The design of family studies to estimate the value of an intraclass correlation coefficient p is considered when ni individuals are to be selected from each of k families, i = 1, 2, ..., k. In particular, the accuracy of a balance design (ni = n, i = 1, 2, ..., k) for estimating p is compared with the accuracy of an unbalanced "natural" design, in which the ni are sampled at random from family size distributions that tend to occur in practice. It is found for two different estimators of p that the balanced design is usually preferable, but only to a small degree if the number of families sampled is greater than 50.
A Monte Carlo simulation based on the population structure of a small-scale human population, the Semai Senoi of Malaysia, has been developed to study the combined effects of group, kin, and individual selection. The population structure resembles D.S. Wilson's structured deme model in that local breeding populations (Semai settlements) are subdivided into trait groups (hamlets) that may be kin-structured and are not themselves demes. Additionally, settlement breeding populations are connected by two-dimensional stepping-stone migration approaching 30% per generation. Group and kin-structured group selection occur among hamlets the survivors of which then disperse to breed within the settlement population. Genetic drift is modeled by the process of hamlet formation; individual selection as a deterministic process, and stepping-stone migration as either random or kin-structured migrant groups. The mechanism for group selection is epidemics of infectious disease that can wipe out small hamlets particularly if most adults become sick and social life collapses. Genetic resistance to a disease is an individual attribute; however, hamlet groups with several resistant adults are less likely to disintegrate and experience high social mortality. A specific human gene, hemoglobin E, which confers resistance to malaria, is studied as an example of the process. The results of the simulations show that high genetic variance among hamlet groups may be generated by moderate degrees of kin-structuring. This strong microdifferentiation provides the potential for group selection. The effect of group selection in this case is rapid increase in gene frequencies among the total set of populations. In fact, group selection in concert with individual selection produced a faster rate of gene frequency increase among a set of 25 populations than the rate within a single unstructured population subject to deterministic individual selection. Such rapid evolution with plausible rates of extinction, individual selection, and migration and a population structure realistic in its general form, has implications for specific human polymorphisms such as hemoglobin variants and for the more general problem of the tempo of evolution as well.
For the specific absorbed dose constant for 60Co photons, three values quoted directly in the literature and two derived indirectly from published information are reported. The three publications giving the direct values mentioned no medium of absorption, whereas the other two specify tissue. A database of the specific absorbed dose constant is generated for each of 14 media namely air, water, bone and 11 types of soft tissue. These values are consistent with the three directly quoted values plus one of the indirectly obtained values. Air is found to be unlikely as the medium for the first three; and appropriate media for these are suggested. For the other two values, the generated database suggests that one is too small to be accurate; while the other is correct for tissue (as stated in the publication). An apparent error of 10(3) is identified in one of the values directly quoted.
There has been, and is still, concern about the high elastic modulus of Ti alloys compared to bone. Any reduction in the Young's modulus value of the implant is expected to enhance stress redistribution to the adjacent bone tissues, minimize stress shielding and eventually prolong device lifetime. Dynamic Monte Carlo simulation is used to predict the gradual reduction in Young's modulus values between the bulk of Ti alloys and the modified surface layers due to Ca ion implantation. The simulation can be used as a screening step when applying new alloys and/or coatings.
A Monte Carlo simulation of the Malaysian nuclear reactor has been performed using MCNP Version 5 code. The purpose of the work is the determination of the multiplication factor (k eff ) for TRIGA Mark II research reactor in Malaysia based on Monte Carlo method. This work has been performed to calculate the value of k eff for two cases, which are the control rod either fully withdrawn or fully inserted to construct a complete model of the TRIGA Mark II PUSPATI Reactor (RTP). The RTP core was modeled as close as possible to the real core and the results of k eff from MCNP5 were obtained. When the control-fuel rods were fully inserted, the k eff value indicates the RTP reactor was in the subcritical condition with a value of 0.98370 ± 0.00054. When the control-fuel rods were fully withdrawn the value of k eff value indicates the RTP reactor is in the supercritical condition, that is 1.10773 ± 0.00083.
