The impact of Japanese nuclear wastewater discharge into the sea on the global economy: Input-output model approach

As the division of work within the world economic system becomes increasingly complex, the impact of disturbing events on the economic system is expanding. Recently, Japan proposed to discharge nuclear wastewater into the Pacific Ocean, which will cause damage to marine fisheries, thereby seriously affecting fisheries and other industries in Japan and other countries and regions around the world. Considering different scenarios of final and intermediate demand shifting, this paper uses the Inoperability Input-Output Model (IIM) and Multi-Region Input-Output Model (MRIO) to simulate the economic consequences of nuclear wastewater discharge in Japan and calculate the economic changes of each industry and country (region). The results show that: In the short term, when only the final demand for Japanese fishery products decreases. (1) The ten countries (regions) with significant economic losses are Japan, the United States, Chinese Taipei, Canada, Chile, South Africa, Mexico, Peru, the United Kingdom, and Ireland. (2) The ten countries (regions) with a significant increase in total output due to demand shift are China (People's Republic of), the Rest of the World, India, Indonesia, Viet Nam, the Philippines, Brazil, Myanmar, the Russian Federation, and Malaysia. (3) A ranking of changes in the total output of different industries. In the long term, when both intermediate and final demand for Japanese fishery products decrease. (4) The change in value added in Japan. (5) The change in value added of 67 countries (regions) worldwide. The ten countries (regions) with the most significant increase in value-added are the Russian Federation, China (People's Republic of), the Rest of the World, the United States, Indonesia, Australia, Norway, Korea, Viet Nam, and Myanmar. The ten countries (regions) with the most significant decrease in value-added are Japan, Chinese Taipei, Chile, South Africa, Peru, Thailand, Mexico, Cambodia, Costa Rica, and Morocco. Changes in value added of 45 industrial sectors worldwide.