Displaying publications 1 - 20 of 37 in total

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  1. Alyousifi Y, Ibrahim K, Kang W, Zin WZW
    Environ Monit Assess, 2020 Oct 21;192(11):719.
    PMID: 33083907 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-020-08666-8
    An environmental problem which is of concern across the globe nowadays is air pollution. The extent of air pollution is often studied based on data on the observed level of air pollution. Although the analysis of air pollution data that is available in the literature is numerous, studies on the dynamics of air pollution with the allowance for spatial interaction effects through the use of the Markov chain model are very limited. Accordingly, this study aims to explore the potential impact of spatial dependence over time and space on the distribution of air pollution based on the spatial Markov chain (SMC) model using the longitudinal air pollution index (API) data. This SMC model is pertinent to be applied since the daily data of API from 2012 to 2014 that have been gathered from 37 different air quality stations in Peninsular Malaysia is found to exhibit the property of spatial autocorrelation. Based on the spatial transition probability matrices found from the SMC model, specific characteristics of air pollution are studied in the regional context. These characteristics are the long-run proportion and the mean first passage time for each state of air pollution. It is found that the probability for a particular station's state to remain good is 0.814 if its neighbors are in a good state of air pollution and 0.7082 if its neighbors are in a moderate state. For a particular station having neighbors in a good state of air pollution, the proportion of time for it to continue being in a good state is 0.6. This proportion reduces to 0.4, 0.01, and 0 for the cell of moderate, unhealthy, and very unhealthy states, respectively. In addition, there exists a significant spatial dependence of API, indicating that air pollution for a particular station is dependent on the states of the neighboring stations.
    Matched MeSH terms: Markov Chains
  2. Alyousifi Y, Othman M, Husin A, Rathnayake U
    Ecotoxicol Environ Saf, 2021 Dec 20;227:112875.
    PMID: 34717219 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoenv.2021.112875
    Fuzzy time series (FTS) forecasting models show a great performance in predicting time series, such as air pollution time series. However, they have caused major issues by utilizing random partitioning of the universe of discourse and ignoring repeated fuzzy sets. In this study, a novel hybrid forecasting model by integrating fuzzy time series to Markov chain and C-Means clustering techniques with an optimal number of clusters is presented. This hybridization contributes to generating effective lengths of intervals and thus, improving the model accuracy. The proposed model was verified and validated with real time series data sets, which are the benchmark data of actual trading of Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) and PM10 concentration data from Melaka, Malaysia. In addition, a comparison was made with some existing fuzzy time series models. Furthermore, the mean absolute percentage error, mean squared error and Theil's U statistic were calculated as evaluation criteria to illustrate the performance of the proposed model. The empirical analysis shows that the proposed model handles the time series data sets more efficiently and provides better overall forecasting results than existing FTS models. The results prove that the proposed model has greatly improved the prediction accuracy, for which it outperforms several fuzzy time series models. Therefore, it can be concluded that the proposed model is a better option for forecasting air pollution parameters and any kind of random parameters.
    Matched MeSH terms: Markov Chains
  3. Annazirin Eli, Mardhiyyah Shaffie, Wan Zawiah W
    Sains Malaysiana, 2012;41:1403-1410.
    Statistical modeling of extreme rainfall is essential since the results can often facilitate civil engineers and planners to estimate the ability of building structures to survive under the utmost extreme conditions. Data comprising of annual maximum series (AMS) of extreme rainfall in Alor Setar were fitted to Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution using method of maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. The weakness of ML method in handling small sample is hoped to be tackled by means of Bayesian MCMC simulations in this study. In order to obtain the posterior densities, non-informative and independent priors were employed. Performances of parameter estimations were verified by conducting several goodness-of-fit tests. The results showed that Bayesian MCMC method was slightly better than ML method in estimating GEV parameters.