In the past, simulating charge dynamics in solid state devices, such as current mobility, transient current drift velocities are done on mainframe systems or on high performance computing facilities. This is due to the fact that, such simulations are costly in terms of computational requirements when implemented on a single processor-based personal computers (PCs). When simulating charge dynamics, large ensembles of particles are usually preferred, such as exceeding 40000 particles, to ensure a numerically sound result. When implementing this type of simulation on a single processor PCs using the conventional ensemble or single particle Monte Carlo method, the computational time is very long even on the fast 2.0 MHz PCs. Lately, a more efficient, easily made available tools and cost effective solution to this problem is the application of an array of PCs employed in a parallel application. This is done using a computer cluster network in a master-slave model. In this paper we report the development of a LINUX cluster for the purpose of implementing parallel ensemble Monte Carlo modelling for solid states device. We have proposed the use of Parallel Virtual Machine (PVM) standards when running the parallel algorithm of the ensemble MC simulation. Some results of the development are also presented in this paper.
In obstetrics, fetal heart rate (FHR) detection remains the standard for intrapartum assessment of fetal well-being. In this paper, a low-power (< 55 mW) optical technique is proposed for transabdominal FHR detection using near-infrared photoplesthysmography (PPG). A beam of IR-LED (890 nm) propagates through to the maternal abdomen and fetal tissues, resulting in a mixed signal detected by a low-noise detector situated at a distance of 4 cm. Low-noise amplification and 24-bit analog-to-digital converter resolution ensure minimum effect of quantization noise. After synchronous detection, the mixed signal is processed by an adaptive filter to extract the fetal signal, whereas the PPG from the mother's index finger is the reference input. A total of 24 datasets were acquired from six subjects at 37 +/- 2 gestational weeks. Results show a correlation coefficient of 0.96 (p-value < 0.001) between the proposed optical and ultrasound FHR, with a maximum error of 4%. Assessment of the effect of probe position on detection accuracy indicates that the probe should be close to fetal tissues, but not necessarily restricted to head or buttocks.
Neutron aperture is one of the collimator components in a neutron radiography facility. The optimum design of neutron aperture is very importance in order to obtain largest L/D ratio with highest thermal neutron flux and low gamma-rays at the image plane. In this study, the optimization of neutron aperture parameters were done using Monte Carlo N-Particle Transport Code, version five (MCNP5). This code has a capability to simulate the neutron, photon, and electron or coupled of neutron/photon/electron transport, including the capability to calculate eigen values for critical system. The aperture parameters concerned in this study are the selection of best aperture material, aperture thickness, aperture position and aperture center hole diameter. In these simulations, vacuum beam port medium was applied.
The objective of this study was to compare the acquired image of teflon, human bone equivalent material on a Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography (PET/CT) scanner with Monte Carlo simulation (MCNP). The cylindrical shape teflon phantom with dimensions of 19.5 cm length and 5.0 cm diameter was used for imaging with different settings of kilovolts (kV) and milliamperes (mA) of PET/CT. In this simulation, the photon flux in each pixel was accumulated by the Flux Image Radiograph (FIR) tally as flux image detectors and the image was plotted using Microsoft Office Excel. Results show that MCNP image was comparable with that of CT image and the obtained MCNP image depends on pixels size of the FIR tally.
The present study determined the pharmacokinetic profile of vancomycin in premature Malaysian infants. A one-compartment infusion model with first-order elimination was fitted to serum vancomycin concentration data (n = 835 points) obtained retrospectively from the drug monitoring records of 116 premature newborn infants. Vancomycin concentrations were estimated by a fluorescence polarization immunoassay. Population and individual estimates of clearance and distribution volume and the factors which affected the variability observed for the values of these parameters were obtained using a population pharmacokinetic modeling approach. The predictive performance of the population model was evaluated by visual inspections of diagnostic plots and nonparametric bootstrapping with replacement. Dosing guidelines targeting a value of > or =400 for the area under the concentration-time curve over 24 h in the steady state divided by the MIC (AUC(24)/MIC ratio) were explored using Monte Carlo simulation. Body size (weight), postmenstrual age, and small-for-gestational-age status are important factors explaining the between-subject variability of vancomycin pharmacokinetic parameter values for premature neonates. The typical population parameter estimates of clearance and distribution volume for a 1-kg premature appropriate-for-gestational-age neonate with a postmenstrual age of 30 weeks were 0.0426 liters/h and 0.523 liters, respectively. There was a 20% reduction in clearance for small-for-gestational-age infants compared to the level for the appropriate-for-gestational-age control. Dosage regimens based on a priori target response values were formulated. In conclusion, the pharmacokinetic parameter values for vancomycin in premature Malaysian neonates were estimated. Improved dosage regimens based on a priori target response values were formulated by incorporating body size, postmenstrual age, and small-for-gestational-age status, using Monte Carlo simulations with the model-estimated pharmacokinetic parameter values.
