACLF patients.
Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study to evaluate the diagnostic performance of four POCT brands at 12 sites in Malaysia. We assessed the sensitivity and specificity of the POCTs for the detection of HBsAg and anti-HCV in a finger-stick capillary or venepuncture whole-blood samples compared with test results from lab-based enzyme immunoassay (EIA) or chemi-luminescence immunoassay (CLIA) assay as the reference standard. We also conducted a cross-sectional study on 30 to 139 serum specimen panel to evaluate the diagnostic performance of a low-cost in-house Applied Biosystem®TaqMan real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay (ABS) for the detection of HCV RNA and HBV DNA, compare with Roche Cobas® Ampliprep/TaqMan assay (COBAS).
Results: Between March and December 2017, we enroll 295 participants for the evaluation of POCT for HBsAg and another 307 participants for POCT anti-HCV evaluation. Three of the four POCT brands dropped out of evaluation early on account of sub-optimal sensitivity. The sensitivity of the remaining POCT for HBsAg was 95.2%and specificity 100%, while the POCT for anti-HCV has a sensitivity of 98.1% and specificity 100%.Hepatitis B virus dioxyribo nucleic acid and HCV RNA concentrations detected by the ABS were systematically higher than those measured by COBAS (mean bias +0.10 and +0.17 log10 IU/mL respectively). The 95% limits of agreement between the two assays are -1.28 to 1.47 log10 IU/mL for HBV DNA and -0.41 to 0.75 log10 IU/mL for HCV RNA.
Conclusion: We found adequate evidence for the diagnostic validity of a low-cost POCT for anti-HCV and HBsAg, as well as for an in-house nucleic acid tests (NAT), to provide support for their broader use in our Hepatitis screening and treatment campaign.
Abbreviations: ABS: Applied Biosystem®TaqMan real-time PCR assay, CI: Confidence interval, CLD: Chronic liver disease, CLIA: Chemi-luminescence immunoassay, COBAS: Roche Cobas® Ampliprep/ TaqMan assay, DAA: Direct Acting Anti-Viral drugs, EIA: Enzyme immunoassay, HBV: Hepatitis B virus, HCV: Hepatitis C virus, HFPM: Hepatitis Free Pahang Malaysia, LOA: Limits of agreement, LOD: Limit of detection, MOH: Ministry of Health, Malaysia, NAT: Nucleic Acid Tests, POCT: Point of Care Tests, SD: Standard deviation, WHO: World Health OrganizationHow to cite this article: Radzi AHM, Tan SS, Mohamed R, Jaya F, Senamjit K, Aun AC, Kutty GA, Wong HS, Abdullah R, Seman MR, Mahtab MA, Morad Z, Lim TO. Hepatitis Screening and Treatment Campaign in Malaysia-Validation of Low-cost Point of Care Screening Tests and Nucleic Acid Tests for Hepatitis B and C. Euroasian J Hepatogastroenterol, 2018;8(2):101-107.
Materials and methods: We developed a mathematical model based on the susceptible-infectious-recovered model to simulate the HBV-induced infection in children under the age of five at three different vaccination rates: 80, 90, and 95%. Additionally the impact of current vaccination coverage was assessed on HBV-induced death rates in the future. Moreover, we took advantage of the mathematical model to investigate the impact of negative bias toward girls in vaccination program on HBV-induced infection and death rates.
Results: The model simulations revealed that 10% increase in the vaccination rate from 80 to 90% can potentially contribute to the significant lowering (around 40%) of HBV-induced infection rate among children. When increased by 5% of vaccination rate from 90 to 95%, the HBV-infection rate is likely to be decreased by another 22%. Likewise, 44% reduction in HBV-induced death rate in the future (2050 onward) can potentially be achieved by 10% increase in the current vaccination rate from 80 to 90%, whereas 5% increase in the current vaccination rate (90-95%) may lead to 24% further reduction of death rate. These results underscored the significant impact of vaccination in reducing HBV-induced infection among children and future death rates in adults. Moreover, at 90% vaccination coverage, the negative bias of vaccination toward girls contributes to an increase of 15 and 12% of HBV-induced infection and death rates, respectively, in female subjects compared to their male counterparts.
