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  1. Shepon A, Henriksson PJG, Wu T
    Front Nutr, 2018;5:104.
    PMID: 30456214 DOI: 10.3389/fnut.2018.00104
    The industrialized world has entered a new era of widespread automation, and although this may create long-term gains in economic productivity and wealth accumulation, many professions are expected to disappear during the ensuing shift, leading to potentially significant disruptions in labor markets and associated socioeconomic difficulties. Food production, like many other industrial sectors, has also undergone a century of mechanization, having moved toward increasingly large-scale monoculture production-especially in developed economies-with higher yields but detrimental environmental impacts on a global scale. Certain characteristics of the food sector and its products cast doubts on whether future automation will influence it in the same ways as in other sectors. We conceptualize a model of future food production within the socioeconomic conditions created by widespread automation. We ideate that despite immediate shocks to the economy, in the long run higher productivity can free up human activity to be channeled toward more interactive, skill-intensive food production systems, where communal efforts can reduce industrial reliance, diversify farming, and reconnect people to the biosphere-a realization of human well-being that resembles the classical philosophical ideal of Eudaimonia. We explore food production concepts, such as communal gardens and polyculture, and the economic conditions and institutions needed to underwrite them [e.g., a universal basic income (UBI)]. However, arguments can be raised as to why social-ecological systems would benefit from more labor-intensive food production. In this paper we: (1) discuss the current state of the food system and the need to reform it in light of its environmental and social impacts; (2) present automation as a lever that could move society toward more sustainable food production; (3) highlight the beneficial attributes of a Eudaimonian model; and (4) discuss the potential challenges to its implementation. Our purpose is to highlight a possible outcome that future research will need to refine and expand based on evidence and successful case studies. The ultimate aim is to promote a food system that can provide food security while staying within the safe operating space of planetary boundaries, produce more nutritious diets, enhance social capital, and reconnect communities with the biosphere.
  2. Troell M, Jonell M, Henriksson PJG
    Nat Ecol Evol, 2017 09;1(9):1224-1225.
    PMID: 29046558 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-017-0304-6
  3. Henriksson PJG, Belton B, Jahan KM, Rico A
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2018 03 20;115(12):2958-2963.
    PMID: 29507224 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1716530115
    Food production is a major driver of global environmental change and the overshoot of planetary sustainability boundaries. Greater affluence in developing nations and human population growth are also increasing demand for all foods, and for animal proteins in particular. Consequently, a growing body of literature calls for the sustainable intensification of food production, broadly defined as "producing more using less". Most assessments of the potential for sustainable intensification rely on only one or two indicators, meaning that ecological trade-offs among impact categories that occur as production intensifies may remain unaccounted for. The present study addresses this limitation using life cycle assessment (LCA) to quantify six local and global environmental consequences of intensifying aquaculture production in Bangladesh. Production data are from a unique survey of 2,678 farms, and results show multidirectional associations between the intensification of aquaculture production and its environmental impacts. Intensification (measured in material and economic output per unit primary area farmed) is positively correlated with acidification, eutrophication, and ecotoxicological impacts in aquatic ecosystems; negatively correlated with freshwater consumption; and indifferent with regard to global warming and land occupation. As production intensifies, the geographical locations of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, acidifying emissions, freshwater consumption, and land occupation shift from the immediate vicinity of the farm to more geographically dispersed telecoupled locations across the globe. Simple changes in fish farming technology and management practices that could help make the global transition to more intensive forms of aquaculture be more sustainable are identified.
  4. Bergman K, Henriksson PJG, Hornborg S, Troell M, Borthwick L, Jonell M, et al.
    Environ Sci Technol, 2020 12 15;54(24):16062-16070.
    PMID: 33251804 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.0c01100
    Seafood is seen as promising for more sustainable diets. The increasing production in land-based closed Recirculating Aquaculture Systems (RASs) has overcome many local environmental challenges with traditional open net-pen systems such as eutrophication. The energy needed to maintain suitable water quality, with associated emissions, has however been seen as challenging from a global perspective. This study uses Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to investigate the environmental performance and improvement potentials of a commercial RAS farm of tilapia and Clarias in Sweden. The environmental impact categories and indicators considered were freshwater eutrophication, climate change, energy demand, land use, and dependency on animal-source feed inputs per kg of fillet. We found that feed production contributed most to all environmental impacts (between 67 and 98%) except for energy demand for tilapia, contradicting previous findings that farm-level energy use is a driver of environmental pressures. The main improvement potentials include improved by-product utilization and use of a larger proportion of plant-based feed ingredients. Together with further smaller improvement potential identified, this suggests that RASs may play a more important role in a future, environmentally sustainable food system.
  5. Nhu TT, Schaubroeck T, Henriksson PJG, Bosma R, Sorgeloos P, Dewulf J
    Environ Pollut, 2016 Dec;219:156-165.
    PMID: 27814531 DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2016.10.006
    Pangasius production in Vietnam is widely known as a success story in aquaculture, the fastest growing global food system because of its tremendous expansion by volume, value and the number of international markets to which Pangasius has been exported in recent years. While certification schemes are becoming significant features of international fish trade and marketing, an increasing number of Pangasius producers have followed at least one of the certification schemes recognised by international markets to incorporate environmental and social sustainability practices in aquaculture, typically the Pangasius Aquaculture Dialogue (PAD) scheme certified by the Aquaculture Stewardship Council (ASC). An assessment of the environmental benefit of applying certification schemes on Pangasius production, however, is still needed. This article compared the environmental impact of ASC-certified versus non-ASC certified intensive Pangasius aquaculture, using a statistically supported LCA. We focused on both resource-related (water, land and total resources) and emissions-related (global warming, acidification, freshwater and marine eutrophication) categories. The ASC certification scheme was shown to be a good approach for determining adequate environmental sustainability, especially concerning emissions-related categories, in Pangasius production. However, the non-ASC certified farms, due to the large spread, the impact (e.g., water resources and freshwater eutrophication) was possibly lower for a certain farm. However, this result was not generally prominent. Further improvements in intensive Pangasius production to inspire certification schemes are proposed, e.g., making the implementation of certification schemes more affordable, well-oriented and facilitated; reducing consumed feed amounts and of the incorporated share in fishmeal, especially domestic fishmeal, etc. However, their implementation should be vetted with key stakeholders to assess their feasibility.
