OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study is to provide advanced surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission that account for speed, acceleration, jerk, persistence, and weekly shifts, to better understand country risk for explosive growth and those countries who are managing the pandemic successfully. Existing surveillance coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until an effective vaccine is developed. We provide novel indicators to measure disease transmission.
METHODS: Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 330 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in East Asia and the Pacific as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R.
RESULTS: The standard surveillance metrics for Indonesia, the Philippines, and Myanmar were concerning as they had the largest new caseloads at 4301, 2588, and 1387, respectively. When looking at the acceleration of new COVID-19 infections, we found that French Polynesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines had rates at 3.17, 0.22, and 0.06 per 100,000. These three countries also ranked highest in terms of jerk at 15.45, 0.10, and 0.04, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: Two of the most populous countries in East Asia and the Pacific, Indonesia and the Philippines, have alarming surveillance metrics. These two countries rank highest in new infections in the region. The highest rates of speed, acceleration, and positive upwards jerk belong to French Polynesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, and may result in explosive growth. While all countries in East Asia and the Pacific need to be cautious about reopening their countries since outbreaks are likely to occur in the second wave of COVID-19, the country of greatest concern is the Philippines. Based on standard and enhanced surveillance, the Philippines has not gained control of the COVID-19 epidemic, which is particularly troubling because the country ranks 4th in population in the region. Without extreme and rigid social distancing, quarantines, hygiene, and masking to reverse trends, the Philippines will remain on the global top 5 list of worst COVID-19 outbreaks resulting in high morbidity and mortality. The second wave will only exacerbate existing conditions and increase COVID-19 transmissions.
METHODS: A total of eight cattle, goat and sheep farms in six states in Peninsular Malaysia participated in a cross-sectional survey between August and October 2013.
RESULTS: A total of 151 (72.2%) out of 209 farmworkers answered the questionnaire. More than half of the farmworkers (n = 91) reported an experience of tick bites. Farms with monthly acaricide treatment had significantly (P<0.05) a low report of tick bites. Tick bite exposure rates did not differ significantly among field workers and administrative workers. The mean total knowledge score of ticks for the overall farmworkers was 13.6 (SD±3.2) from 20. The mean total tick bite preventive practices score for all farmworkers was 8.3 (SD±3.1) from 15. Fixed effect model showed the effects of four factors on tick bite prevention: (1) farms, (2) job categories (administrative workers vs. field workers), (3) perceived severity of tick bites, and (4) perceived barriers to tick bite prevention.
CONCLUSIONS: A high proportion of farmworkers, including administrative workers, reported an experience of tick bites. The effectiveness of monthly acaricide treatment was declared by low reports of tick bites on these farms. Tick bite preventive practices were insufficient, particularly in certain farms and for administrative workers. Our findings emphasise the need to have education programmes for all farmworkers and targeting farms with low prevention practices. Education and health programmes should increase the perception of the risk of tick bites and remove perceived barriers of tick bite prevention.
OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence, risk factors and health outcomes associated with polypharmacy in a cohort of urban community-dwelling older adults receiving chronic medications in Malaysia.
METHODS: This was a baseline study in the Malaysian Elders Longitudinal Research cohort. The inclusion criteria were individuals aged ≥55years and taking at least one medication chronically (≥3 months). Participants were interviewed using a structured questionnaire during home visits where medications taken were reviewed. Health outcomes assessed were frequency of falls, functional disability, potential inappropriate medication use (PIMs), potential drug-drug interactions (PDDIs), healthcare utilisation and quality of life (QoL). Risk factors and health outcomes associated with polypharmacy (≥5 medications including dietary supplements) were determined using multivariate regression models.
RESULTS: A total of 1256 participants were included with a median (interquartile range) age of 69(63-74) years. The prevalence of polypharmacy was 45.9% while supplement users made up 56.9% of the cohort. The risk factors associated with increasing medication use were increasing age, Indian ethnicity, male, having a higher number of comorbidities specifically those diagnosed with cardiovascular, endocrine and gastrointestinal disorders, as well as supplement use. Health outcomes significantly associated with polypharmacy were PIMS, PDDIs and increased healthcare utilisation.
