Trends and projections of type 2 diabetes mellitus in South Asia: a three-decade analysis and forecast through 2031 using global burden of disease study (1990 - 2021)

Kumar V 1 , Zahiruddin QS 2 , Jena D 3 , R R 4 , Kaur M 5 , Srivastava M 6 Show all authors , Barwal A 7 , Siva Prasad GV 8 , Rajput P 9 , Jaiswal V 10 , Kathuria R 11 , Joshi A 12 , Shabil M 13 , Taneja M 14 , Mishra A 15 , Alabed AAA 16 , Bushi G 17 , Mehta R 18 , Sah S 19 , Gaidhane AM 20 , Satapathy P 16

Affiliations 

  • 1 Evidence for Policy and Learning, Global Center for Evidence Synthesis, Chandigarh, India
  • 2 South Asia Infant Feeding Research Network (SAIFRN), Division of Evidence Synthesis, Global Consortium of Public Health and Research, Datta Meghe Institute of Higher Education, Wardha, India
  • 3 Center for Global Health Research, Saveetha Medical College and Hospital, Saveetha Institute of Medical and Technical Sciences, Saveetha University, Chennai, India
  • 4 Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, School of Sciences, JAIN (Deemed to be University), Bangalore, India
  • 5 Department of Allied Healthcare and Sciences, Vivekananda Global University, Jaipur, India
  • 6 Department of Endocrinology, NIMS University, Jaipur, India
  • 7 Chandigarh Pharmacy College, Chandigarh Group of College, Mohali, India
  • 8 Department of Chemistry, Raghu Engineering College, Visakhapatnam, India
  • 9 School of Applied and Life Sciences, Division of Research and Innovation, Uttaranchal University, Dehradun, India
  • 10 IES Institute of Pharmacy, IES University, Bhopal, India
  • 11 New Delhi Institute of Management, Tughlakabad Institutional Area, New Delhi, India
  • 12 Graphic Era Institute of Medical Sciences, Graphic Era (Deemed to be University), Dehradun, India
  • 13 Department of Pharmacy, Noida Institute of Engineering and Technology (Pharmacy Institute), Greater Noida, India
  • 14 Centre of Research Impact and Outcome, Chitkara University, Rajpura, India
  • 15 Chitkara Centre for Research and Development, Chitkara University, Himachal Pradesh, India
  • 16 Faculty of Medicine, University of Cyberjaya, Cyberjaya, Malaysia
  • 17 School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Lovely Professional University, Phagwara, India
  • 18 Clinical Microbiology, RDC, Manav Rachna International Institute of Research and Studies, Faridabad, India
  • 19 Department of Paediatrics, Dr. D. Y. Patil Medical College, Hospital and Research Centre, Dr. D. Y. Patil Vidyapeeth, Pune, India
  • 20 Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, and Global Health Academy, School of Epidemiology and Public Health, Datta Meghe Institute of Higher Education, Wardha, India
Expert Rev Endocrinol Metab, 2025 Jan 07.
PMID: 39763434 DOI: 10.1080/17446651.2024.2448790

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The rapid rise of non-communicable diseases, particularly type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), poses a significant global public health challenge, with South Asia experiencing an increasingly severe burden. This study aimed to analyse historical trends of T2DM across South Asia from 1990 to 2021 and forecast incidence through 2031.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We carried out analysis based on the data from the 2021 Global burden of disease study. Joinpoint regression was used to identify significant changes in trends over time, and ARIMA models were applied to forecast incidence rates.

RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2021, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of age-standardized prevalence rates and incidence rates increased by 2.15 and 1.72 respectively. The age-standardized mortality rate rose more slowly, at 1.05 AAPC, with females experiencing a slightly higher AAPC than males. ARIMA forecasts suggest that by 2031, T2DM incidence rates will continue to rise significantly across all South Asian countries.

CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the need for public health policies focused on preventing obesity, promoting physical activity, and improving healthcare access. It also calls for addressing regional disparities in T2DM prevalence and mortality to better allocate resources and prioritize policies to combat the diabetes epidemic inSouth Asia.

* Title and MeSH Headings from MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine.

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