METHODS AND FINDINGS: Our approach is based on a parsimonious mathematical model of disease transmission and only requires data collected through routine surveillance and standard case investigations. We apply it to assess the transmissibility of swine-origin influenza A H3N2v-M virus in the US, Nipah virus in Malaysia and Bangladesh, and also present a non-zoonotic example (cholera in the Dominican Republic). Estimation is based on two simple summary statistics, the proportion infected by the natural reservoir among detected cases (G) and among the subset of the first detected cases in each cluster (F). If detection of a case does not affect detection of other cases from the same cluster, we find that R can be estimated by 1-G; otherwise R can be estimated by 1-F when the case detection rate is low. In more general cases, bounds on R can still be derived.
CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a simple approach with limited data requirements that enables robust assessment of the risks posed by emerging zoonoses. We illustrate this by deriving transmissibility estimates for the H3N2v-M virus, an important step in evaluating the possible pandemic threat posed by this virus. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
METHODS: A systematic literature search for studies with the primary aim of using OSN to detect and track a pandemic was conducted. We conducted an electronic literature search for eligible English articles published between 2004 and 2015 using PUBMED, IEEExplore, ACM Digital Library, Google Scholar, and Web of Science. First, the articles were screened on the basis of titles and abstracts. Second, the full texts were reviewed. All included studies were subjected to quality assessment.
RESULT: OSNs have rich information that can be utilized to develop an almost real-time pandemic surveillance system. The outcomes of OSN surveillance systems have demonstrated high correlations with the findings of official surveillance systems. However, the limitation in using OSN to track pandemic is in collecting representative data with sufficient population coverage. This challenge is related to the characteristics of OSN data. The data are dynamic, large-sized, and unstructured, thus requiring advanced algorithms and computational linguistics.
CONCLUSIONS: OSN data contain significant information that can be used to track a pandemic. Different from traditional surveys and clinical reports, in which the data collection process is time consuming at costly rates, OSN data can be collected almost in real time at a cheaper cost. Additionally, the geographical and temporal information can provide exploratory analysis of spatiotemporal dynamics of infectious disease spread. However, on one hand, an OSN-based surveillance system requires comprehensive adoption, enhanced geographical identification system, and advanced algorithms and computational linguistics to eliminate its limitations and challenges. On the other hand, OSN is probably to never replace traditional surveillance, but it can offer complementary data that can work best when integrated with traditional data.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: The evaluation was conducted among key informants in the National Cancer Registry (NCR) and reporting facilities from FebMay 2012 and was based on US CDC guidelines. Representativeness was assessed by matching cancer case in the Health Information System (HIS) and state pathology records with those in NCR. Data quality was measured through case finding and reabstracting of medical records by independent auditors. The reabstracting portion comprised 15 data items. Selfadministered questionnaires were used to assess simplicity and acceptability. Timeliness was measured from date of diagnosis to date of notification received and data dissemination.
RESULTS: Of 4613 cancer cases reported in HIS, 83.3% were matched with cancer registry. In the state pathology centre, 99.8% was notified to registry. Duplication of notification was 3%. Data completeness calculated for 104 samples was 63.4%. Registrars perceived simplicity in coding diagnosis as moderate. Notification process was moderately acceptable. Median duration of interval 1 was 5.7 months.
CONCLUSIONS: The performances of registry's attributes are fairly positive in terms of simplicity, case reporting sensitivity, and predictive value positive. It is moderately acceptable, data completeness and inflexible. The usefulness of registry is the area of concern to achieve registry objectives. Timeliness of reporting is within international standard, whereas timeliness to data dissemination was longer up to 4 years. Integration between existing HIS and national registration department will improve data quality.
METHODS: The study was undertaken in five Latin American (Brazil, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Peru) and five in Asian countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Vietnam). A mixed-methods approach was used which included document analysis, key informant interviews, focus-group discussions, secondary data analysis and consensus building by an international dengue expert meeting organised by the World Health Organization, Special Program for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (WHO-TDR).
