OBJECTIVES: We assessed the health and economic impact of the 10-valent pneumococcal nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PCV-10) compared with the current 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-13) recommended for Hong Kong in 2011, providing new elements to be considered by public health authorities in the future decision-making process for pneumococcal vaccines in this country.
METHODS: An analytical model was used to estimate the annual economic and health outcomes of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), community-acquired pneumonia, and acute otitis media (AOM), including nontypeable H. influenzae-related AOM, for a birth cohort in Hong Kong from the payer perspective with a 10-year horizon. Clinical impact including morbidity-mortality, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), incremental costs, and cost-effectiveness comparing PCV-10 and PCV-13 were estimated. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses by using alternate scenarios were performed.
RESULTS: Model projections indicate that PCV-13 and PCV-10 have approximately equivalent impact on the prevention of deaths caused by IPD and pneumonia. PCV-13 is projected to prevent 6 additional cases of IPD, whereas PCV-10 is projected to prevent 13,229 additional AOM cases and 101 additional QALYs. For the base case, PCV-10 vaccination is estimated to save 44.6 million Hong Kong dollars (34.1 million Hong Kong dollars discounted). Sensitivity analysis indicated that PCV-10 would generate more QALYs and save costs as compared with PCV-13.
CONCLUSIONS: Universal infant vaccination with new available pneumococcal vaccines is expected to generate a significant additional impact on reducing the burden of pneumococcal diseases in Hong Kong. PCV-10 vaccination would be potentially a cost-saving strategy compared with PCV-13 vaccination, generating better cost offsets and higher QALY gains.
METHODS: The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.
FINDINGS: Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]).
INTERPRETATION: The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.
FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
METHODS: We estimated mortality using natural history models for acute hepatitis infections and GBD's cause-of-death ensemble model for cirrhosis and liver cancer. We used meta-regression to estimate total cirrhosis and total liver cancer prevalence, as well as the proportion of cirrhosis and liver cancer attributable to each cause. We then estimated cause-specific prevalence as the product of the total prevalence and the proportion attributable to a specific cause. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs).
FINDINGS: Between 1990 and 2013, global viral hepatitis deaths increased from 0·89 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·86-0·94) to 1·45 million (1·38-1·54); YLLs from 31·0 million (29·6-32·6) to 41·6 million (39·1-44·7); YLDs from 0·65 million (0·45-0·89) to 0·87 million (0·61-1·18); and DALYs from 31·7 million (30·2-33·3) to 42·5 million (39·9-45·6). In 2013, viral hepatitis was the seventh (95% UI seventh to eighth) leading cause of death worldwide, compared with tenth (tenth to 12th) in 1990.
INTERPRETATION: Viral hepatitis is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Unlike most communicable diseases, the absolute burden and relative rank of viral hepatitis increased between 1990 and 2013. The enormous health loss attributable to viral hepatitis, and the availability of effective vaccines and treatments, suggests an important opportunity to improve public health.
FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
METHODS: This study was conducted with GBD 2019 analytical and modelling strategies. Primary prevalence data came from claims from three countries and from hospital inpatient encounters from 45 locations. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR version 2.1, was used to estimate the age-specific, location-specific, and year-specific prevalence of benign prostatic hyperplasia. Age-standardised prevalence was calculated by the direct method using the GBD reference population. Years lived with disability (YLDs) due to benign prostatic hyperplasia were estimated by multiplying the disability weight by the symptomatic proportion of the prevalence of benign prostatic hyperplasia. Because we did not estimate years of life lost associated with benign prostatic hyperplasia, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) equalled YLDs. The final estimates were compared across Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles. The 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were estimated as the 25th and 975th of 1000 ordered draws from a bootstrap distribution.
FINDINGS: Globally, there were 94·0 million (95% UI 73·2 to 118) prevalent cases of benign prostatic hyperplasia in 2019, compared with 51·1 million (43·1 to 69·3) cases in 2000. The age-standardised prevalence of benign prostatic hyperplasia was 2480 (1940 to 3090) per 100 000 people. Although the global number of prevalent cases increased by 70·5% (68·6 to 72·7) between 2000 and 2019, the global age-standardised prevalence remained stable (-0·770% [-1·56 to 0·0912]). The age-standardised prevalence in 2019 ranged from 6480 (5130 to 8080) per 100 000 in eastern Europe to 987 (732 to 1320) per 100 000 in north Africa and the Middle East. All five SDI quintiles observed an increase in the absolute DALY burden between 2000 and 2019. The most rapid increases in the absolute DALY burden were seen in the middle SDI quintile (94·7% [91·8 to 97·6]), the low-middle SDI quintile (77·3% [74·1 to 81·2]), and the low SDI quintile (77·7% [72·9 to 83·2]). Between 2000 and 2019, age-standardised DALY rates changed less, but the three lower SDI quintiles (low, low-middle, and middle) saw small increases, and the two higher SDI quintiles (high and high-middle SDI) saw small decreases.
INTERPRETATION: The absolute burden of benign prostatic hyperplasia is rising at an alarming rate in most of the world, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries that are currently undergoing rapid demographic and epidemiological changes. As more people are living longer worldwide, the absolute burden of benign prostatic hyperplasia is expected to continue to rise in the coming years, highlighting the importance of monitoring and planning for future health system strain.
FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
TRANSLATION: For the Amharic translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
METHODS: A pragmatic healthcentre-based cluster randomised controlled trial-within trial on 151 post stroke patients from 10 public primary care facilities in Peninsular Malaysia was conducted to evaluate QALY of patients managed with iCaPPS© (n = 86) vs conventional care (n = 65) for 6 months. Costs from societal perspective were calculated, using combination of top down and activity-based costing methods. The 5-level EQ5D (EQ-5D-5 L) was used to calculate health state utility scores. Cost per QALY and incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) were determined. Differences within groups were determined using Mann-Whitney tests.
RESULTS: Total costs for 6 months treatment with iCaPPS© was MYR790.34, while conventional care cost MYR527.22. Median QALY for iCaPPS© was 0.55 (0,1.65) compared to conventional care 0.32 (0, 0.73) (z = - 0.21, p = 0.84). Cost per QALY for iCaPPS© was MYR1436.98, conventional care was MYR1647.56. The ICER was MYR1144.00, equivalent to 3.7% of per capita GDP (2012 prices).
CONCLUSIONS: Management of post stroke patients in the community using iCaPPS© costs less per QALY compared to current conventional care and is very cost effective.
TRIAL REGISTRATION: Trial Registration number ACTRN12616001322426. Registered 21 September 2016. (Retrospectively registered).
METHODS: Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 were analyzed, adopting Sawyer's broad definition of adolescence encompassing ages 10 to 24. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were used to assess temporal trends.
RESULTS: Globally, from 1990 to 2019, there was a decrease in the ASIR of depression in adolescents (EAPC = -0.23). Notably, this decrease was more pronounced in female adolescents compared to their male counterparts (EAPC = -0.12 and - 0.29, respectively). Conversely, high Sociodemographic Index (SDI) regions experienced a significant increase in the ASIR of depression among adolescents (EAPC = 0.87). Furthermore, it is worth mentioning that individuals aged 20-24 exhibited the highest incidence rate for depression followed by those aged 15-19 and then those aged 10-14. The largest increases in the ASIRs of depression occurred in High-income North America (EAPC = 1.19) and Malaysia (EAPC = 2.4), respectively.
LIMITATIONS: Mathematical models were used to reconstruct and adjust data of different qualities, which might have introduced bias.
CONCLUSIONS: The global burden of disease for depression among adolescents aged 10-24 years declined from 1990 to 2019. Special attention must be paid to older adolescents and areas with higher SDIs.
METHODS: Systematic review and NMA of randomised controlled trials were performed, and the most suitable CPA was chosen based on efficacy and the most favourable risk-benefit profile. The economic benefits of CPA alone, 3 yearly SC alone, and a combination of CPA and SC were determined using the cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) in the Malaysian health-care perspective. Outcomes were reported as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in 2018 US Dollars ($) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), and life-years (LYs) gained.
RESULTS: According to NMA, the risk-benefit profile favours the use of aspirin at very-low-dose (ASAVLD, ≤ 100 mg/day) for secondary prevention in individuals with previous ACAs. Celecoxib is the most effective CPA but the cardiovascular adverse events are of concern. According to CEA, the combination strategy (ASAVLD with 3-yearly SC) was cost-saving and dominates its competitors as the best buy option. The probability of being cost-effective for ASAVLD alone, 3-yearly SC alone, and combination strategy were 22%, 26%, and 53%, respectively. Extending the SC interval to five years in combination strategy was more cost-effective when compared to 3-yearly SC alone (ICER of $484/LY gain and $1875/QALY). However, extending to ten years in combination strategy was not cost-effective.
CONCLUSION: ASAVLD combined with 3-yearly SC in individuals with ACAs may be a cost-effective strategy for CRC prevention. An extension of SC intervals to five years can be considered in resource-limited countries.
METHODS: A cost-utility analysis using a lifetime Markov model was conducted among Thai patients with NAFLD, from a societal perspective. Pioglitazone, vitamin E, a weight reduction program, and usual care were investigated, with the outcomes of interest being the number of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cases, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), lifetime costs, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.
RESULTS: When compared with usual care, a weight reduction program can prevent cirrhosis and HCC cases by 13.91% (95% credible interval [CrI] 0.97, 20.59) and 2.12% (95% CrI 0.43, 4.56), respectively; pioglitazone can prevent cirrhosis and HCC cases by 9.30% (95% CrI -2.52, 15.24) and 1.42% (95% CrI -0.18, 3.74), respectively; and vitamin E can prevent cirrhosis and HCC cases by 7.32% (95% CrI -4.64, 15.56) and 1.12% (95% CrI -0.81, 3.44), respectively. Estimated incremental life expectancy and incremental QALYs for all treatment options compared with usual care were approximately 0.06 years and 0.07 QALYs, respectively. The lifetime costs of both a weight reduction program and pioglitazone were less than usual care, while vitamin E was $3050 (95% CrI 2354, 3650). The weight reduction program dominated all other treatment options. The probability of being cost-effective in Thailand's willingness-to-pay threshold ($4546/QALY gained) was 76% for the weight reduction program, 22% for pioglitazone, 2% for usual care, and 0% for vitamin E.
CONCLUSIONS: A weight reduction program can prevent cirrhosis and HCC occurrences, and dominates all other treatment options. Pioglitazone and vitamin E demonstrated a trend towards decreasing the number of cirrhosis and HCC cases.