RESULTS: Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial east Pacific ocean have anomalously increased significantly during July - October 2006 indicating the typical development of El Niño conditions. The persistence of these conditions will lead to extremes in global-scale climate anomalies as has been observed during similar conditions in the past. Positive Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies, indicative of severe drought conditions, have been observed across all of Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines, which are usually the first areas to experience ENSO-related impacts. This dryness can be expected to continue, on average, for the remainder of 2006 continuing into the early part of 2007. During the period November 2006 - January 2007 climate forecasts indicate that there is a high probability for above normal rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Islands, the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, northern South America and equatorial east Africa. Taking into consideration current observations and climate forecast information, indications are that the following regions are at increased risk for disease outbreaks: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and most of the southeast Asia Islands for increased dengue fever transmission and increased respiratory illness; Coastal Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Colombia for increased risk of malaria; Bangladesh and coastal India for elevated risk of cholera; East Africa for increased risk of a Rift Valley fever outbreak and elevated malaria; southwest USA for increased risk for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome and plague; southern California for increased West Nile virus transmission; and northeast Brazil for increased dengue fever and respiratory illness.
CONCLUSION: The current development of El Niño conditions has significant implications for global public health. Extremes in climate events with above normal rainfall and flooding in some regions and extended drought periods in other regions will occur. Forecasting disease is critical for timely and efficient planning of operational control programs. In this paper we describe developing global climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks that will give decision makers additional tools to make rational judgments concerning implementation of disease prevention and mitigation strategies.
METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis of interventional studies assessing quality improvement processes, interventions, and structure in developing country surgical systems was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items of Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Studies were included if they were conducted in an LMIC, occurred in a surgical setting, and measured the effect of an implementation and its impact. The primary outcome was mortality, and secondary outcomes were rates of rates of hospital-acquired infection (HAI) and surgical site infections (SSI). Prospero Registration: CRD42020171542.
RESULT: Of 38,273 search results, 31 studies were included in a qualitative synthesis, and 28 articles were included in a meta-analysis. Implementation of multimodal bundled interventions reduced the incidence of HAI by a relative risk (RR) of 0.39 (95%CI 0.26 to 0.59), the effect of hand hygiene interventions on HAIs showed a non-significant effect of RR of 0.69 (0.46-1.05). The WHO Safe Surgery Checklist reduced mortality by RR 0.68 (0.49 to 0.95) and SSI by RR 0.50 (0.33 to 0.63) and antimicrobial stewardship interventions reduced SSI by RR 0.67 (0.48-0.93).
CONCLUSION: There is evidence that a number of quality improvement processes, interventions and structural changes can improve mortality, HAI and SSI outcomes in the peri-operative setting in LMICs.
METHODS: We used the methodology employed by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control to assess the prevalence of HAIs in Punjab Province, Pakistan. Data were collected from 13 hospitals using a structured data collection tool.
RESULTS: Out of 1,553 hospitalized patients, 130 (8.4%) had symptoms of HAIs. The most common HAI was surgical site infection (40.0%), followed by bloodstream infection (21.5%), and lower respiratory tract infection (14.6%). The prevalence of HAI was higher in private sector hospitals (25.0%) and among neonates (23.8%) and patients admitted to intensive care units (33.3%). Patients without HAIs were admitted mainly to public sector hospitals and adult medical and surgical wards.
CONCLUSIONS: The study found a high rate of HAIs among hospitals in Pakistan, especially surgical site infections, bloodstream infections, and lower respiratory tract infections. This needs to be addressed to reduce morbidity, mortality, and costs in the future, and further research is planned.
METHODOLOGY: A follow-up in prospective cohort surveillance was conducted on patients admitted to an adult medical-surgical ICU of a university hospital and two governmental hospitals in Malaysia from October 2003 to December 2006. VAP was detected using CDC criteria which included clinical manifestation and confirmed endotracheal secretion culture results.
RESULTS: In total, 215 patients (2,306 patient-days) were enrolled into the study. The incidence of ICU-acquired device-related NI was 29.3 % (n = 63). The device-related VAP infection rate was 27.0 % (n = 58), with a mechanical ventilator utilization rate of 88.7%. The death rate due to all ICU-acquired NI including sepsis was 6.5%. The most common causative pathogen was Klebsiella pneumoniae (n = 27). Multivariate analysis using Cox regression showed that the risk factors identified were aspiration pneumonia (HR = 4.09; 95% CI = 1.24, 13.51; P = 0.021), cancer (HR = 2.51; 95% CI = 1.27, 4.97; P = 0.008), leucocytosis (HR=3.43; 95% CI= 1.60, 7.37; P=0.002) and duration of mechanical ventilation (HR=1.04; 95% CI = 1.00, 1.08; P = 0.030). Age, gender and race were not identified as risk factors in the multivariable analysis performed.
CONCLUSION: The incidence of VAP was comparable to that found in the National Nosocomial Infection Surveillance (NNIS) System report of June 1998. The incidence of VAP was considered high for the three hospitals studied.