METHODS: In this systematic review, meta-analysis, and modelling study, we searched PubMed, Ovid, and Web of Science for articles published from database inception until Sept 26, 2022, for prospective and retrospective cross-sectional studies that addressed serological chikungunya virus infection in any geographical region, age group, and population subgroup and for longitudinal prospective and retrospective cohort studies with data on chronic chikungunya or hospital admissions in people with chikungunya. We did a systematic review of studies on chikungunya seroprevalence and fitted catalytic models to each survey to estimate location-specific FOI (ie, the rate at which susceptible individuals acquire chikungunya infection). We performed a meta-analysis to estimate the proportion of symptomatic patients with laboratory-confirmed chikungunya who had chronic chikungunya or were admitted to hospital following infection. We used a random-effects model to assess the relationship between chronic sequelae and follow-up length using linear regression. The systematic review protocol is registered online on PROSPERO, CRD42022363102.
FINDINGS: We identified 60 studies with data on seroprevalence and chronic chikungunya symptoms done across 76 locations in 38 countries, and classified 17 (22%) of 76 locations as endemic settings and 59 (78%) as epidemic settings. The global long-term median annual FOI was 0·007 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·003-0·010) and varied from 0·0001 (0·00004-0·0002) to 0·113 (0·07-0·20). The highest estimated median seroprevalence at age 10 years was in south Asia (8·0% [95% UI 6·5-9·6]), followed by Latin America and the Caribbean (7·8% [4·9-14·6]), whereas median seroprevalence was lowest in the Middle East (1·0% [0·5-1·9]). We estimated that 51% (95% CI 45-58) of people with laboratory-confirmed symptomatic chikungunya had chronic disability after infection and 4% (3-5) were admitted to hospital following infection.
INTERPRETATION: We inferred subnational heterogeneity in long-term average annual FOI and transmission dynamics and identified both endemic and epidemic settings across different countries. Brazil, Ethiopia, Malaysia, and India included both endemic and epidemic settings. Long-term average annual FOI was higher in epidemic settings than endemic settings. However, long-term cumulative incidence of chikungunya can be similar between large outbreaks in epidemic settings with a high FOI and endemic settings with a relatively low FOI.
FUNDING: International Vaccine Institute.
Objective: To investigate the validity and pattern of DSM-5-defined BQ use disorder (BUD) and its association with oral potentially malignant disorder (OPMD) among Asian populations.
Design, Setting, and Participants: In-person interviews were conducted from January 1, 2009, to February 28, 2010, among a random sample of 8922 noninstitutionalized adults from the Asian Betel-quid Consortium study, an Asian representative survey of 6 BQ-endemic populations. Statistical analysis was performed from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2016.
Main Outcomes and Measures: Participants were evaluated for BUD using DSM-5 criteria for substance use disorder and for OPMD using a clinical oral examination. Current users of BQ with 0 to 1 symptoms were classified as having no BUD, those with 2 to 3 symptoms as having mild BUD, those with 4 to 5 symptoms as having moderate BUD, and those with 6 or more symptoms as having severe BUD.
Results: Among the 8922 participants (4564 women and 4358 men; mean [SD] age, 44.2 [0.2] years), DSM-5 symptoms showed sufficient unidimensionality to act as a valid measure for BUD. The 12-month prevalence of DSM-5-defined BUD in the 6 study populations was 18.0% (mild BUD, 3.2%; moderate BUD, 4.3%; and severe BUD, 10.5%). The 12-month proportion of DSM-5-defined BUD among current users of BQ was 86.0% (mild BUD, 15.5%; moderate BUD, 20.6%; and severe BUD, 50.0%). Sex, age, low educational level, smoking, and drinking were significantly associated with BUD. Among individuals who used BQ, family use, high frequency of use, and amount of BQ used were significantly linked to moderate to severe BUD. Compared with individuals who did not use BQ, those who used BQ and had no BUD showed a 22.0-fold (95% CI, 4.3-112.4) risk of OPMD (P