RESULTS: Country information on dengue is based on compulsory notification and reporting ("passive surveillance"), with laboratory confirmation (in all participating Latin American countries and some Asian countries) or by using a clinical syndromic definition. Seven countries additionally had sentinel sites with active dengue reporting, some also had virological surveillance. Six had agreed a formal definition of a dengue outbreak separate to seasonal variation in case numbers. Countries collected data on a range of warning signs that may identify outbreaks early, but none had developed a systematic approach to identifying and responding to the early stages of an outbreak. Outbreak response plans varied in quality, particularly regarding the early response. The surge capacity of hospitals with recent dengue outbreaks varied; those that could mobilise additional staff, beds, laboratory support and resources coped best in comparison to those improvising a coping strategy during the outbreak. Hospital outbreak management plans were present in 9/22 participating hospitals in Latin-America and 8/20 participating hospitals in Asia.
CONCLUSIONS: Considerable variation between countries was observed with regard to surveillance, outbreak detection, and response. Through discussion at the expert meeting, suggestions were made for the development of a more standardised approach in the form of a model contingency plan, with agreed outbreak definitions and country-specific risk assessment schemes to initiate early response activities according to the outbreak phase. This would also allow greater cross-country sharing of ideas.
METHODS: We surveyed participants at the 2009 and 2013 Congresses of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Federation of Endocrine Societies by distributing questionnaires to attendees at registration.
RESULTS: Responses were obtained from 268 respondents in 2009 and 163 respondents in 2013. Similar to the high prevalence of low-risk thyroid cancer observed in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, across the Asia-Pacific countries surveyed in 2009 and 2013, 50 to 100% of the respondents from the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, China, Taiwan, Thailand, Hong Kong, Korea, and Sri Lanka reported that more than 50% of the patients had low-risk thyroid cancer on follow-up. Importantly, there was much variation with regards to the perceived availability of investigation and treatment modalities.
CONCLUSION: We found a wide variation in clinicians' perception of availability of diagnostic and therapeutic modalities in the face of a rise in thyroid cancer incidence and thyroid cancer management guidelines that emphasized their importance. The lack of availability of management tools and treatments will prove to be a major barrier to the implementation of thyroid cancer management guidelines in Southeast Asia, and likely in other parts of the world as well.
OBJECTIVES: To design and perform a simple surveillance on OLP patients based on colour-coded topography mouth maps (TMM).
MATERIALS AND METHODS: Three colour-coded TMM were employed: red for OLP in high risk oral mucosal sites, yellow for cases showing improvement and green for asymptomatic lesions at each recall visit. In this preliminary study, these were applied on 30 histologically confirmed OLP individuals attending the Oral Medicine Clinic at the Department of Oral Pathology, Oral Medicine and Periodontology, Faculty of Dentistry, University of Malaya. The sites and extent of OLP lesions were charted on either red, yellow or green TMM based on defined criteria. This surveillance evaluated OLP in relation to patientandapos;s age, race, gender, underlying systemic conditions, oral habits, initial onset of OLP, oral manifestations and presence/absence of clinically suspicious areas.
RESULTS: Study sample comprised 4 (13.3%) Malays, 9 (30.0%) Chinese and 17 (56.7%) Indians. Most OLP patients belong to the green TMM (n= 14, 46.6%) group followed by red (n= 11, 36.7%) and yellow (n= 5, 16.7%) groups. Of the 11 cases with red TMM, rebiopsy was performed on 4 cases but no dysplasia was detected. Any local confounding factors namely periodontal disease or faulty dental restorations were managed accordingly.
CONCLUSIONS: TMM is simple to use and aided the clinicians in terms of time saving and patient management. Hence, follow-up of OLP patients can be carried out more efficiently and appropriately. TMM can be used for surveillance of other oral precancerous lesions and conditions.