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Fulltext Polygenic risk prediction: why and when out-of-sample prediction R2 can exceed SNP-based heritability

Wang X, Walker A, Revez JA, Ni G, Adams MJ, McIntosh AM, et al.

Am J Hum Genet, 2023 Jul 06;110(7):1207-1215.
PMID: 37379836 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajhg.2023.06.006

In polygenic score (PGS) analysis, the coefficient of determination (R2) is a key statistic to evaluate efficacy. R2 is the proportion of phenotypic variance explained by the PGS, calculated in a cohort that is independent of the genome-wide association study (GWAS) that provided estimates of allelic effect sizes. The SNP-based heritability (hSNP2, the proportion of total phenotypic variances attributable to all common SNPs) is the theoretical upper limit of the out-of-sample prediction R2. However, in real data analyses R2 has been reported to exceed hSNP2, which occurs in parallel with the observation that hSNP2 estimates tend to decline as the number of cohorts being meta-analyzed increases. Here, we quantify why and when these observations are expected. Using theory and simulation, we show that if heterogeneities in cohort-specific hSNP2 exist, or if genetic correlations between cohorts are less than one, hSNP2 estimates can decrease as the number of cohorts being meta-analyzed increases. We derive conditions when the out-of-sample prediction R2 will be greater than hSNP2 and show the validity of our derivations with real data from a binary trait (major depression) and a continuous trait (educational attainment). Our research calls for a better approach to integrating information from multiple cohorts to address issues of between-cohort heterogeneity.

Matched MeSH terms: Multifactorial Inheritance/genetics
Fulltext Polygenic hazard score is associated with prostate cancer in multi-ethnic populations

Huynh-Le MP, Fan CC, Karunamuni R, Thompson WK, Martinez ME, Eeles RA, et al.

Nat Commun, 2021 02 23;12(1):1236.
PMID: 33623038 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21287-0

Genetic models for cancer have been evaluated using almost exclusively European data, which could exacerbate health disparities. A polygenic hazard score (PHS1) is associated with age at prostate cancer diagnosis and improves screening accuracy in Europeans. Here, we evaluate performance of PHS2 (PHS1, adapted for OncoArray) in a multi-ethnic dataset of 80,491 men (49,916 cases, 30,575 controls). PHS2 is associated with age at diagnosis of any and aggressive (Gleason score ≥ 7, stage T3-T4, PSA ≥ 10 ng/mL, or nodal/distant metastasis) cancer and prostate-cancer-specific death. Associations with cancer are significant within European (n = 71,856), Asian (n = 2,382), and African (n = 6,253) genetic ancestries (p

Matched MeSH terms: Multifactorial Inheritance/genetics*
Fulltext Polygenic risk scores for prediction of breast cancer risk in Asian populations

Ho WK, Tai MC, Dennis J, Shu X, Li J, Ho PJ, et al.

Genet Med, 2022 Mar;24(3):586-600.
PMID: 34906514 DOI: 10.1016/j.gim.2021.11.008

PURPOSE: Non-European populations are under-represented in genetics studies, hindering clinical implementation of breast cancer polygenic risk scores (PRSs). We aimed to develop PRSs using the largest available studies of Asian ancestry and to assess the transferability of PRS across ethnic subgroups.
METHODS: The development data set comprised 138,309 women from 17 case-control studies. PRSs were generated using a clumping and thresholding method, lasso penalized regression, an Empirical Bayes approach, a Bayesian polygenic prediction approach, or linear combinations of multiple PRSs. These PRSs were evaluated in 89,898 women from 3 prospective studies (1592 incident cases).
RESULTS: The best performing PRS (genome-wide set of single-nucleotide variations [formerly single-nucleotide polymorphism]) had a hazard ratio per unit SD of 1.62 (95% CI = 1.46-1.80) and an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.635 (95% CI = 0.622-0.649). Combined Asian and European PRSs (333 single-nucleotide variations) had a hazard ratio per SD of 1.53 (95% CI = 1.37-1.71) and an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.621 (95% CI = 0.608-0.635). The distribution of the latter PRS was different across ethnic subgroups, confirming the importance of population-specific calibration for valid estimation of breast cancer risk.
CONCLUSION: PRSs developed in this study, from association data from multiple ancestries, can enhance risk stratification for women of Asian ancestry.

