METHODS: An agent-based model (ABM) is a relatively new approach that provides a framework for analyzing the heterogeneity of the interactions, along with biological and environmental factors in such complex systems. The objective of this research is to design and develop an ABM that uses Geospatial Information System (GIS) capabilities, biological behaviors of vectors and reservoir hosts, and an improved Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemic model to explore the spread of ZCL. Various scenarios were implemented to analyze the future ZCL spreads in different parts of Maraveh Tappeh County, in the northeast region of Golestan Province in northeastern Iran, with alternative socio-ecological conditions.
RESULTS: The results confirmed that the spread of the disease arises principally in the desert, low altitude areas, and riverside population centers. The outcomes also showed that the restricting movement of humans reduces the severity of the transmission. Moreover, the spread of ZCL has a particular temporal pattern, since the most prevalent cases occurred in the fall. The evaluation test also showed the similarity between the results and the reported spatiotemporal trends.
CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the capability and efficiency of ABM to model and predict the spread of ZCL. The results of the presented approach can be considered as a guide for public health management and controlling the vector population .
METHODS: This study is part of the CASCADE international initiative. From February 18, 2019, to July 18, 2020, we followed ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke hospitalization rates and outcomes in Valiasr Hospital, Zanjan, Iran. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model and an interrupted time series analysis (ITS) to identify changes in stroke hospitalization rate, baseline stroke severity [measured by the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS)], disability [measured by the modified Rankin Scale (mRS)], presentation time (last seen normal to hospital presentation), thrombolytic therapy rate, median door-to-needle time, length of hospital stay, and in-hospital mortality. We compared in-hospital mortality between study periods using Cox-regression model.
RESULTS: During the study period, 1,026 stroke patients were hospitalized. Stroke hospitalization rates per 100,000 population decreased from 68.09 before the pandemic to 44.50 during the pandemic, with a significant decline in both Bayesian [Beta: -1.034; Standard Error (SE): 0.22, 95% CrI: -1.48, -0.59] and ITS analysis (estimate: -1.03, SE = 0.24, p Iran, the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted stroke outcomes and altered the delivery of stroke care. Observed lower admission rates for milder stroke may possibly be due to fear of exposure related to COVID-19. The decrease in patients treated with thrombolysis and the increased disability at discharge may indicate changes in the delivery of stroke care and increased pressure on existing stroke acute and subacute services. The results of this research will contribute to a similar analysis of the larger CASCADE dataset in order to confirm findings at a global scale and improve measures to ensure the best quality of care for stroke patients during the COVID-19 pandemic.
OBJECTIVE: To develop international WC percentile cutoffs for children and adolescents with normal weight based on data from 8 countries in different global regions and to examine the relation with cardiovascular risk.
DESIGN AND SETTING: We used pooled data on WC in 113,453 children and adolescents (males 50.2%) aged 4 to 20 years from 8 countries in different regions (Bulgaria, China, Iran, Korea, Malaysia, Poland, Seychelles, and Switzerland). We calculated WC percentile cutoffs in samples including or excluding children with obesity, overweight, or underweight. WC percentiles were generated using the general additive model for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS). We also estimated the predictive power of the WC 90th percentile cutoffs to predict cardiovascular risk using receiver operator characteristics curve analysis based on data from 3 countries that had available data (China, Iran, and Korea). We also examined which WC percentiles linked with WC cutoffs for central obesity in adults (at age of 18 years).
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: WC measured based on recommendation by the World Health Organization.
RESULTS: We validated the performance of the age- and sex-specific 90th percentile WC cutoffs calculated in children and adolescents (6-18 years of age) with normal weight (excluding youth with obesity, overweight, or underweight) by linking the percentile with cardiovascular risk (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.69 for boys; 0.63 for girls). In addition, WC percentile among normal weight children linked relatively well with established WC cutoffs for central obesity in adults (eg, AUC in US adolescents: 0.71 for boys; 0.68 for girls).
CONCLUSION: The international WC cutoffs developed in this study could be useful to screen central obesity in children and adolescents aged 6 to 18 years and allow direct comparison of WC distributions between populations and over time.
METHOD: The study applied a quantitative approach based on the cross-sectional survey design and multistage cluster random sampling. A total of 400 women aged 35-69 years, were surveyed at 4 obstetric and gynecologic clinics affiliated to Tehran University of Medical Sciences in Tehran: the participation levels of 86 women who have had a mammogram were analyzed based on their self-efficacy, belief, social influence, and barriers concerning mammography utilization.
RESULTS: Consistent with the study framework, in bivariate analysis, the higher level of women's participation in breast cancer prevention programs was significantly related to more positive belief about mammography (p< .05), greater social influence on mammography (p< .01) and fewer barriers to mammography (p< .01). Self efficacy (p= .114) was not significantly related to the higher level of participation.
CONCLUSION: Results suggest that women's participation levels in breast cancer prevention programs might be associated with the specific psychosocial factors on breast cancer preventive behavior such as mammography screening.
DESIGN AND SETTINGS: This was a cross-sectional study approved by Mashhad University of Medical Sciences ethics committee and took place in Mashhad, Iran, for a period of 3 years from August 2008 till September 2011.
METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, 113 ASD patients participated and they were categorized into 3 groups on the basis of family relationship between their parents: first group-"no relationship," second group- "third degree relationship," and third group- "far relationship."
RESULTS: Among the 54 male and 59 female ASD patients, the most prevalent type of ASD was ASD secundum (85.0%) followed by sinus venosus (8.8%). A total of 56% patients were present in the first group and 15% and 29% in the second group and the third group, respectively." The relationship between consanguinity and type of ASD (P < .001) and gender (P < .001 each) was observed. The relationship between the age of onset of disease and consanguinity (P=.003) was also observed.
CONCLUSION: Considering the fact that there is a high prevalence of ASD and consanguineous marriage in Iran and bearing in mind the results of the present study, we recommend educating couples about the outcomes of consanguineous marriage in pre-marriage counseling.
METHODS: In this study, a time series analysis was used to determine the variation of variables over time. All series were seasonally adjusted and Poisson regression analysis was performed. In the analysis of meteorological data and emotional distress due to religious mourning events, the best results were obtained by autoregressive moving average (ARMA) (5,5) model.
RESULTS: It was determined that average temperature, sunshine, and rain variables had a significant effect on death. A total of 2375 AMI's were enrolled. Average temperate (°C) and sunshine hours a day (h/day) had a statistically significant relationship with the number of AMI's (β = 0.011, P = 0.014). For every extra degree of temperature increase, the risk of AMI rose [OR = 1.011 (95%CI 1.00, 1.02)]. For every extra hour of sunshine, a day a statistically significant increase [OR = 1.02 (95% CI 1.01, 1.04)] in AMI risk occurred (β = 0.025, P = 0.001). Religious mourning events increase the risk of AMI 1.05 times more. The other independent variables have no significant effects on AMI's (P > 0.05).
CONCLUSION: Results demonstrate that sunshine hours and the average temperature had a significant effect on the risk of AMI. Moreover, emotional distress due to religious morning events increases AMI. More specific research on this topic is recommended.