The range-gated imaging systems are reliable underwater imaging system with the capability to minimize backscattering effect from turbid media. The tail-gating technique has been developed to fine tune the signal to backscattering ratio and hence improve the gated image quality. However, the tail-gating technique has limited image quality enhancement in high turbidity levels. In this paper, we developed a numerical model of range-gated underwater imaging system for near target in turbid medium. The simulation results matched the experimental work favorably. Further investigation using this numerical model shows that the multiple scattering components of the backscattering noise dominate for propagation length larger than 4.2 Attenuation Length (AL). This has limited the enhancement of tail-gating technique in high turbidity conditions.
The objectives of this study were predicting the transmission and survival of L. monocytogenes in cooked ham during supply chain. Cooked ham are frequently contaminated with L. monocytogenes during postprocessing steps through contact on surface of processing, handling, packaging equipment. Transfer rate of L. monocytogenes on static and dynamic condition in various surface type was investigated. The prevalence and level of L. monocytogenes in cooked ham at plant as well as the prevalence of unsatisfactory processing at retail were studied. A Monte Carlo simulation model was created by using @risk. The simulation predicted that the prevalence was 11.76 % with 90% confidence interval of 2% to 25% and estimated level was -4.02 log CFU/cm2. It was estimated to be occurred on slicing step at plant. Our results suggest that, the prevalence and level of L. monocytogenes can be reduced by Good Handling Process application and/or HACCP application.
Outliers in the X-direction or high leverage points are the latest known source of multicollinearity. Multicollinearity is a nonorthogonality of two or more explanatory variables in multiple regression models, which may have important influential impacts on interpreting a fitted regression model. In this paper, we performed Monte Carlo simulation studies to achieve two main objectives. The first objective was to study the effect of certain magnitude and percentage of high leverage points, which are two important issues in tending the high leverage points to be collinearity-enhancing observations, on the multicollinarity pattern of the data. The second objective was to investigate in which situations these points do make different degrees of multicollinearity, such as moderate or severe. According to the simulation results, high leverage points should be in large magnitude for at least two explanatory variables to guarantee that they are the cause of multicollinearity problems. We also proposed some practical Lower Bound (LB) and Upper Bound (UB) for High Leverage Collinearity Influential Measure (HLCIM) which is an essential measure in detecting the degree of multicollinearity. A well-known example is used to confirm the simulation results.
BEAMnrc was used to derive the X-ray spectra, from which HVL and homogeneity coefficient were determined, for different kVp and filtration settings. Except for the peak at 61 keV, the spectra are in good agreement with the IPEM report 78 data for the case of filtered beams, whereas the unfiltered beams exhibit softer spectra. Although the current attenuation data deviates from the IPEM 78 data by ~±0.5%, this has negligible effects on the calculated HVL values.
It is now evident that the estimation of logistic regression parameters, using Maximum LikelihoodEstimator (MLE), suffers a huge drawback in the presence of outliers. An alternative approach is touse robust logistic regression estimators, such as Mallows type leverage dependent weights estimator(MALLOWS), Conditionally Unbiased Bounded Influence Function estimator (CUBIF), Bianco andYohai estimator (BY), and Weighted Bianco and Yohai estimator (WBY). This paper investigates therobustness of the preceding robust estimators by using real data sets and Monte Carlo simulations. Theresults indicate that the MLE behaves poorly in the presence of outliers. On the other hand, the WBYestimator is more efficient than the other existing robust estimators. Thus, it is suggested that the WBYestimator be employed when outliers are present in the data to obtain a reliable estimate.