Matched MeSH terms: Multifactorial Inheritance/genetics
Fulltext Genomic Dissection of Bipolar Disorder and Schizophrenia, Including 28 Subphenotypes

Bipolar Disorder and Schizophrenia Working Group of the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium. Electronic address: douglas.ruderfer@vanderbilt.edu, Bipolar Disorder and Schizophrenia Working Group of the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium

Cell, 2018 Jun 14;173(7):1705-1715.e16.
PMID: 29906448 DOI: 10.1016/j.cell.2018.05.046

Schizophrenia and bipolar disorder are two distinct diagnoses that share symptomology. Understanding the genetic factors contributing to the shared and disorder-specific symptoms will be crucial for improving diagnosis and treatment. In genetic data consisting of 53,555 cases (20,129 bipolar disorder [BD], 33,426 schizophrenia [SCZ]) and 54,065 controls, we identified 114 genome-wide significant loci implicating synaptic and neuronal pathways shared between disorders. Comparing SCZ to BD (23,585 SCZ, 15,270 BD) identified four genomic regions including one with disorder-independent causal variants and potassium ion response genes as contributing to differences in biology between the disorders. Polygenic risk score (PRS) analyses identified several significant correlations within case-only phenotypes including SCZ PRS with psychotic features and age of onset in BD. For the first time, we discover specific loci that distinguish between BD and SCZ and identify polygenic components underlying multiple symptom dimensions. These results point to the utility of genetics to inform symptomology and potential treatment.

Matched MeSH terms: Multifactorial Inheritance/genetics
Fulltext Dimensionality reduction reveals fine-scale structure in the Japanese population with consequences for polygenic risk prediction

Sakaue S, Hirata J, Kanai M, Suzuki K, Akiyama M, Lai Too C, et al.

Nat Commun, 2020 03 26;11(1):1569.
PMID: 32218440 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-15194-z

The diversity in our genome is crucial to understanding the demographic history of worldwide populations. However, we have yet to know whether subtle genetic differences within a population can be disentangled, or whether they have an impact on complex traits. Here we apply dimensionality reduction methods (PCA, t-SNE, PCA-t-SNE, UMAP, and PCA-UMAP) to biobank-derived genomic data of a Japanese population (n = 169,719). Dimensionality reduction reveals fine-scale population structure, conspicuously differentiating adjacent insular subpopulations. We further enluciate the demographic landscape of these Japanese subpopulations using population genetics analyses. Finally, we perform phenome-wide polygenic risk score (PRS) analyses on 67 complex traits. Differences in PRS between the deconvoluted subpopulations are not always concordant with those in the observed phenotypes, suggesting that the PRS differences might reflect biases from the uncorrected structure, in a trait-dependent manner. This study suggests that such an uncorrected structure can be a potential pitfall in the clinical application of PRS.

Matched MeSH terms: Multifactorial Inheritance/genetics*
Fulltext Evaluating approaches for constructing polygenic risk scores for prostate cancer in men of African and European ancestry

Darst BF, Shen J, Madduri RK, Rodriguez AA, Xiao Y, Sheng X, et al.

