OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study is to provide advanced surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission that account for speed, acceleration, jerk, persistence, and weekly shifts, to better understand country risk for explosive growth and those countries who are managing the pandemic successfully. Existing surveillance coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until an effective vaccine is developed. We provide novel indicators to measure disease transmission.
METHODS: Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 330 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in East Asia and the Pacific as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R.
RESULTS: The standard surveillance metrics for Indonesia, the Philippines, and Myanmar were concerning as they had the largest new caseloads at 4301, 2588, and 1387, respectively. When looking at the acceleration of new COVID-19 infections, we found that French Polynesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines had rates at 3.17, 0.22, and 0.06 per 100,000. These three countries also ranked highest in terms of jerk at 15.45, 0.10, and 0.04, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: Two of the most populous countries in East Asia and the Pacific, Indonesia and the Philippines, have alarming surveillance metrics. These two countries rank highest in new infections in the region. The highest rates of speed, acceleration, and positive upwards jerk belong to French Polynesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, and may result in explosive growth. While all countries in East Asia and the Pacific need to be cautious about reopening their countries since outbreaks are likely to occur in the second wave of COVID-19, the country of greatest concern is the Philippines. Based on standard and enhanced surveillance, the Philippines has not gained control of the COVID-19 epidemic, which is particularly troubling because the country ranks 4th in population in the region. Without extreme and rigid social distancing, quarantines, hygiene, and masking to reverse trends, the Philippines will remain on the global top 5 list of worst COVID-19 outbreaks resulting in high morbidity and mortality. The second wave will only exacerbate existing conditions and increase COVID-19 transmissions.
METHODS: Data of all patients diagnosed with NPC over a 5-year period from January 2015 to December 2019 inclusive were collected from the NPC registry of 3 main hospitals in Sabah. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) for different genders, ethnicities, and districts of origin were calculated.
RESULTS: 215 NPC patients were identified with a mean age at diagnosis of 49 (range 9-82). The ASR of NPC was 7.9/100,000 where the average age-adjusted male-to-female ratio was 2.4. The highest ASR was found in Dusun ethnicity in both male (3.19/100,000) and female (1.69/100,000) individuals, followed by Chinese (both genders), and Kadazan (for male individuals) and Bajau (for female individuals). The highest ASR was found in patients originating from Sandakan, Kota Kinabalu, Keningau, and Tawau.
CONCLUSION: This is the first report on the incidence of NPC in Sabah, Borneo. The data suggest high ASRs among the population, especially in male Dusun and Chinese ethnic groups. Further research looking into NPC in this state, especially on risk factors and ways to improve diagnosis and prevention among the population, is recommended.