The Malaysian 1 MW TRIGA MARK II research reactor at Malaysian Nuclear Agency is designed to effectively implement the various fields of basic nuclear research, manpower training, and production of radioisotopes for their use in agriculture, industry, and medicine. This study deals with the calculation of neutron flux and power distribution in PUSPATI TRIGA REACTOR (RTP) 14th core configuration. The 3-D continuous energy Monte Carlo code MCNP was used to develop a versatile and accurate full model of the TRIGA core and fuels. The model represents in detailed all components of the core with literally no physical approximation. Continuous energy cross-section data from the more recent nuclear data as well as S (α, β) thermal neutron scattering functions distributed with the MCNP code were used. Results of calculations are analyzed and discussed.
This paper aims to estimate the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) parameters and predicts the T-year return levels of extreme rainfall events using the Partial Duration Series (PDS) method based on the hourly rainfall data of five stations in Peninsular Malaysia. In particular, the GPD parameters are estimated using five methods namely the method of Moments (MOM), the probability weighted moments (PWM), the L-moments (LMOM), the Trimmed L-moments (TLMOM) and the Maximum Likelihood (ML) and the performance of the T-year return level of each estimation method is analyzed based on the RMSE measure obtained from Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, we suggest the weighted average model, a model which assigns the inverse variance of several methods as weights, to estimate the T-year return level. This paper contributes to the hydrological literatures in terms of three main elements. Firstly, we suggest the use
of hourly rainfall data as an alternative to provide a more detailed and valuable information for the analysis of extreme rainfall events. Secondly, this study applies five methods of parametric approach for estimating the GPD parameters and predicting the T-year return level. Finally, in this study we propose the weighted average model, a model that assigns the inverse variance of several methods as weights, for the estimation of the T-year return level.
Statistical modeling of extreme rainfall is essential since the results can often facilitate civil engineers and planners to estimate the ability of building structures to survive under the utmost extreme conditions. Data comprising of annual maximum series (AMS) of extreme rainfall in Alor Setar were fitted to Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution using method of maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. The weakness of ML method in handling small sample is hoped to be tackled by means of Bayesian MCMC simulations in this study. In order to obtain the posterior densities, non-informative and independent priors were employed. Performances of parameter estimations were verified by conducting several goodness-of-fit tests. The results showed that Bayesian MCMC method was slightly better than ML method in estimating GEV parameters.
This article investigates the performance of two-sample pseudo-median based procedure in testing differences between groups. The procedure is a modification of the one-sample Wilcoxon procedure using the pseudo-median of differences between group values as the central measure of location. The test was conducted on two groups with moderate sample
sizes of symmetric and asymmetric distributions. The performance of the procedure was measured in terms of Type I error and power rates computed via Monte Carlo methods. The performance of the procedure was compared against the t-test and Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test. The findings from this study revealed that the pseudo-median procedure performed very
well in controlling Type I error rates close to the nominal value. The pseudo-median procedure outperformed the MannWhitney-Wilcoxon test and is comparable to the t-test in controlling Type I error and maintaining adequate power.
The 1 MW TRIGA MARK II research reactor at Malaysian Nuclear Agency achieved initial
criticality on June 28, 1982. The reactor is designed to effectively implement the various fields of
basic nuclear research, manpower training, and production of radioisotopes. This
paperdescribes the reactor parameters calculation for the PUSPATI TRIGA REACTOR (RTP);
focusing on the application of the developed reactor 3D model for criticality calculation,
analysis of power and neutron flux distribution and depletion study of TRIGA fuel. The 3D
continuous energy Monte Carlo code MCNP was used to develop a versatile and accurate full
model of the TRIGA reactor. The consistency and accuracy of the developed RTP MCNP model
was established by comparing calculations to the experimental results and TRIGLAV
code.MCNP and TRIGLAV criticality prediction of the critical core loading are in a very good
agreement with the experimental results.Power peaking factor calculated with TRIGLAV are
systematically higher than the MCNP but the trends are the same.Depletion calculation by both
codes show differences especially at high burnup.The results are conservative and can be
applied to show the reliability of MCNP code and the model both for design and verification of
the reactor core, and future calculation of its neutronic parameters.