    Matched MeSH terms: Markov Chains
  4. Apenteng OO, Ismail NA
    PLoS One, 2015;10(7):e0131950.
    PMID: 26147199 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0131950
    The spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and the resulting acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) is a major health concern in many parts of the world, and mathematical models are commonly applied to understand the spread of the HIV epidemic. To understand the spread of HIV and AIDS cases and their parameters in a given population, it is necessary to develop a theoretical framework that takes into account realistic factors. The current study used this framework to assess the interaction between individuals who developed AIDS after HIV infection and individuals who did not develop AIDS after HIV infection (pre-AIDS). We first investigated how probabilistic parameters affect the model in terms of the HIV and AIDS population over a period of time. We observed that there is a critical threshold parameter, R0, which determines the behavior of the model. If R0 ≤ 1, there is a unique disease-free equilibrium; if R0 < 1, the disease dies out; and if R0 > 1, the disease-free equilibrium is unstable. We also show how a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach could be used as a supplement to forecast the numbers of reported HIV and AIDS cases. An approach using a Monte Carlo analysis is illustrated to understand the impact of model-based predictions in light of uncertain parameters on the spread of HIV. Finally, to examine this framework and demonstrate how it works, a case study was performed of reported HIV and AIDS cases from an annual data set in Malaysia, and then we compared how these approaches complement each other. We conclude that HIV disease in Malaysia shows epidemic behavior, especially in the context of understanding and predicting emerging cases of HIV and AIDS.
    Matched MeSH terms: Markov Chains*
  5. Apenteng OO, Osei PP, Oduro B, Kwabla MP, Ismail NA
    Infect Dis Model, 2020;5:755-765.
    PMID: 33073067 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.09.009
    Malaysia is faced with a high HIV/AIDS burden that poses a public health threat. We constructed and applied a compartmental model to understand the spread and control of HIV/AIDS in Malaysia. A simple model for HIV and AIDS disease that incorporates condom and uncontaminated needle-syringes interventions and addresses the relative impact of given treatment therapy for infected HIV newborns on reducing HIV and AIDS incidence is presented. We demonstrated how treatment therapy for new-born babies and the use of condoms or uncontaminated needle-syringes impact the dynamics of HIV in Malaysia. The model was calibrated to HIV and AIDS incidence data from Malaysia from 1986 to 2011. The epidemiological parameters are estimated using Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method. The reproduction number optimal for control of the HIV/AIDS disease obtained suggests that the disease-free equilibrium was unstable during the 25 years. However, the results indicated that the use of condoms and uncontaminated needle-syringes are pivotal intervention control strategies; a comprehensive adoption of the intervention may help stop the spread of HIV disease. Treatment therapy for newborn babies is also of high value; it reduces the epidemic peak. The combined effect of condom use or uncontaminated needle-syringe is more pronounced in controlling the spread of HIV/AIDS.
    Matched MeSH terms: Markov Chains
  6. Aziz F, Arof H, Mokhtar N, Mubin M
    J Neural Eng, 2014 Oct;11(5):056018.
    PMID: 25188730 DOI: 10.1088/1741-2560/11/5/056018
    This paper presents a wheelchair navigation system based on a hidden Markov model (HMM), which we developed to assist those with restricted mobility. The semi-autonomous system is equipped with obstacle/collision avoidance sensors and it takes the electrooculography (EOG) signal traces from the user as commands to maneuver the wheelchair. The EOG traces originate from eyeball and eyelid movements and they are embedded in EEG signals collected from the scalp of the user at three different locations. Features extracted from the EOG traces are used to determine whether the eyes are open or closed, and whether the eyes are gazing to the right, center, or left. These features are utilized as inputs to a few support vector machine (SVM) classifiers, whose outputs are regarded as observations to an HMM. The HMM determines the state of the system and generates commands for navigating the wheelchair accordingly. The use of simple features and the implementation of a sliding window that captures important signatures in the EOG traces result in a fast execution time and high classification rates. The wheelchair is equipped with a proximity sensor and it can move forward and backward in three directions. The asynchronous system achieved an average classification rate of 98% when tested with online data while its average execution time was less than 1 s. It was also tested in a navigation experiment where all of the participants managed to complete the tasks successfully without collisions.