  6. Søgaard Jørgensen P, Folke C, Henriksson PJG, Malmros K, Troell M, Zorzet A, et al.
    Trends Ecol Evol, 2020 Jun;35(6):484-494.
    PMID: 32396815 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2020.01.011
    Development of new biocides has dominated human responses to evolution of antibiotic and pesticide resistance. Increasing and uniform biocide use, the spread of resistance genes, and the lack of new classes of compounds indicate the importance of navigating toward more sustainable coevolutionary dynamics between human culture and species that evolve resistance. To inform this challenge, we introduce the concept of coevolutionary governance and propose three priorities for its implementation: (i) new norms and mental models for lowering use, (ii) diversifying practices to reduce directional selection, and (iii) investment in collective action institutions to govern connectivity. We highlight the availability of solutions that facilitate broader sustainable development, which for antibiotic resistance include improved sanitation and hygiene, strong health systems, and decreased meat consumption.
  7. Mendoza Beltran A, Prado V, Font Vivanco D, Henriksson PJG, Guinée JB, Heijungs R
    Environ Sci Technol, 2018 02 20;52(4):2152-2161.
    PMID: 29406730 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.7b06365
    Interpretation of comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) results can be challenging in the presence of uncertainty. To aid in interpreting such results under the goal of any comparative LCA, we aim to provide guidance to practitioners by gaining insights into uncertainty-statistics methods (USMs). We review five USMs-discernibility analysis, impact category relevance, overlap area of probability distributions, null hypothesis significance testing (NHST), and modified NHST-and provide a common notation, terminology, and calculation platform. We further cross-compare all USMs by applying them to a case study on electric cars. USMs belong to a confirmatory or an exploratory statistics' branch, each serving different purposes to practitioners. Results highlight that common uncertainties and the magnitude of differences per impact are key in offering reliable insights. Common uncertainties are particularly important as disregarding them can lead to incorrect recommendations. On the basis of these considerations, we recommend the modified NHST as a confirmatory USM. We also recommend discernibility analysis as an exploratory USM along with recommendations for its improvement, as it disregards the magnitude of the differences. While further research is necessary to support our conclusions, the results and supporting material provided can help LCA practitioners in delivering a more robust basis for decision-making.
  8. Henriksson PJG, Rico A, Troell M, Klinger DH, Buschmann AH, Saksida S, et al.
    Sustain Sci, 2018;13(4):1105-1120.
    PMID: 30147798 DOI: 10.1007/s11625-017-0511-8
    Global seafood provides almost 20% of all animal protein in diets, and aquaculture is, despite weakening trends, the fastest growing food sector worldwide. Recent increases in production have largely been achieved through intensification of existing farming systems, resulting in higher risks of disease outbreaks. This has led to increased use of antimicrobials (AMs) and consequent antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in many farming sectors, which may compromise the treatment of bacterial infections in the aquaculture species itself and increase the risks of AMR in humans through zoonotic diseases or through the transfer of AMR genes to human bacteria. Multiple stakeholders have, as a result, criticized the aquaculture industry, resulting in consequent regulations in some countries. AM use in aquaculture differs from that in livestock farming due to aquaculture's greater diversity of species and farming systems, alternative means of AM application, and less consolidated farming practices in many regions. This, together with less research on AM use in aquaculture in general, suggests that large data gaps persist with regards to its overall use, breakdowns by species and system, and how AMs become distributed in, and impact on, the overall social-ecological systems in which they are embedded. This paper identifies the main factors (and challenges) behind application rates, which enables discussion of mitigation pathways. From a set of identified key mechanisms for AM usage, six proximate factors are identified: vulnerability to bacterial disease, AM access, disease diagnostic capacity, AMR, target markets and food safety regulations, and certification. Building upon these can enable local governments to reduce AM use through farmer training, spatial planning, assistance with disease identification, and stricter regulations. National governments and international organizations could, in turn, assist with disease-free juveniles and vaccines, enforce rigid monitoring of the quantity and quality of AMs used by farmers and the AM residues in the farmed species and in the environment, and promote measures to reduce potential human health risks associated with AMR.
  9. Léger A, Lambraki I, Graells T, Cousins M, Henriksson PJG, Harbarth S, et al.
    J Antimicrob Chemother, 2021 01 01;76(1):1-21.
    PMID: 33057678 DOI: 10.1093/jac/dkaa394
    The global threat of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) requires coordinated actions by and across different sectors. Increasing attention at the global and national levels has led to different strategies to tackle the challenge. The diversity of possible actions to address AMR is currently not well understood from a One Health perspective. AMR-Intervene, an interdisciplinary social-ecological framework, describes interventions to tackle AMR in terms of six components: (i) core information about the publication; (ii) social system; (iii) bio-ecological system; (iv) triggers and goals; (v) implementation and governance; and (vi) assessment. AMR-Intervene provides a broadly applicable framework, which can inform the design, implementation, assessment and reporting of interventions to tackle AMR and, in turn, enable faster uptake of successful interventions to build societal resilience to AMR.
  10. Léger A, Lambraki I, Graells T, Cousins M, Henriksson PJG, Harbarth S, et al.
    BMC Infect Dis, 2021 Aug 26;21(1):873.
    PMID: 34445962 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-021-06483-z
    BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is among the most pressing One Health issues. While interventions and policies with various targets and goals have been implemented, evidence about factors underpinning success and failure of interventions in different sectors is lacking. The objective of this study is to identify characteristics of AMR interventions that increase their capacity to impact AMR. This study focuses on AMR interventions targeting E. coli.

