METHODS: An agent-based model (ABM) is a relatively new approach that provides a framework for analyzing the heterogeneity of the interactions, along with biological and environmental factors in such complex systems. The objective of this research is to design and develop an ABM that uses Geospatial Information System (GIS) capabilities, biological behaviors of vectors and reservoir hosts, and an improved Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemic model to explore the spread of ZCL. Various scenarios were implemented to analyze the future ZCL spreads in different parts of Maraveh Tappeh County, in the northeast region of Golestan Province in northeastern Iran, with alternative socio-ecological conditions.
RESULTS: The results confirmed that the spread of the disease arises principally in the desert, low altitude areas, and riverside population centers. The outcomes also showed that the restricting movement of humans reduces the severity of the transmission. Moreover, the spread of ZCL has a particular temporal pattern, since the most prevalent cases occurred in the fall. The evaluation test also showed the similarity between the results and the reported spatiotemporal trends.
CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the capability and efficiency of ABM to model and predict the spread of ZCL. The results of the presented approach can be considered as a guide for public health management and controlling the vector population .
METHODS: We isolated Onchocerca specimens from bearded pigs and examined their morphology. For comparative material, we collected fresh specimens of O. d. dewittei Bain, Ramachandran, Petter & Mak, 1977 from banded pigs (S. scrofa vittatus Boie) in Peninsular Malaysia. Partial sequences of three different genes (two mitochondrial genes, cox1 and 12S rRNA, and one nuclear ITS region) of these filarioids were analysed. By multi-locus sequence analyses based on six genes (16S rDNA, ftsZ, dnaA, coxA, fbpA and gatB) of Wolbachia, we determined the supergroups in the specimens from bearded pigs and those of O. d. dewittei.
RESULTS: Onchocerca borneensis Uni, Mat Udin & Takaoka n. sp. is described on the basis of morphological characteristics and its genetic divergence from congeners. Molecular characteristics of the new species revealed its close evolutionary relationship with O. d. dewittei. Calculated p-distance for the cox1 gene sequences between O. borneensis n. sp. and O. d. dewittei was 5.9%, while that between O. d. dewittei and O. d. japonica was 7.6%. No intraspecific genetic variation was found for the new species. Wolbachia strains identified in the new species and O. d. dewittei belonged to supergroup C and are closely related.
CONCLUSIONS: Our molecular analyses of filarioids from Asian suids indicate that the new species is sister to O. d. dewittei. On the basis of its morphological and molecular characteristics, we propose to elevate O. d. japonica to species level as O. japonica Uni, Bain & Takaoka, 2001. Coevolutionary relationships exist between the Wolbachia strains and their filarial hosts in Borneo and Peninsular Malaysia.
METHODS: We did an environmentally stratified, population-based, cross-sectional survey across households in the Kudat, Kota Marudu, Pitas, and Ranau districts in northern Sabah, Malaysia, encompassing a range of ecologies. Using blood samples, the transmission intensity of P knowlesi and other malaria species was measured by specific antibody prevalence and infection detected using molecular methods. Proportions and configurations of land types were extracted from maps derived from satellite images; a data-mining approach was used to select variables. A Bayesian hierarchical model for P knowlesi seropositivity was developed, incorporating questionnaire data about individual and household-level risk factors with selected landscape factors.
FINDINGS: Between Sept 17, 2015, and Dec 12, 2015, 10 100 individuals with a median age of 25 years (range 3 months to 105 years) were sampled from 2849 households in 180 villages. 5·1% (95% CI 4·8-5·4) were seropositive for P knowlesi, and marked historical decreases were observed in the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. Nine Plasmodium spp infections were detected. Age, male sex, contact with macaques, forest use, and raised house construction were positively associated with P knowlesi exposure, whereas residing at higher geographical elevations and use of insecticide were protective. Agricultural and forest variables, such as proportions and fragmentation of land cover types, predicted exposure at different spatial scales from households.
INTERPRETATION: Although few infections were detected, P knowlesi exposure was observed in all demographic groups and was associated with occupational factors. Results suggest that agricultural expansion and forest fragmentation affect P knowlesi exposure, supporting linkages between land use change and P knowlesi transmission.
FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, Natural Environment Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, and Biotechnology and Biosciences Research Council.