    Matched MeSH terms: Markov Chains*
  7. Aziz F, Arof H, Mokhtar N, Shah NM, Khairuddin ASM, Hanafi E, et al.
    PLoS One, 2018;13(8):e0202092.
    PMID: 30157219 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0202092
    In this paper, an image-based waste collection scheduling involving a node with three waste bins is considered. First, the system locates the three bins and determines the waste level of each bin using four Laws Masks and a set of Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifiers. Next, a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is used to decide on the number of days remaining before waste is collected from the node. This decision is based on the HMM's previous state and current observations. The HMM waste collection scheduling seeks to maximize the number of days between collection visits while preventing waste contamination due to late collection. The proposed system was trained using 100 training images and then tested on 100 test images. Each test image contains three bins that might be shifted, rotated, occluded or toppled over. The upright bins could be empty, partially full or full of garbage of various shapes and sizes. The method achieves bin detection, waste level classification and collection day scheduling rates of 100%, 99.8% and 100% respectively.
    Matched MeSH terms: Markov Chains
  8. Camara M, Jamil NR, Abdullah AFB, Hashim RB, Aliyu AG
    Sci Total Environ, 2020 May 30;737:139800.
    PMID: 32526579 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139800
    The evaluation of the importance of having accurate and representative stations in a network for river water quality monitoring is always a matter of concern. The minimal budget and time demands of water quality monitoring programme may appear very attractive, especially when dealing with large-scale river watersheds. This article proposes an improved methodology for optimising water quality monitoring network for present and forthcoming monitoring of water quality under a case study of the Selangor River watershed in Malaysia, where different monitoring networks are being used by water management authorities. Knowing that the lack of financial resources in developing countries like Malaysia is one of the reasons for inadequate monitoring network density, to identify an optimised network for cost-efficiency benefits in this study, a geo-statistical technique coupled Kendall's W was first applied to analyse the performance of each monitoring station in the existing networks under the monitored water quality parameters. Second, the present and future changes in non-point pollution sources were simulated using the integrated Cellular Automata and Markov chain model (CA-Markov). Third, Station Potential Pollution Score (SPPS) determined based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to weight each station under the changes of non-point pollution sources for 2015, 2024, and 2033 prior to prioritisation. Finally, according to the Kendall's W test on kriging results, the weights of non-point sources from the AHP evaluation and fuzzy membership functions, six most efficient sampling stations were identified to build a robust network for the present and future monitoring of water quality status in the Selangor River watershed. This study proposes a useful approach to the pertinent agencies and management authority concerned to establish appropriate methods for developing an efficient water quality monitoring network for tropical rivers.
    Matched MeSH terms: Markov Chains
  9. Chan KL, Rosli R, Tatarinova TV, Hogan M, Firdaus-Raih M, Low EL
    BMC Bioinformatics, 2017 Jan 27;18(Suppl 1):1426.
    PMID: 28466793 DOI: 10.1186/s12859-016-1426-6
    BACKGROUND: Gene prediction is one of the most important steps in the genome annotation process. A large number of software tools and pipelines developed by various computing techniques are available for gene prediction. However, these systems have yet to accurately predict all or even most of the protein-coding regions. Furthermore, none of the currently available gene-finders has a universal Hidden Markov Model (HMM) that can perform gene prediction for all organisms equally well in an automatic fashion.

