METHODS: This study evaluated the cost effectiveness and impact of dengue vaccination in Malaysia from both provider and societal perspectives using a dynamic transmission mathematical model. The model incorporated sensitivity analyses, Malaysia-specific data, evidence from recent phase III studies and pooled efficacy and long-term safety data to refine the estimates from previous published studies. Unit costs were valued in $US, year 2013 values.
RESULTS: Six vaccination programmes employing a three-dose schedule were identified as the most likely programmes to be implemented. In all programmes, vaccination produced positive benefits expressed as reductions in dengue cases, dengue-related deaths, life-years lost, disability-adjusted life-years and dengue treatment costs. Instead of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), we evaluated the cost effectiveness of the programmes by calculating the threshold prices for a highly cost-effective strategy [ICER <1 × gross domestic product (GDP) per capita] and a cost-effective strategy (ICER between 1 and 3 × GDP per capita). We found that vaccination may be cost effective up to a price of $US32.39 for programme 6 (highly cost effective up to $US14.15) and up to a price of $US100.59 for programme 1 (highly cost effective up to $US47.96) from the provider perspective. The cost-effectiveness analysis is sensitive to under-reporting, vaccine protection duration and model time horizon.
CONCLUSION: Routine vaccination for a population aged 13 years with a catch-up cohort aged 14-30 years in targeted hotspot areas appears to be the best-value strategy among those investigated. Dengue vaccination is a potentially good investment if the purchaser can negotiate a price at or below the cost-effective threshold price.
Methods: Three SEIR models were developed using the R programming software ODIN interface based on COVID-19 case data from 1 September 2020 to 29 March 2021. The models were validated and subsequently used to provide forecasts of daily cases from 14 October 2020 to 29 March 2021 based on three movement control phases.
Results: We found that the R values had reduced by 59.1% from an initial high of 2.2 during the Nationwide Recovery Movement Control Order (RMCO) to 0.9 during the Movement Control Order (MCO) and Conditional MCO (CMCO) phases. In addition, the observed cumulative and daily highest cases were much lower compared to the forecast cumulative and daily highest cases at 64.4% to 98.9% and 68.8% to 99.8%, respectively.
Conclusion: We conclude that the movement control measures were able to progressively reduce the R values during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, more stringent movement control measures such as the MCO and CMCO were effective in reducing the R values and case numbers further during the third wave of COVID-19 outbreak in Malaysia due to their higher stringency levels compared to the Nationwide RMCO.
METHODS: A self-administered validated questionnaire was used to obtain data from the nationally representative samples of school-going adolescents aged 11-19 years in Malaysia. Prevalence rates were computed and chi-squared tests and multiple logistic regression were conducted.
RESULTS: Of the participants, 23.3% reported exposure to SHS at least once in the car of their parents/guardians during the last 7 days before the survey. The prevalence and likelihood of SHS exposure were significantly higher in Malays, descendants of natives of Sabah and Sarawak, schools in rural areas, females, and current smokers. However, age group and knowledge on the harmful effects of SHS were not significant after adjusting for confounding effects.
CONCLUSIONS: A substantial proportion of school-going adolescents were exposed to secondhand smoke in the car of their parents/guardians. This highlights the need for effective tobacco control measures to include health promotion and smoke-free car regulations to be introduced to prevent severe health hazards and to reduce smoking initiation among non-smoking adolescents.
METHODS: The residential addresses of 3054 notified CHIKV cases in 2009-2010 were georeferenced onto a base map of Sarawak with spatial data of rivers and roads using R software. The spatiotemporal spread was determined and clusters were detected using the space-time scan statistic with SaTScan.
RESULTS: Overall CHIKV incidence was 127 per 100 000 population (range, 0-1125 within districts). The average speed of spread was 70.1 km/wk, with a peak of 228 cases/wk and the basic reproduction number (R0) was 3.1. The highest age-specific incidence rate was 228 per 100 000 in adults aged 50-54 y. Significantly more cases (79.4%) lived in rural areas compared with the general population (46.2%, p<0.0001). Five CHIKV clusters were detected. Likely spread was mostly by road, but a fifth of rural cases were spread by river travel.
CONCLUSIONS: CHIKV initially spread quickly in rural areas mainly via roads, with lesser involvement of urban areas. Delayed spread occurred via river networks to more isolated areas in the rural interior. Understanding the patterns and timings of arboviral outbreak spread may allow targeted vector control measures at key transport hubs or in large transport vehicles.