    METHODS: We used the AMR-Intervene framework to extract descriptions of the social and ecological systems of interventions to determine factors contributing to their success.

    RESULTS: We identified 52 scientific publications referring to 42 unique E. coli AMR interventions. We mainly identified interventions implemented in high-income countries (36/42), at the national level (16/42), targeting primarily one sector of society (37/42) that was mainly the human sector (25/42). Interventions were primarily funded by governments (38/42). Most intervention targeted a low leverage point in the AMR system, (36/42), and aimed to change the epidemiology of AMR (14/42). Among all included publications, 55% (29/52) described at least one success factor or obstacle (29/52) and 19% (10/52) identified at least one success factor and one obstacle. Most reported success factors related to communication between the actors and stakeholders and the role of media, and stressed the importance of collaboration between disciplines and external partners. Described obstacles covered data quality, access to data and statistical analyses, and the validity of the results.

    CONCLUSIONS: Overall, we identified a lack of diversity regarding interventions. In addition, most published E. coli interventions were poorly described with limited evidence of the factors that contributed to the intervention success or failure. Design and reporting guidelines would help to improve reporting quality and provide a valuable tool for improving the science of AMR interventions.

  11. Lambraki IA, Chadag MV, Cousins M, Graells T, Léger A, Henriksson PJG, et al.
    Front Microbiol, 2022;13:992507.
    PMID: 36687632 DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2022.992507
    BACKGROUND: With AMU projected to increase, South East Asia (SEA) is at high risk of experiencing disproportionate health, social, and economic burdens due to antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Our objective was to identify factors influencing AMR in SEA's food system and places for intervention by integrating the perspectives of experts from the region to inform policy and management decisions.

    MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted two 6.5 h workshops and two 90-min interviews involving 18 AMR and other disciplinary experts from human, animal, and environment sectors who brainstormed the factors influencing AMR and identified leverage points (places) for intervention. Transcripts and workshop materials were coded for factors and their connections and transcribed into a causal loop diagram (CLD). Thematic analysis described AMR dynamics in SEA's food system and leverage points for intervention. The CLD and themes were confirmed via participant feedback.

    RESULTS: Participants constructed a CLD of AMR in the SEA food system that contained 98 factors interlinked by 362 connections. CLD factors reflected eight sub-areas of the SEA food system (e.g., government). Seven themes [e.g., antimicrobial and pesticide use and AMR spread (n = 40 quotes)], six "overarching factors" that impact the entire AMR system [e.g., the drive to survive (n = 12 quotes)], and 10 places for intervention that target CLD factors (n = 5) and overarching factors (n = 2) emerged from workshop discussions.

    CONCLUSION: The participant derived CLD of factors influencing AMR in the SEA food system demonstrates that AMR is a product of numerous interlinked actions taken across the One Health spectrum and that finding solutions is no simple task. Developing the model enabled the identification of potentially promising leverage points across human, animal, and environment sectors that, if comprehensively targeted using multi-pronged interventions, could evoke system wide changes that mitigate AMR. Even targeting some leverage points for intervention, such as increasing investments in research and capacity building, and setting and enforcing regulations to control antimicrobial supply, demand, and use could, in turn, shift mindsets that lead to changes in more difficult to alter leverage points, such as redefining the profit-driven intent that drives system behavior in ways that transform AMU and sustainably mitigate AMR.

  12. Wernli D, Søgaard Jørgensen P, Parmley EJ, Majowicz SE, Lambraki I, Carson CA, et al.
    Lancet Planet Health, 2023 Jul;7(7):e630-e637.
    PMID: 37438004 DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00128-6
    Social-ecological systems conceptualise how social human systems and ecological natural systems are intertwined. In this Personal View, we define the scope and applicability of social-ecological resilience to antimicrobial resistance. Resilience to antimicrobial resistance corresponds to the capacity to maintain the societal benefits of antimicrobial use and One Health systems' performance in the face of the evolutionary behaviour of microorganisms in response to antimicrobial use. Social-ecological resilience provides an appropriate framework to make sense of the disruptive impacts resulting from the emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance; capture the diversity of strategies needed to tackle antimicrobial resistance and to live with it; understand the conditions that underpin the success or failure of interventions; and appreciate the need for adaptive and coevolutionary governance. Overall, resilience thinking is essential to improve understanding of how human societies dynamically can cope with, adapt, and transform to the growing global challenge of antimicrobial resistance.
  13. Cousins M, Parmley EJ, Greer AL, Neiterman E, Lambraki IA, Graells T, et al.
    PLoS One, 2023;18(8):e0290464.
    PMID: 37616319 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0290464
    BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) is a global problem with large health and economic consequences. Current gaps in quantitative data are a major limitation for creating models intended to simulate the drivers of AMR. As an intermediate step, expert knowledge and opinion could be utilized to fill gaps in knowledge for areas of the system where quantitative data does not yet exist or are hard to quantify. Therefore, the objective of this study was to identify quantifiable data about the current state of the factors that drive AMR and the strengths and directions of relationships between the factors from statements made by a group of experts from the One Health system that drives AMR development and transmission in a European context.

    METHODS: This study builds upon previous work that developed a causal loop diagram of AMR using input from two workshops conducted in 2019 in Sweden with experts within the European food system context. A secondary analysis of the workshop transcripts was conducted to identify semi-quantitative data to parameterize drivers in a model of AMR.

    MAIN FINDINGS: Participants spoke about AMR by combining their personal experiences with professional expertise within their fields. The analysis of participants' statements provided semi-quantitative data that can help inform a future of AMR emergence and transmission based on a causal loop diagram of AMR in a Swedish One Health system context.

    CONCLUSION: Using transcripts of a workshop including participants with diverse expertise across the system that drives AMR, we gained invaluable insight into the past, current, and potential future states of the major drivers of AMR, particularly where quantitative data are lacking.