Am J Hum Genet, 2023 Jul 06;110(7):1200-1206.
PMID: 37311464 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajhg.2023.05.010

Genome-wide polygenic risk scores (GW-PRSs) have been reported to have better predictive ability than PRSs based on genome-wide significance thresholds across numerous traits. We compared the predictive ability of several GW-PRS approaches to a recently developed PRS of 269 established prostate cancer-risk variants from multi-ancestry GWASs and fine-mapping studies (PRS269). GW-PRS models were trained with a large and diverse prostate cancer GWAS of 107,247 cases and 127,006 controls that we previously used to develop the multi-ancestry PRS269. Resulting models were independently tested in 1,586 cases and 1,047 controls of African ancestry from the California Uganda Study and 8,046 cases and 191,825 controls of European ancestry from the UK Biobank and further validated in 13,643 cases and 210,214 controls of European ancestry and 6,353 cases and 53,362 controls of African ancestry from the Million Veteran Program. In the testing data, the best performing GW-PRS approach had AUCs of 0.656 (95% CI = 0.635-0.677) in African and 0.844 (95% CI = 0.840-0.848) in European ancestry men and corresponding prostate cancer ORs of 1.83 (95% CI = 1.67-2.00) and 2.19 (95% CI = 2.14-2.25), respectively, for each SD unit increase in the GW-PRS. Compared to the GW-PRS, in African and European ancestry men, the PRS269 had larger or similar AUCs (AUC = 0.679, 95% CI = 0.659-0.700 and AUC = 0.845, 95% CI = 0.841-0.849, respectively) and comparable prostate cancer ORs (OR = 2.05, 95% CI = 1.87-2.26 and OR = 2.21, 95% CI = 2.16-2.26, respectively). Findings were similar in the validation studies. This investigation suggests that current GW-PRS approaches may not improve the ability to predict prostate cancer risk compared to the PRS269 developed from multi-ancestry GWASs and fine-mapping.

Matched MeSH terms: Multifactorial Inheritance/genetics
Fulltext Identification of common genetic risk variants for autism spectrum disorder

Grove J, Ripke S, Als TD, Mattheisen M, Walters RK, Won H, et al.

Nat Genet, 2019 03;51(3):431-444.
PMID: 30804558 DOI: 10.1038/s41588-019-0344-8

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a highly heritable and heterogeneous group of neurodevelopmental phenotypes diagnosed in more than 1% of children. Common genetic variants contribute substantially to ASD susceptibility, but to date no individual variants have been robustly associated with ASD. With a marked sample-size increase from a unique Danish population resource, we report a genome-wide association meta-analysis of 18,381 individuals with ASD and 27,969 controls that identified five genome-wide-significant loci. Leveraging GWAS results from three phenotypes with significantly overlapping genetic architectures (schizophrenia, major depression, and educational attainment), we identified seven additional loci shared with other traits at equally strict significance levels. Dissecting the polygenic architecture, we found both quantitative and qualitative polygenic heterogeneity across ASD subtypes. These results highlight biological insights, particularly relating to neuronal function and corticogenesis, and establish that GWAS performed at scale will be much more productive in the near term in ASD.

Matched MeSH terms: Multifactorial Inheritance/genetics
Fulltext Joint analysis of psychiatric disorders increases accuracy of risk prediction for schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and major depressive disorder

Maier R, Moser G, Chen GB, Ripke S, Cross-Disorder Working Group of the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium, Coryell W, et al.

Am J Hum Genet, 2015 Feb 05;96(2):283-94.
PMID: 25640677 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajhg.2014.12.006

Genetic risk prediction has several potential applications in medical research and clinical practice and could be used, for example, to stratify a heterogeneous population of patients by their predicted genetic risk. However, for polygenic traits, such as psychiatric disorders, the accuracy of risk prediction is low. Here we use a multivariate linear mixed model and apply multi-trait genomic best linear unbiased prediction for genetic risk prediction. This method exploits correlations between disorders and simultaneously evaluates individual risk for each disorder. We show that the multivariate approach significantly increases the prediction accuracy for schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and major depressive disorder in the discovery as well as in independent validation datasets. By grouping SNPs based on genome annotation and fitting multiple random effects, we show that the prediction accuracy could be further improved. The gain in prediction accuracy of the multivariate approach is equivalent to an increase in sample size of 34% for schizophrenia, 68% for bipolar disorder, and 76% for major depressive disorders using single trait models. Because our approach can be readily applied to any number of GWAS datasets of correlated traits, it is a flexible and powerful tool to maximize prediction accuracy. With current sample size, risk predictors are not useful in a clinical setting but already are a valuable research tool, for example in experimental designs comparing cases with high and low polygenic risk.