    RESULTS: We present an automated gene prediction pipeline, Seqping that uses self-training HMM models and transcriptomic data. The pipeline processes the genome and transcriptome sequences of the target species using GlimmerHMM, SNAP, and AUGUSTUS pipelines, followed by MAKER2 program to combine predictions from the three tools in association with the transcriptomic evidence. Seqping generates species-specific HMMs that are able to offer unbiased gene predictions. The pipeline was evaluated using the Oryza sativa and Arabidopsis thaliana genomes. Benchmarking Universal Single-Copy Orthologs (BUSCO) analysis showed that the pipeline was able to identify at least 95% of BUSCO's plantae dataset. Our evaluation shows that Seqping was able to generate better gene predictions compared to three HMM-based programs (MAKER2, GlimmerHMM and AUGUSTUS) using their respective available HMMs. Seqping had the highest accuracy in rice (0.5648 for CDS, 0.4468 for exon, and 0.6695 nucleotide structure) and A. thaliana (0.5808 for CDS, 0.5955 for exon, and 0.8839 nucleotide structure).

    CONCLUSIONS: Seqping provides researchers a seamless pipeline to train species-specific HMMs and predict genes in newly sequenced or less-studied genomes. We conclude that the Seqping pipeline predictions are more accurate than gene predictions using the other three approaches with the default or available HMMs.

    Matched MeSH terms: Markov Chains
  10. Cheong HT, Ng KT, Ong LY, Chook JB, Chan KG, Takebe Y, et al.
    PLoS One, 2014;9(10):e111236.
    PMID: 25340817 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0111236
    A novel HIV-1 recombinant clade (CRF51_01B) was recently identified among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Singapore. As cases of sexually transmitted HIV-1 infection increase concurrently in two socioeconomically intimate countries such as Malaysia and Singapore, cross transmission of HIV-1 between said countries is highly probable. In order to investigate the timeline for the emergence of HIV-1 CRF51_01B in Singapore and its possible introduction into Malaysia, 595 HIV-positive subjects recruited in Kuala Lumpur from 2008 to 2012 were screened. Phylogenetic relationship of 485 amplified polymerase gene sequences was determined through neighbour-joining method. Next, near-full length sequences were amplified for genomic sequences inferred to be CRF51_01B and subjected to further analysis implemented through Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling and maximum likelihood methods. Based on the near full length genomes, two isolates formed a phylogenetic cluster with CRF51_01B sequences of Singapore origin, sharing identical recombination structure. Spatial and temporal information from Bayesian MCMC coalescent and maximum likelihood analysis of the protease, gp120 and gp41 genes suggest that Singapore is probably the country of origin of CRF51_01B (as early as in the mid-1990s) and featured a Malaysian who acquired the infection through heterosexual contact as host for its ancestral lineages. CRF51_01B then spread rapidly among the MSM in Singapore and Malaysia. Although the importation of CRF51_01B from Singapore to Malaysia is supported by coalescence analysis, the narrow timeframe of the transmission event indicates a closely linked epidemic. Discrepancies in the estimated divergence times suggest that CRF51_01B may have arisen through multiple recombination events from more than one parental lineage. We report the cross transmission of a novel CRF51_01B lineage between countries that involved different sexual risk groups. Understanding the cross-border transmission of HIV-1 involving sexual networks is crucial for effective intervention strategies in the region.
    Matched MeSH terms: Markov Chains
  11. Chong HY, Mohamed Z, Tan LL, Wu DBC, Shabaruddin FH, Dahlui M, et al.
    Br J Dermatol, 2017 Oct;177(4):1102-1112.
    PMID: 28346659 DOI: 10.1111/bjd.15498
    BACKGROUND: A strong association has been documented between HLA-B*15:02 and carbamazepine-induced severe cutaneous adverse reactions (SCARs) in Asians. Human leucocyte antigen testing is potentially valuable in many countries to facilitate early recognition of patient susceptibility to SCARs.

    OBJECTIVES: To determine the cost-effectiveness of universal HLA-B*15:02 screening in preventing carbamazepine-induced Stevens-Johnson syndrome/toxic epidermal necrolysis in an ethnically diverse Malaysian population.

    METHODS: A hybrid model of a decision tree and Markov model was developed to evaluate three strategies for treating newly diagnosed epilepsy among adults: (i) carbamazepine initiation without HLA-B*15:02 screening (current practice); (ii) universal HLA-B*15:02 screening prior to carbamazepine initiation; and (iii) alternative treatment [sodium valproate (VPA)] prescribing without HLA-B*15:02 screening. Base-case analysis and sensitivity analyses were performed over a lifetime time horizon. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated.

    RESULTS: Both universal HLA-B*15:02 screening and VPA prescribing were dominated by current practice. Compared with current practice, universal HLA-B*15:02 screening resulted in a loss of 0·0255 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) at an additional cost of 707 U.S. dollars (USD); VPA prescribing resulted in a loss of 0·2622 QALYs at an additional cost of USD 4127, owing to estimated differences in antiepileptic treatment efficacy.

    CONCLUSIONS: Universal HLA-B*15:02 screening is unlikely to be a cost-effective intervention in Malaysia. However, with the emergence of an ethnically diverse population in many other countries, this may render HLA-B*15:02 screening a viable intervention when an increasing proportion of the population is at risk and an equally effective yet safer antiepileptic drug is available.