CONCLUSION: A significant proportion of older adults on chronic medications were exposed to polypharmacy and use of dietary supplements contributed significantly to this. Medication reviews are warranted to reduce significant polypharmacy related issues in the older population.
Methods: Longitudinal surveillance was conducted over a period of 2 months among hospitals in Lahore, Pakistan. Antibiotic treatment was considered inappropriate on the basis of a wrong dosage regimen, wrong indication, or both based on the British National Formulary.
Results: A total of 2022 antibiotics were given to 1185 patients. Out of the total prescribed, approximately two-thirds of the study population (70.3%) had at least one inappropriate antimicrobial. Overall, 27.2% of patients had respiratory tract infections, and out of these, 62.8% were considered as having inappropriate therapy. Cephalosporins were extensively prescribed among patients, and in many cases, this was inappropriate (67.2%). Penicillins were given to 283 patients, out of which 201 (71.0%) were prescribed for either the wrong indication or dosage or both. Significant variations were also observed regarding inappropriate prescribing for several antimicrobials including the carbapenems (70.9%), aminoglycosides (35.8%), fluoroquinolones (64.2%), macrolides (74.6%) and other antibacterials (73.1%).
Conclusion: Educational interventions, institutional guidelines, and antimicrobial stewardship programs need to be developed to enhance future appropriate antimicrobial use in hospitals in Pakistan. Policies by healthcare and Government officials are also needed to minimize inappropriate antibiotic use.
METHODS: Clinicians reporting patients with suspected AMS to GeoSentinel submitted demographic, clinical, itinerary, and exposure data. We defined a probable case as travel to Tioman Island after 1 March 2011, eosinophilia (>5%), clinical or laboratory-supported myositis, and negative trichinellosis serology. Case confirmation required histologic observation of sarcocysts or isolation of Sarcocystis species DNA from muscle biopsy.
RESULTS: Sixty-eight patients met the case definition (62 probable and 6 confirmed). All but 2 resided in Europe; all were tourists and traveled mostly during the summer months. The most frequent symptoms reported were myalgia (100%), fatigue (91%), fever (82%), headache (59%), and arthralgia (29%); onset clustered during 2 distinct periods: "early" during the second and "late" during the sixth week after departure from the island. Blood eosinophilia and elevated serum creatinine phosphokinase (CPK) levels were observed beginning during the fifth week after departure. Sarcocystis nesbitti DNA was recovered from 1 muscle biopsy.
CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians evaluating travelers returning ill from Malaysia with myalgia, with or without fever, should consider AMS, noting the apparent biphasic aspect of the disease, the later onset of elevated CPK and eosinophilia, and the possibility for relapses. The exact source of infection among travelers to Tioman Island remains unclear but needs to be determined to prevent future illnesses.
METHODS: All T2DM patients, who made at least one visit to any of the 58 public health clinics in Kedah during August 2016 and July 2017, were included in this study. The sample was selected from the National Diabetes Registry using the stratified random sampling method. The information on the demographic and clinical characteristics, laboratory findings and pharmacological treatment was gathered from medical records of patients. The differences in mean HbA1C levels across subgroups of each variable were tested using the general linear model. The evaluation of the appropriateness of treatment was performed based on the recommendations of the latest Clinical Practice Guidelines for T2DM.
RESULTS: The patients (n = 23,557) were mainly female (63.4%), of Malay ethnicity (80.1%) and middle-aged (62.2%), with a mean duration of T2DM of 6.2±7.16 years. Only 15.6% of them had a HbA1C level <6.5%, and 28.6% did not have their HbA1C levels tested over the 12-month period. Yet, the underutilization of combination treatment (≥2 antidiabetic agents) and insulin in the patients with a poor glycemic control was evident. Retinopathy emerged as the most prevalent diabetes-related complication (12.6%). Along with those with a longer duration of T2DM, the patients who were younger, female and of Indian ethnicity were found to generally have a poorer glycemic control.
CONCLUSION: This study discloses the suboptimal T2DM management at the primary care level in Kedah, which warrants a statewide plan for improvement.