Burden and regional disparities of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in India: Insights from the global burden of disease data and projections for future incidence

Kumar V 1 , Singh M 2 , Khatib MN 3 , Balaraman AK 4 , Roopashree R 5 , Kaur M 6 Show all authors , Srivastava M 7 , Barwal A 8 , Prasad GVS 9 , Rajpu P 10 , Syed R 11 , Sharma G 12 , Kumar S 13 , Bushi G 14 , Chilakam N 15 , Pandey S 16 , Brar M 17 , Mehta R 18 , Sah S 19 , Shabil M 20 , Gaidhane AM 21

Affiliations 

  • 1 Evidence for Policy and Learning, Global Center for Evidence Synthesis, Chandigarh, India
  • 2 Center for Global Health Research, Saveetha Medical College and Hospital, Saveetha Institute of Medical and Technical Sciences, Saveetha University, Chennai, India
  • 3 Division of Evidence Synthesis, Global Consortium of Public Health and Research, Datta Meghe Institute of Higher Education, Wardha, India
  • 4 Research and Enterprise, University of Cyberjaya, Cyberjaya, Selangor, Malaysia
  • 5 Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, School of Sciences, JAIN (Deemed to be University), Bangalore, Karnataka, India
  • 6 Department of Allied Healthcare and Sciences, Vivekananda Global University, Jaipur, Rajasthan, India
  • 7 Department of Endocrinology, NIMS University, Jaipur, India
  • 8 Chandigarh Pharmacy College, Chandigarh Group of College, Mohali, Punjab, India
  • 9 Department of Chemistry, Raghu Engineering College, Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, India
  • 10 School of Applied and Life Sciences, Division of Research and Innovation, Uttaranchal University, Dehradun, India
  • 11 IES Institute of Pharmacy, IES University, Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh, India
  • 12 New Delhi Institute of Management, Tughlakabad Institutional Area, New Delhi, India
  • 13 Department of Microbiology, Graphic Era (Deemed to be University), Clement Town Dehradun-, India
  • 14 School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Lovely Professional University, Phagwara, India
  • 15 Noida Institute of Engineering and Technology (Pharmacy Institute), Greater Noida, India
  • 16 Centre of Research Impact and Outcome, Chitkara University, Rajpura, Punjab, India
  • 17 Chitkara Centre for Research and Development, Chitkara University, Himachal Pradesh, India
  • 18 Clinical Microbiology, RDC, Manav Rachna International Institute of Research and Studies, Faridabad, Haryana, India
  • 19 Department of Paediatrics, Dr.D. Y. Patil Medical College, Hospital and Research Centre Dr. D. Y. Patil Vidyapeeth, Pune, Maharashtra, India
  • 20 University Center for Research and Development, Chandigarh University, Mohali, Punjab, India
  • 21 Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, and Global Health Academy, School of Epidemiology and Public Health. Datta Meghe Institute of Higher Education, Wardha, India
Expert Rev Respir Med, 2025 Feb 07.
PMID: 39917855 DOI: 10.1080/17476348.2025.2464882

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally, particularly in low- and middle-income countries like India. This study aims to analyze regional trends and project future burden of COPD in India using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 1990-2021.

METHODS: This analysis utilized data from the GBD study to assess age-standardized prevalence (ASPR), incidence (ASIR), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) (ASDR), and mortality rates (ASMR) for COPD across Indian states. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze temporal trends, while ARIMA models predicted future incidence rates.

RESULTS: In 2021, the highest ASIR was observed in Rajasthan at 306.28, and the highest ASMR was observed in Uttarakhand at 227.19. Projections suggest that the ASIR for COPD in India will decrease from 265.16 in 2022 to 258.19 by 2031. The heatmap analysis identified states like Uttarakhand and Rajasthan as having the highest DALYs attributable to COPD risk factors, including air pollution and tobacco use.

CONCLUSION: COPD remains a public health challenge in India, with regional variability. Targeted interventions addressing air pollution, smoking cessation, and improved healthcare access are essential to mitigate the disease's future burden, particularly in high-risk regions.

* Title and MeSH Headings from MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine.

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