METHODS: We assembled 1155 geographical records of yellow fever virus infection in people from 1970 to 2016. We used a Poisson point process boosted regression tree model that explicitly incorporated environmental and biological explanatory covariates, vaccination coverage, and spatial variability in disease reporting rates to predict the relative risk of apparent yellow fever virus infection at a 5 × 5 km resolution across all risk zones (47 countries across the Americas and Africa). We also used the fitted model to predict the receptivity of areas outside at-risk zones to the introduction or reintroduction of yellow fever transmission. By use of previously published estimates of annual national case numbers, we used the model to map subnational variation in incidence of yellow fever across at-risk countries and to estimate the number of cases averted by vaccination worldwide.
FINDINGS: Substantial international and subnational spatial variation exists in relative risk and incidence of yellow fever as well as varied success of vaccination in reducing incidence in several high-risk regions, including Brazil, Cameroon, and Togo. Areas with the highest predicted average annual case numbers include large parts of Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and South Sudan, where vaccination coverage in 2016 was estimated to be substantially less than the recommended threshold to prevent outbreaks. Overall, we estimated that vaccination coverage levels achieved by 2016 avert between 94 336 and 118 500 cases of yellow fever annually within risk zones, on the basis of conservative and optimistic vaccination scenarios. The areas outside at-risk regions with predicted high receptivity to yellow fever transmission (eg, parts of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand) were less extensive than the distribution of the main urban vector, A aegypti, with low receptivity to yellow fever transmission in southern China, where A aegypti is known to occur.
INTERPRETATION: Our results provide the evidence base for targeting vaccination campaigns within risk zones, as well as emphasising their high effectiveness. Our study highlights areas where public health authorities should be most vigilant for potential spread or importation events.
FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
METHOD: Crude annual attack rates (AR) per 100,000 Dutch travelers were calculated during the period 1997 to 2014 by dividing the number of typhoid fever cases by the estimated total number of travelers to a specific country or region. Regions of exposure and possible risk factors were evaluated.
RESULTS: During the study period 607 cases of typhoid fever were reported. Most cases were imported from Asia (60%). Almost half of the cases were ethnically related to typhoid risk regions and 37% were cases visiting friends and relatives. The overall ARs for travelers to all regions declined significantly. Countries with the highest ARs were India (29 per 100,000), Indonesia (8 per 100,000), and Morocco (10 per 100,000). There was a significant decline in ARs among travelers to popular travel destinations such as Morocco, Turkey, and Indonesia. ARs among travelers to intermediate-risk areas according to the Dutch guidelines such as Latin America or Sub-Saharan Africa remained very low, despite the restricted vaccination policy for these areas compared to many other guidelines.
CONCLUSION: The overall AR of typhoid fever among travelers returning to the Netherlands is very low and has declined in the past 20 years. The Dutch vaccination policy not to vaccinate short-term travelers to Latin-America, Sub-Saharan Africa, Thailand and Malaysia seems to be justified, because the ARs for these destinations remain very low. These results suggest that further restriction of the Dutch vaccination policy is justified.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective review of children diagnosed with enteric fever in a tertiary paediatric hospital in Singapore was conducted from January 2006 to January 2012. Patients with positive blood cultures for Salmonella typhi or paratyphi were identified from the microbiology laboratory information system. Data was extracted from their case records.
RESULTS: Of 50 enteric fever cases, 86% were due to Salmonella typhi, with 16.3% being multidrug resistant (MDR) strains. Sixty-two percent of S. typhi isolates were of decreased ciprofloxacin susceptibility (DCS). Five cases were both MDR and DCS. The remaining 14% were Salmonella paratyphi A. There were only 3 indigenous cases. Ninety-four percent had travelled to typhoid-endemic countries, 70.2% to the Indian subcontinent and the rest to Indonesia and Malaysia. All patients infected with MDR strains had travelled to the Indian subcontinent. Anaemia was a significant finding in children with typhoid, as compared to paratyphoid fever (P = 0.04). Although all children were previously well, 14% suffered severe complications including shock, pericardial effusion and enterocolitis. None had typhoid vaccination prior to their travel to developing countries.
CONCLUSION: Enteric fever is largely an imported disease in Singapore and has contributed to significant morbidity in children. The use of typhoid vaccine, as well as education on food and water hygiene to children travelling to developing countries, needs to be emphasised.