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The Shewhart method and Endemic Channel were used to identify alarm variables that may predict dengue outbreaks. Five country datasets were compiled by epidemiological week over the years 2007-2013. These data were split between the years 2007-2011 (historic period) and 2012-2013 (evaluation period). Associations between alarm/ outbreak variables were analysed using logistic regression during the historic period while alarm and outbreak signals were captured during the evaluation period. These signals were combined to form alarm/ outbreak periods, where 2 signals were equal to 1 period. Alarm periods were quantified and used to predict subsequent outbreak periods. Across Mexico and Dominican Republic, an increase in probable cases predicted outbreaks of hospitalised cases with sensitivities and positive predictive values (PPV) of 93%/ 83% and 97%/ 86% respectively, at a lag of 1-12 weeks. An increase in mean temperature ably predicted outbreaks of hospitalised cases in Mexico and Brazil, with sensitivities and PPVs of 79%/ 73% and 81%/ 46% respectively, also at a lag of 1-12 weeks. Mean age was predictive of hospitalised cases at sensitivities and PPVs of 72%/ 74% and 96%/ 45% in Mexico and Malaysia respectively, at a lag of 4-16 weeks.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: An increase in probable cases was predictive of outbreaks, while meteorological variables, particularly mean temperature, demonstrated predictive potential in some countries, but not all. While it is difficult to define uniform variables applicable in every country context, the use of probable cases and meteorological variables in tailored early warning systems could be used to highlight the occurrence of dengue outbreaks or indicate increased risk of dengue transmission.
METHODS: SEIRV models were developed and validated using COVID-19 case and vaccination data from the Ministry of Health, Malaysia, from June 21, 2021 to July 21, 2021 to generate forecasts of COVID-19 cases from July 22, 2021 to December 31, 2021. Three scenarios were examined to measure the effects of vaccination on COVID-19 case trends. Scenarios 1 and 2 represented the trends taking into account the earliest and latest possible times of achieving full vaccination for 80% of the adult population by October 31, 2021 and December 31, 2021, respectively. Scenario 3 described a scenario without vaccination for comparison.
RESULTS: In scenario 1, forecasted cases peaked on August 28, 2021, which was close to the peak of observed cases on August 26, 2021. The observed peak was 20.27% higher than in scenario 1 and 10.37% lower than in scenario 2. The cumulative observed cases from July 22, 2021 to December 31, 2021 were 13.29% higher than in scenario 1 and 55.19% lower than in scenario 2. The daily COVID-19 case trends closely mirrored the forecast of COVID-19 cases in scenario 1 (best-case scenario).
CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrated that COVID-19 vaccination reduced COVID-19 case trends during the Delta outbreak. The compartmental models developed assisted in the management and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia.
METHODS: This study analyzed dengue cases from January 2014 to December 2021 and COVID-19 confirmed cases from January 2020 to December 2021 which was divided into the pre (2014 to 2019) and during COVID-19 pandemic (2020 to 2021) phases. The average annual dengue case incidence for geographical and demographic subgroups were calculated and compared between the pre and during the COVID-19 pandemic phases. In addition, Spearman rank correlation was performed to determine the correlation between weekly dengue and COVID-19 cases during the COVID-19 pandemic phase.
RESULTS: Dengue trends in Malaysia showed a 4-year cyclical trend with dengue case incidence peaking in 2015 and 2019 and subsequently decreasing in the following years. Reductions of 44.0% in average dengue cases during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic phase was observed at the national level. Higher dengue cases were reported among males, individuals aged 20-34 years, and Malaysians across both phases. Weekly dengue cases were significantly correlated (ρ = -0.901) with COVID-19 cases during the COVID-19 pandemic.
CONCLUSION: There was a reduction in dengue incidence during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic phase. Significant reductions were observed across all demographic groups except for the older population (>75 years) across the two phases.
METHODS: Data was sourced from the GitHub repository and the Ministry of Health's official COVID-19 website. The study period was from the beginning of the outbreak in Malaysia, which began during Epidemiological Week (Ep Wk) 4 in 2020, to the last Ep Wk 18 in 2022. Data were aggregated by Ep Wk and analyzed in terms of COVID-19 cases, deaths, ICU admissions, ventilator requirements, testing, incidence rate, death rate, case fatality rate (CFR) and test positivity rate by years (2020 and 2022) and for each outbreak of COVID-19.
RESULTS: A total of 4,456,736 cases, 35,579 deaths and 58,906,954 COVID-19 tests were reported for the period from 2020 to 2022. The COVID-19 incidence rate, death rate, CFR and test positivity rate were reported at 1.085 and 0.009 per 1,000 populations, 0.80 and 7.57%, respectively, for the period from 2020 to 2022. Higher cases, deaths, testing, incidence/death rate, CFR and test positivity rates were reported in 2021 and during the Delta outbreak. This is evident by the highest number of COVID-19 cases, ICU admissions, ventilatory requirements and deaths observed during the Delta outbreak.
CONCLUSION: The Delta outbreak was the most severe compared to other outbreaks in Malaysia's study period. In addition, this study provides evidence that outbreaks of COVID-19, which are caused by highly virulent and transmissible variants, tend to be more severe and devastating if these outbreaks are not controlled early on. Therefore, close monitoring of key epidemiological indicators, as reported in this study, is essential in the control and management of future COVID-19 outbreaks in Malaysia.