METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The Shewhart method and Endemic Channel were used to identify alarm variables that may predict dengue outbreaks. Five country datasets were compiled by epidemiological week over the years 2007-2013. These data were split between the years 2007-2011 (historic period) and 2012-2013 (evaluation period). Associations between alarm/ outbreak variables were analysed using logistic regression during the historic period while alarm and outbreak signals were captured during the evaluation period. These signals were combined to form alarm/ outbreak periods, where 2 signals were equal to 1 period. Alarm periods were quantified and used to predict subsequent outbreak periods. Across Mexico and Dominican Republic, an increase in probable cases predicted outbreaks of hospitalised cases with sensitivities and positive predictive values (PPV) of 93%/ 83% and 97%/ 86% respectively, at a lag of 1-12 weeks. An increase in mean temperature ably predicted outbreaks of hospitalised cases in Mexico and Brazil, with sensitivities and PPVs of 79%/ 73% and 81%/ 46% respectively, also at a lag of 1-12 weeks. Mean age was predictive of hospitalised cases at sensitivities and PPVs of 72%/ 74% and 96%/ 45% in Mexico and Malaysia respectively, at a lag of 4-16 weeks.

METHODS AND FINDINGS: We estimated the economic and disease burden of dengue in 12 countries in SEA: Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, East-Timor, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Viet Nam. We obtained reported cases from multiple sources--surveillance data, World Health Organization (WHO), and published studies--and adjusted for underreporting using expansion factors from previous literature. We obtained unit costs per episode through a systematic literature review, and completed missing data using linear regressions. We excluded costs such as prevention and vector control, and long-term sequelae of dengue. Over the decade of 2001-2010, we obtained an annual average of 2.9 million (m) dengue episodes and 5,906 deaths. The annual economic burden (with 95% certainty levels) was US$950m (US$610m-US$1,384m) or about US$1.65 (US$1.06-US$2.41) per capita. The annual number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), based on the original 1994 definition, was 214,000 (120,000-299,000), which is equivalent to 372 (210-520) DALYs per million inhabitants.

RESULTS: Mosquitoes were collected from a total of 15 sites using gravid traps and a backpack aspirator around Kampong Puruh Karu, Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo, where sylvatic DENV spillover has been documented. A total of 2447 mosquitoes comprising 10 genera and 4 species of Aedes, were collected over the three years, 2013, 2014 and 2016, in the three major land cover types in the area, homestead, agriculture and forest. Mosquitoes were identified morphologically, pooled by species and gender, homogenized, and subject to DNA barcoding of each Aedes species and to arbovirus screening. As predicted, Ae. niveus was found almost exclusively in forests whereas Ae. albopictus was collected in all land cover types. Aedes albopictus was significantly (P = 0.04) more abundant in agricultural fields than forests. Sylvatic DENV was not detected in any Aedes mosquito pools, however genomes of 14 viruses were detected using next generation sequencing.

METHODS: A retrospective analysis of dengue patients admitted to a tertiary care teaching hospital during the period of six years (2008 - 2013) was performed. Patient's demographics, clinical and laboratory findings were recorded via structured data collection form. Patients were categorized into dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). Appropriate statistical methods were used to compare these two groups in order to determine difference in clinico-laboratory characteristics and to identify independent risk factors of DHF.