    Matched MeSH terms: Markov Chains
  12. Chong SY, Tiňo P, He J, Yao X
    Evol Comput, 2019;27(2):195-228.
    PMID: 29155606 DOI: 10.1162/evco_a_00218
    Studying coevolutionary systems in the context of simplified models (i.e., games with pairwise interactions between coevolving solutions modeled as self plays) remains an open challenge since the rich underlying structures associated with pairwise-comparison-based fitness measures are often not taken fully into account. Although cyclic dynamics have been demonstrated in several contexts (such as intransitivity in coevolutionary problems), there is no complete characterization of cycle structures and their effects on coevolutionary search. We develop a new framework to address this issue. At the core of our approach is the directed graph (digraph) representation of coevolutionary problems that fully captures structures in the relations between candidate solutions. Coevolutionary processes are modeled as a specific type of Markov chains-random walks on digraphs. Using this framework, we show that coevolutionary problems admit a qualitative characterization: a coevolutionary problem is either solvable (there is a subset of solutions that dominates the remaining candidate solutions) or not. This has an implication on coevolutionary search. We further develop our framework that provides the means to construct quantitative tools for analysis of coevolutionary processes and demonstrate their applications through case studies. We show that coevolution of solvable problems corresponds to an absorbing Markov chain for which we can compute the expected hitting time of the absorbing class. Otherwise, coevolution will cycle indefinitely and the quantity of interest will be the limiting invariant distribution of the Markov chain. We also provide an index for characterizing complexity in coevolutionary problems and show how they can be generated in a controlled manner.
    Matched MeSH terms: Markov Chains
  13. Dawood F, Loo CK
    PLoS One, 2016;11(3):e0152003.
    PMID: 26998923 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0152003
    Mirror neurons are visuo-motor neurons found in primates and thought to be significant for imitation learning. The proposition that mirror neurons result from associative learning while the neonate observes his own actions has received noteworthy empirical support. Self-exploration is regarded as a procedure by which infants become perceptually observant to their own body and engage in a perceptual communication with themselves. We assume that crude sense of self is the prerequisite for social interaction. However, the contribution of mirror neurons in encoding the perspective from which the motor acts of others are seen have not been addressed in relation to humanoid robots. In this paper we present a computational model for development of mirror neuron system for humanoid based on the hypothesis that infants acquire MNS by sensorimotor associative learning through self-exploration capable of sustaining early imitation skills. The purpose of our proposed model is to take into account the view-dependency of neurons as a probable outcome of the associative connectivity between motor and visual information. In our experiment, a humanoid robot stands in front of a mirror (represented through self-image using camera) in order to obtain the associative relationship between his own motor generated actions and his own visual body-image. In the learning process the network first forms mapping from each motor representation onto visual representation from the self-exploratory perspective. Afterwards, the representation of the motor commands is learned to be associated with all possible visual perspectives. The complete architecture was evaluated by simulation experiments performed on DARwIn-OP humanoid robot.
    Matched MeSH terms: Markov Chains
  14. Dawood F, Loo CK
    Int J Neural Syst, 2018 May;28(4):1750038.
    PMID: 29022403 DOI: 10.1142/S0129065717500381
    Imitation learning through self-exploration is essential in developing sensorimotor skills. Most developmental theories emphasize that social interactions, especially understanding of observed actions, could be first achieved through imitation, yet the discussion on the origin of primitive imitative abilities is often neglected, referring instead to the possibility of its innateness. This paper presents a developmental model of imitation learning based on the hypothesis that humanoid robot acquires imitative abilities as induced by sensorimotor associative learning through self-exploration. In designing such learning system, several key issues will be addressed: automatic segmentation of the observed actions into motion primitives using raw images acquired from the camera without requiring any kinematic model; incremental learning of spatio-temporal motion sequences to dynamically generates a topological structure in a self-stabilizing manner; organization of the learned data for easy and efficient retrieval using a dynamic associative memory; and utilizing segmented motion primitives to generate complex behavior by the combining these motion primitives. In our experiment, the self-posture is acquired through observing the image of its own body posture while performing the action in front of a mirror through body babbling. The complete architecture was evaluated by simulation and real robot experiments performed on DARwIn-OP humanoid robot.