Matched MeSH terms: Multifactorial Inheritance/genetics*
Fulltext Identification of novel breast cancer susceptibility loci in meta-analyses conducted among Asian and European descendants

Shu X, Long J, Cai Q, Kweon SS, Choi JY, Kubo M, et al.

Nat Commun, 2020 Mar 05;11(1):1217.
PMID: 32139696 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-15046-w

Known risk variants explain only a small proportion of breast cancer heritability, particularly in Asian women. To search for additional genetic susceptibility loci for breast cancer, here we perform a meta-analysis of data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) conducted in Asians (24,206 cases and 24,775 controls) and European descendants (122,977 cases and 105,974 controls). We identified 31 potential novel loci with the lead variant showing an association with breast cancer risk at P

Matched MeSH terms: Multifactorial Inheritance/genetics
Fulltext Seasonality shows evidence for polygenic architecture and genetic correlation with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder

Byrne EM, Psychiatric Genetics Consortium Major Depressive Disorder Working Group, Raheja UK, Stephens SH, Heath AC, Madden PA, et al.

J Clin Psychiatry, 2015 Feb;76(2):128-34.
PMID: 25562672 DOI: 10.4088/JCP.14m08981

OBJECTIVE: To test common genetic variants for association with seasonality (seasonal changes in mood and behavior) and to investigate whether there are shared genetic risk factors between psychiatric disorders and seasonality.
METHOD: Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) were conducted in Australian (between 1988 and 1990 and between 2010 and 2013) and Amish (between May 2010 and December 2011) samples in whom the Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaire (SPAQ) had been administered, and the results were meta-analyzed in a total sample of 4,156 individuals. Genetic risk scores based on results from prior large GWAS studies of bipolar disorder, major depressive disorder (MDD), and schizophrenia were calculated to test for overlap in risk between psychiatric disorders and seasonality.
RESULTS: The most significant association was with rs11825064 (P = 1.7 × 10⁻⁶, β = 0.64, standard error = 0.13), an intergenic single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) found on chromosome 11. The evidence for overlap in risk factors was strongest for schizophrenia and seasonality, with the schizophrenia genetic profile scores explaining 3% of the variance in log-transformed global seasonality scores. Bipolar disorder genetic profile scores were also associated with seasonality, although at much weaker levels (minimum P value = 3.4 × 10⁻³), and no evidence for overlap in risk was detected between MDD and seasonality.
CONCLUSIONS: Common SNPs of large effect most likely do not exist for seasonality in the populations examined. As expected, there were overlapping genetic risk factors for bipolar disorder (but not MDD) with seasonality. Unexpectedly, the risk for schizophrenia and seasonality had the largest overlap, an unprecedented finding that requires replication in other populations and has potential clinical implications considering overlapping cognitive deficits in seasonal affective disorders and schizophrenia.

Matched MeSH terms: Multifactorial Inheritance/genetics*
Fulltext Association analysis identifies 65 new breast cancer risk loci

Michailidou K, Lindström S, Dennis J, Beesley J, Hui S, Kar S, et al.

Nature, 2017 Nov 02;551(7678):92-94.
PMID: 29059683 DOI: 10.1038/nature24284

Breast cancer risk is influenced by rare coding variants in susceptibility genes, such as BRCA1, and many common, mostly non-coding variants. However, much of the genetic contribution to breast cancer risk remains unknown. Here we report the results of a genome-wide association study of breast cancer in 122,977 cases and 105,974 controls of European ancestry and 14,068 cases and 13,104 controls of East Asian ancestry. We identified 65 new loci that are associated with overall breast cancer risk at P

Matched MeSH terms: Multifactorial Inheritance/genetics

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