  14. Graells T, Lambraki IA, Cousins M, Léger A, Henriksson PJG, Troell M, et al.
    Front Public Health, 2023;11:1230848.
    PMID: 37900049 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1230848
    INTRODUCTION: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a challenge to modern medicine. Interventions have been applied worldwide to tackle AMR, but these actions are often not reported to peers or published, leading to important knowledge gaps about what actions are being taken. Understanding factors that influence the implementation of AMR interventions and what factors are relevant in low-middle-income countries (LMICs) and high-income countries (HICs) were the key objectives of this exploratory study, with the aim to identifying which priorities these contexts need.

    METHODS: A questionnaire was used to explore context, characteristics, and success factors or obstacles to intervention success based on participant input. The context was analyzed using the AMR-Intervene framework, and success factors and obstacles to intervention success were identified using thematic analysis.

    RESULTS: Of the 77 interventions, 57 were implemented in HICs and 17 in LMICs. Interventions took place in the animal sector, followed by the human sector. Public organizations were mainly responsible for implementation and funding. Nine themes and 32 sub-themes emerged as important for intervention success. The themes most frequently reported were 'behavior', 'capacity and resources', 'planning', and 'information'. Five sub-themes were key in all contexts ('collaboration and coordination', 'implementation', 'assessment', 'governance', and 'awareness'), two were key in LMICs ('funding and finances' and 'surveillance, antimicrobial susceptibility testing and preventive screening'), and five were key in HICs ('mandatory', 'multiple profiles', 'personnel', 'management', and 'design').

    CONCLUSION: LMIC sub-themes showed that funding and surveillance were still key issues for interventions, while important HIC sub-themes were more specific and detailed, including mandatory enforcement, multiple profiles, and personnel needed for good management and good design. While behavior is often underrated when implementing AMR interventions, capacity and resources are usually considered, and LMICs can benefit from sub-themes captured in HICs if tailored to their contexts. The factors identified can improve the design, planning, implementation, and evaluation of interventions.

  15. Gephart JA, Henriksson PJG, Parker RWR, Shepon A, Gorospe KD, Bergman K, et al.
    Nature, 2021 Sep;597(7876):360-365.
    PMID: 34526707 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03889-2
    Fish and other aquatic foods (blue foods) present an opportunity for more sustainable diets1,2. Yet comprehensive comparison has been limited due to sparse inclusion of blue foods in environmental impact studies3,4 relative to the vast diversity of production5. Here we provide standardized estimates of greenhouse gas, nitrogen, phosphorus, freshwater and land stressors for species groups covering nearly three quarters of global production. We find that across all blue foods, farmed bivalves and seaweeds generate the lowest stressors. Capture fisheries predominantly generate greenhouse gas emissions, with small pelagic fishes generating lower emissions than all fed aquaculture, but flatfish and crustaceans generating the highest. Among farmed finfish and crustaceans, silver and bighead carps have the lowest greenhouse gas, nitrogen and phosphorus emissions, but highest water use, while farmed salmon and trout use the least land and water. Finally, we model intervention scenarios and find improving feed conversion ratios reduces stressors across all fed groups, increasing fish yield reduces land and water use by up to half, and optimizing gears reduces capture fishery emissions by more than half for some groups. Collectively, our analysis identifies high-performing blue foods, highlights opportunities to improve environmental performance, advances data-poor environmental assessments, and informs sustainable diets.
  16. Wernli D, Jørgensen PS, Parmley EJ, Troell M, Majowicz S, Harbarth S, et al.
    Lancet Infect Dis, 2020 Dec;20(12):e307-e311.
    PMID: 32853549 DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30392-3
    Improving evidence for action is crucial to tackle antimicrobial resistance. The number of interventions for antimicrobial resistance is increasing but current research has major limitations in terms of efforts, methods, scope, quality, and reporting. Moving the agenda forwards requires an improved understanding of the diversity of interventions, their feasibility and cost-benefit, the implementation factors that shape and underpin their effectiveness, and the ways in which individual interventions might interact synergistically or antagonistically to influence actions against antimicrobial resistance in different contexts. Within the efforts to strengthen the global governance of antimicrobial resistance, we advocate for the creation of an international One Health platform for online learning. The platform will synthesise the evidence for actions on antimicrobial resistance into a fully accessible database; generate new scientific insights into the design, implementation, evaluation, and reporting of the broad range of interventions relevant to addressing antimicrobial resistance; and ultimately contribute to the goal of building societal resilience to this central challenge of the 21st century.
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