    Matched MeSH terms: Markov Chains
  15. El-Sharnouby S, Fischer B, Magbanua JP, Umans B, Flower R, Choo SW, et al.
    PLoS One, 2017;12(3):e0172725.
    PMID: 28282436 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0172725
    It is now well established that eukaryote genomes have a common architectural organization into topologically associated domains (TADs) and evidence is accumulating that this organization plays an important role in gene regulation. However, the mechanisms that partition the genome into TADs and the nature of domain boundaries are still poorly understood. We have investigated boundary regions in the Drosophila genome and find that they can be identified as domains of very low H3K27me3. The genome-wide H3K27me3 profile partitions into two states; very low H3K27me3 identifies Depleted (D) domains that contain housekeeping genes and their regulators such as the histone acetyltransferase-containing NSL complex, whereas domains containing moderate-to-high levels of H3K27me3 (Enriched or E domains) are associated with regulated genes, irrespective of whether they are active or inactive. The D domains correlate with the boundaries of TADs and are enriched in a subset of architectural proteins, particularly Chromator, BEAF-32, and Z4/Putzig. However, rather than being clustered at the borders of these domains, these proteins bind throughout the H3K27me3-depleted regions and are much more strongly associated with the transcription start sites of housekeeping genes than with the H3K27me3 domain boundaries. While we have not demonstrated causality, we suggest that the D domain chromatin state, characterised by very low or absent H3K27me3 and established by housekeeping gene regulators, acts to separate topological domains thereby setting up the domain architecture of the genome.
    Matched MeSH terms: Markov Chains
  16. Farrukh Mukhamedov
    MyJurnal
    In the present paper we provide a construction of Quantum Markov chain on a Cayley tree. Moreover, we give a concrete example of such chains, which is shift invariant and has the clustering property
    Matched MeSH terms: Markov Chains
  17. Gandola AE, Dainelli L, Zimmermann D, Dahlui M, Detzel P
    Nutrients, 2019 May 30;11(6).
    PMID: 31151244 DOI: 10.3390/nu11061235
    This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of the consumption of a milk powder product fortified with potassium (+1050.28 mg/day) and phytosterols (+1200 mg/day) to lower systolic blood pressure and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, respectively, and, therefore, the risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke among the 35-75-year-old population in Malaysia. A Markov model was created against a do-nothing option, from a governmental perspective, and with a time horizon of 40 years. Different data sources, encompassing clinical studies, practice guidelines, grey literature, and statistical yearbooks, were used. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the impact of uncertainty on the base case estimates. With an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio equal to international dollars (int$) 22,518.03 per quality-adjusted life-years gained, the intervention can be classified as very cost-effective. If adopted nationwide, it would help prevent at least 13,400 MIs, 30,500 strokes, and more than 10,600 and 17,100 MI- and stroke-related deaths. The discounted cost savings generated for the health care system by those who consume the fortified milk powder would amount to int$8.1 per person, corresponding to 0.7% of the total yearly health expenditure per capita. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the results. Together with other preventive interventions, the consumption of milk powder fortified with potassium and phytosterols represents a cost-effective strategy to attenuate the rapid increase in cardiovascular burden in Malaysia.
    Matched MeSH terms: Markov Chains
  18. Juhan N, Zubairi YZ, Khalid ZM, Mahmood Zuhdi AS
    Iran J Public Health, 2020 Sep;49(9):1642-1649.
    PMID: 33643938 DOI: 10.18502/ijph.v49i9.4080
    Background: Identifying risk factors associated with mortality is important in providing better prognosis to patients. Consistent with that, Bayesian approach offers a great advantage where it rests on the assumption that all model parameters are random quantities and hence can incorporate prior knowledge. Therefore, we aimed to develop a reliable model to identify risk factors associated with mortality among ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) male patients using Bayesian approach.

