METHODS: A total of 2598 serum samples (1417 urban samples, 1181 rural samples) were randomly collected from adults ages 35-74 y. The presence of the dengue IgG antibody and neutralising antibodies to dengue virus (DENV) 1-4 was determined using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and the plaque reduction neutralisation test assay, respectively.
RESULTS: The prevalence of dengue IgG seropositivity was 85.39% in urban areas and 83.48% in rural areas. The seropositivity increased with every 10-y increase in age. Ethnicity was associated with dengue seropositivity in urban areas but not in rural areas. The factors associated with dengue seropositivity were sex and working outdoors. In dengue IgG-positive serum samples, 98.39% of the samples had neutralising antibodies against DENV3, but only 70.97% of them had neutralising antibodies against DENV4.
CONCLUSION: The high seroprevalence of dengue found in urban and rural areas suggests that both urban and rural communities are vital for establishing and sustaining DENV transmission in Malaysia.
METHODS: In this systematic review, meta-analysis, and modelling study, we searched PubMed, Ovid, and Web of Science for articles published from database inception until Sept 26, 2022, for prospective and retrospective cross-sectional studies that addressed serological chikungunya virus infection in any geographical region, age group, and population subgroup and for longitudinal prospective and retrospective cohort studies with data on chronic chikungunya or hospital admissions in people with chikungunya. We did a systematic review of studies on chikungunya seroprevalence and fitted catalytic models to each survey to estimate location-specific FOI (ie, the rate at which susceptible individuals acquire chikungunya infection). We performed a meta-analysis to estimate the proportion of symptomatic patients with laboratory-confirmed chikungunya who had chronic chikungunya or were admitted to hospital following infection. We used a random-effects model to assess the relationship between chronic sequelae and follow-up length using linear regression. The systematic review protocol is registered online on PROSPERO, CRD42022363102.
FINDINGS: We identified 60 studies with data on seroprevalence and chronic chikungunya symptoms done across 76 locations in 38 countries, and classified 17 (22%) of 76 locations as endemic settings and 59 (78%) as epidemic settings. The global long-term median annual FOI was 0·007 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·003-0·010) and varied from 0·0001 (0·00004-0·0002) to 0·113 (0·07-0·20). The highest estimated median seroprevalence at age 10 years was in south Asia (8·0% [95% UI 6·5-9·6]), followed by Latin America and the Caribbean (7·8% [4·9-14·6]), whereas median seroprevalence was lowest in the Middle East (1·0% [0·5-1·9]). We estimated that 51% (95% CI 45-58) of people with laboratory-confirmed symptomatic chikungunya had chronic disability after infection and 4% (3-5) were admitted to hospital following infection.
INTERPRETATION: We inferred subnational heterogeneity in long-term average annual FOI and transmission dynamics and identified both endemic and epidemic settings across different countries. Brazil, Ethiopia, Malaysia, and India included both endemic and epidemic settings. Long-term average annual FOI was higher in epidemic settings than endemic settings. However, long-term cumulative incidence of chikungunya can be similar between large outbreaks in epidemic settings with a high FOI and endemic settings with a relatively low FOI.
FUNDING: International Vaccine Institute.
METHODS: A randomly sampled, nationwide biobehavioural health survey was conducted in 8 prisons in Kyrgyzstan among all soon-to-be-released prisoners; women were oversampled. Consented participants underwent computer-assisted, standardized behavioural health assessment surveys and testing for HIV, HCV, HBV, and syphilis. Prevalence and means were computed, and generalized linear modelling was conducted, with all analyses using weights to account for disproportionate sampling by strata.
RESULTS: Among 381 prisoners who underwent consent procedures, 368 (96.6%) were enrolled in the study. Women were significantly older than men (40.6 vs. 36.5; p=0.004). Weighted prevalence (%), with confidence interval (CI), for each infection was high: HCV (49.7%; CI: 44.8-54.6%), syphilis (19.2%; CI: 15.1-23.5%), HIV (10.3%; CI: 6.9-13.8%), and HBV (6.2%; CI: 3.6-8.9%). Among the 31 people with HIV, 46.5% were aware of being HIV-infected. Men, compared to women, were significantly more likely to have injected drugs (38.3% vs.16.0%; p=0.001). Pre-incarceration and within-prison drug injection, primarily of opioids, was 35.4% and 30.8%, respectively. Independent correlates of HIV infection included lifetime drug injection (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]=38.75; p=0.001), mean number of years injecting (AOR=0.93; p=0.018), mean number of days experiencing drug problems (AOR=1.09; p=0.025), increasing duration of imprisonment (AOR=1.08; p=0.02 for each year) and having syphilis (AOR=3.51; p=0.003), while being female (AOR=3.06; p=0.004) and being a recidivist offender (AOR=2.67; p=0.008) were independently correlated with syphilis infection.
CONCLUSION: Drug injection, syphilis co-infection, and exposure to increased risk during incarceration are likely to be important contributors to HIV transmission among prisoners in Kyrgyzstan. Compared to the community, HIV is concentrated 34-fold higher in prisoners. A high proportion of undiagnosed syphilis and HIV infections presents a significant gap in the HIV care continuum. Findings highlight the critical importance of evidence-based responses within prison, including enhanced testing for HIV and sexually transmitted infections, to stem the evolving HIV epidemic in the region.
METHODS: We analysed incident HIV diagnoses from 2015-2018 and mortality trends from 2016-2018 for three age groups: 1) 15-24 years; 2) 25-49 years; and 3) ≥50 years. AIDS was defined as CD4<200cells/mL. Mortality was defined as deaths per 1000 patients newly diagnosed with HIV within the same calendar year. Mortality rates were calculated for 2016, 2017, and 2018, compared to age-matched general population rates, and all-cause standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated.
RESULTS: From 2015-2018, the proportion of OPWH annually diagnosed with HIV increased from 11.2% to 14.9% (p<0.01). At the time of diagnosis, OPWH were also significantly (p<0.01) more likely to have AIDS (43.8%) than those aged 25-49 years (29.5%) and 15-24 years (13.3%). Newly diagnosed OPWH had the same-year mortality ranging from 3 to 8 times higher than age-matched groups in the Ukrainian general population.
CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest a reassessment of HIV testing, prevention and treatment strategies in Ukraine is needed to bring OPWH into focus. OPWH are more likely to present with late-stage HIV and have higher mortality rates. Re-designing testing practices is especially crucial since OPWH are absent from targeted testing programs and are increasingly diagnosed as they present with AIDS-defining symptoms. New strategies for linkage and treatment programs should reflect the distinct needs of this target population.
METHODS AND FINDINGS: Our approach is based on a parsimonious mathematical model of disease transmission and only requires data collected through routine surveillance and standard case investigations. We apply it to assess the transmissibility of swine-origin influenza A H3N2v-M virus in the US, Nipah virus in Malaysia and Bangladesh, and also present a non-zoonotic example (cholera in the Dominican Republic). Estimation is based on two simple summary statistics, the proportion infected by the natural reservoir among detected cases (G) and among the subset of the first detected cases in each cluster (F). If detection of a case does not affect detection of other cases from the same cluster, we find that R can be estimated by 1-G; otherwise R can be estimated by 1-F when the case detection rate is low. In more general cases, bounds on R can still be derived.
CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a simple approach with limited data requirements that enables robust assessment of the risks posed by emerging zoonoses. We illustrate this by deriving transmissibility estimates for the H3N2v-M virus, an important step in evaluating the possible pandemic threat posed by this virus. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.