Conclusion: The current vaccination coverage (80-90%) is further aggravated by untimely vaccination, dropouts from vaccination program, and negative bias toward girls in vaccination program. Therefore, if the current situation persists, it will not be possible to accomplish the required reduction in HBV-induced infection and death rates by 2030, according to the SDG guidelines. Moreover negative bias in the vaccination program may intensify the HBV-induced infection and death rates in the future.
Clinical significance: In light of the mathematical model, we suggest that the vaccination coverage should be increased to 95% without any negative bias toward girls. To accomplish this, the concerning authorities must ensure timely and full completion of the HBV vaccine schedules, reducing dropouts from vaccination program, and lastly preventing negative bias toward girls to uplift vaccination coverage to more than 95% with gender equality. Without these strategies, the necessary reduction in the HBV-induced infection and death rates in Bangladesh may not be attained per SDG directives.
How to cite this article: Chakraborty S, Chakravorty R, Alam S, et al. A Dynamic Mathematical Modeling Revelation about the Impact of Vaccination on Hepatitis B Virus-induced Infection and Death Rate in Bangladesh. Euroasian J Hepato-Gastroenterol 2019;9(2):84-90.
METHODS: Data was collected from 13 Asian countries on patients with CLD, known or newly diagnosed, with confirmed COVID-19.
RESULTS: Altogether, 228 patients [185 CLD without cirrhosis and 43 with cirrhosis] were enrolled, with comorbidities in nearly 80%. Metabolism associated fatty liver disease (113, 61%) and viral etiology (26, 60%) were common. In CLD without cirrhosis, diabetes [57.7% vs 39.7%, OR = 2.1 (1.1-3.7), p = 0.01] and in cirrhotics, obesity, [64.3% vs. 17.2%, OR = 8.1 (1.9-38.8), p = 0.002] predisposed more to liver injury than those without these. Forty three percent of CLD without cirrhosis presented as acute liver injury and 20% cirrhotics presented with either acute-on-chronic liver failure [5 (11.6%)] or acute decompensation [4 (9%)]. Liver related complications increased (p
METHODS: We identified drugs as precipitants of ACLF among prospective cohort of patients with ACLF from the Asian Pacific Association of Study of Liver (APASL) ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) database. Drugs were considered precipitants after exclusion of known causes together with a temporal association between exposure and decompensation. Outcome was defined as death from decompensation.
RESULTS: Of the 3,132 patients with ACLF, drugs were implicated as a cause in 329 (10.5%, mean age 47 years, 65% men) and other nondrug causes in 2,803 (89.5%) (group B). Complementary and alternative medications (71.7%) were the commonest insult, followed by combination antituberculosis therapy drugs (27.3%). Alcoholic liver disease (28.6%), cryptogenic liver disease (25.5%), and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) (16.7%) were common causes of underlying liver diseases. Patients with drug-induced ACLF had jaundice (100%), ascites (88%), encephalopathy (46.5%), high Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) (30.2), and Child-Turcotte-Pugh score (12.1). The overall 90-day mortality was higher in drug-induced (46.5%) than in non-drug-induced ACLF (38.8%) (P = 0.007). The Cox regression model identified arterial lactate (P < 0.001) and total bilirubin (P = 0.008) as predictors of mortality.
DISCUSSION: Drugs are important identifiable causes of ACLF in Asia-Pacific countries, predominantly from complementary and alternative medications, followed by antituberculosis drugs. Encephalopathy, bilirubin, blood urea, lactate, and international normalized ratio (INR) predict mortality in drug-induced ACLF.
METHODOLOGY: One thousand two hundred and sixteen prospectively enrolled patients with ACLF (males 98%, mean age 42.5 ± 9.4 years, mean CTP, MELD and AARC scores of 12 ± 1.4, 29.7 ± 7 and 9.8 ± 2 respectively) from the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) database were analysed retrospectively. Patients with or without metabolic risk factors were compared for severity (CTP, MELD, AARC scores) and day 30 and 90 mortality. Information on overweight/obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), hypertension and dyslipidaemia were available in 1028 (85%), 1019 (84%), 1017 (84%) and 965 (79%) patients respectively.