    Methods: A total of 7180 STEMI male patients from the National Cardiovascular Disease Database-Acute Coronary Syndrome (NCVD-ACS) registry for the years 2006-2013 were enrolled. In the development of univariate and multivariate logistic regression model for the STEMI patients, Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation approach was applied. The performance of the model was assessed through convergence diagnostics, overall model fit, model calibration and discrimination.

    Results: A set of six risk factors for cardiovascular death among STEMI male patients were identified from the Bayesian multivariate logistic model namely age, diabetes mellitus, family history of CVD, Killip class, chronic lung disease and renal disease respectively. Overall model fit, model calibration and discrimination were considered good for the proposed model.

    Conclusion: Bayesian risk prediction model for CVD male patients identified six risk factors associated with mortality. Among the highest risks were Killip class (OR=18.0), renal disease (2.46) and age group (OR=2.43) respectively.

    Matched MeSH terms: Markov Chains
  19. Khalid R, Nawawi MK, Kawsar LA, Ghani NA, Kamil AA, Mustafa A
    PLoS One, 2013;8(4):e58402.
    PMID: 23560037 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0058402
    M/G/C/C state dependent queuing networks consider service rates as a function of the number of residing entities (e.g., pedestrians, vehicles, and products). However, modeling such dynamic rates is not supported in modern Discrete Simulation System (DES) software. We designed an approach to cater this limitation and used it to construct the M/G/C/C state-dependent queuing model in Arena software. Using the model, we have evaluated and analyzed the impacts of various arrival rates to the throughput, the blocking probability, the expected service time and the expected number of entities in a complex network topology. Results indicated that there is a range of arrival rates for each network where the simulation results fluctuate drastically across replications and this causes the simulation results and analytical results exhibit discrepancies. Detail results that show how tally the simulation results and the analytical results in both abstract and graphical forms and some scientific justifications for these have been documented and discussed.
    Matched MeSH terms: Markov Chains
  20. Lertjanyakun V, Chaiyakunapruk N, Kunisawa S, Imanaka Y
    Pharmacoeconomics, 2018 09;36(9):1113-1124.
    PMID: 29707743 DOI: 10.1007/s40273-018-0660-3
    BACKGROUND: Exemestane (EXE), exemestane + everolimus (EXE + EVE), toremifene (TOR), and fulvestrant (FUL) are second-line endocrine therapies for postmenopausal hormone receptor-positive (HR +)/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative (HER2 -) metastatic breast cancer (mBC) in Japan. Although the efficacy of these therapies has been shown in recent studies, cost-effectiveness has not yet been determined in Japan.

    OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine the cost-effectiveness of second-line endocrine therapies for the treatment of postmenopausal women with HR + and HER2 - mBC.

    METHODS: A Markov model was developed to analyze the cost-effectiveness of the therapies over a 15-year time horizon from a public healthcare payer's perspective. The efficacy and utility parameters were determined via a systematic search of the literature. Direct medical care costs were used. A discount rate of 2% was applied for costs and outcomes. Subgroup analysis was performed for non-visceral metastasis. A series of sensitivity analyses, including probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and threshold analysis were performed.

    RESULTS: Base-case analyses estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of 3 million and 6 million Japanese yen (JPY)/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained for TOR and FUL 500 mg relative to EXE, respectively. FUL 250 mg and EXE + EVE were dominated. The overall survival (OS) highly influenced the ICER. With a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 5 million JPY/QALY, the probability of TOR being cost-effective was the highest. Subgroup analysis in non-visceral metastasis revealed 0.4 and 10% reduction in ICER from the base-case results of FUL5 500 mg versus EXE and TOR versus EXE, respectively, while threshold analysis indicated EVE and FUL prices should be reduced 73 and 30%, respectively.

    CONCLUSION: As a second-line therapy for postmenopausal women with HR +/HER2 - mBC, TOR may be cost-effective relative to other alternatives and seems to be the most favorable choice, based on a WTP threshold of 5 million JPY/QALY. FUL 250 mg is expected to be as costly and effective as EXE. The cost-effectiveness of EXE + EVE and FUL 500 mg could be improved by a large price reduction. However, the results are highly sensitive to the hazard ratio of OS. Policy makers should carefully interpret and utilize these findings.

    Matched MeSH terms: Markov Chains
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