RESULTS: Overall, 392 (32%) patients died at day 30 and 528 (43%) at day 90. Overweight/obesity, T2DM, hypertension and dyslipidaemia were present in 154 (15%), 142 (14%), 66 (7%) and 141 (15%) patients, respectively, with no risk factors in 809 (67%) patients. Patients with overweight/obesity had higher MELD scores (30.6 ± 7.1 vs 29.2 ± 6.9, P = .007) and those with dyslipidaemia had higher AARC scores (10.4 ± 1.2 vs 9.8 ± 2, P = .014). Overweight/obesity was associated with increased day 30 mortality (HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.06-2.24, P = .023). None of other metabolic risk factors, alone or in combination, had any impact on disease severity or mortality. On multivariate analysis, overweight or obesity was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (aHR 1.91, 95% CI 1.41-2.59, P
METHODS: Prospectively collected data of ACLF patients from APASL-ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) was analyzed for 30-day outcomes. The models evaluated at days 0, 4, and 7 of presentation for 30-day mortality were: AARC (model and score), CLIF-C (ACLF score, and OF score), NACSELD-ACLF (model and binary), SOFA, APACHE-II, MELD, MELD-Lactate, and CTP. Evaluation parameters were discrimination (c-indices), calibration [accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and positive/negative predictive values (PPV/NPV)], Akaike/Bayesian Information Criteria (AIC/BIC), Nagelkerke-R2, relative prediction errors, and odds ratios.
RESULTS: Thirty-day survival of the cohort (n = 2864) was 64.9% and was lowest for final-AARC-grade-III (32.8%) ACLF. Performance parameters of all models were best at day 7 than at day 4 or day 0 (p 12 had the lowest 30-day survival (5.7%).
CONCLUSIONS: APASL-ACLF is often a progressive disease, and models assessed up to day 7 of presentation reliably predict 30-day mortality. Day-7 AARC model is a statistically robust tool for classifying risk of death and accurately predicting 30-day outcomes with relatively lower prediction errors. Day-7 AARC score > 12 may be used as a futility criterion in APASL-ACLF patients.
METHODS: Patients with AIH-ACLF without baseline infection/hepatic encephalopathy were identified from APASL ACLF research consortium (AARC) database. Diagnosis of AIH-ACLF was based mainly on histology. Those treated with steroids were assessed for non-response (defined as death or liver transplant at 90 days for present study). Laboratory parameters, AARC, and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores were assessed at baseline and day 3 to identify early non-response. Utility of dynamic SURFASA score [- 6.80 + 1.92*(D0-INR) + 1.94*(∆%3-INR) + 1.64*(∆%3-bilirubin)] was also evaluated. The performance of early predictors was compared with changes in MELD score at 2 weeks.
RESULTS: Fifty-five out of one hundred and sixty-five patients (age-38.2 ± 15.0 years, 67.2% females) with AIH-ACLF [median MELD 24 (IQR: 22-27); median AARC score 7 (6-9)] given oral prednisolone 40 (20-40) mg per day were analyzed. The 90 day transplant-free survival in this cohort was 45.7% with worse outcomes in those with incident infections (56% vs 28.0%, p = 0.03). The AUROC of pre-therapy AARC score [0.842 (95% CI 0.754-0.93)], MELD [0.837 (95% CI 0.733-0.94)] score and SURFASA score [0.795 (95% CI 0.678-0.911)] were as accurate as ∆MELD at 2 weeks [0.770 (95% CI 0.687-0.845), p = 0.526] and better than ∆MELD at 3 days [0.541 (95% CI 0.395, 0.687), p 6, MELD score > 24 with SURFASA score ≥ - 1.2, could identify non-responders at day 3 (concomitant- 75% vs either - 42%, p